• 本期要文(可全文下载) •

### 淮河流域上消化道肿瘤与环境污染的模型分析

1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
2. 中国疾病预防控制中心, 北京 100050
• 收稿日期:2012-05-13 修回日期:2012-07-12 出版日期:2012-08-25 发布日期:2012-08-22
• 通讯作者: 庄大方(1963-),男,博士生导师,研究员,研究方向为资源环境数据库建设与土地利用变化动态监测技术的研究。E-mail:zhuangdf@lreis.ac.cn E-mail:zhuangdf@lreis.ac.cn
• 作者简介:戚晓鹏(1975-),女,黑龙江省哈尔滨人,博士研究生,副研究员,研究方向为公共卫生信息化以及GIS空间分析在公共卫生领域的应用研究。E-mail:caroline_qi@163.com
• 基金资助:

"十一五"科技支撑项目"淮河流域水污染与肿瘤的相关性评估研究"(2006BAI19B03)。

### Model Analysis of Upper Digestive Tract Cancer and Environmental Pollution in Huaihe River Watershed

QI Xiaopeng1,2, JI Wei1, REN Hongyan1, GUO Yan2, ZHOU Maigeng2, YANG Gonghuan2, Zhuang Dafang*1

1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
2. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
• Received:2012-05-13 Revised:2012-07-12 Online:2012-08-25 Published:2012-08-22

Abstract:

The Huaihe River watershed has been suffering from industrial point pollution and other non-point pollution since 1970s. The media has reported the emergence of ‘cancer village'. Spatial distribution pattern on upper digestive tract cancer and environmental factors was studied in 14 pilot counties including 5810 villages in Huaihe River watershed. From the multiple perspectives such as watershed and jurisdictional areas, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Robust regression model were used for environmental factors selection. Robust regression model can detect abnormal value and put the weight for each of them. Surface water, phreatic water, river density, soil PAHs, fertilizer, population density and economical density (GDP) were imported into the model. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model was used to locally detect the impact of different environmental factors on Empirical Bayes smoothed upper digestive tract cancer mortality. Through the correlative analysis of them, the risk assessment model of upper digestive tract cancer mortality was developed. Based on the regression coefficient of each environmental factor and statistical test in each pilot, the local main environmental factors were extracted. Even six factors were imported into the global regression model, the impact of each factor was different in distinct areas. In general, all the selected environmental factors show the positive correlation with the upper digestive tract cancer mortality except the surface water quality level and GDP. However the pollution type was diverse in different area based on the regression coefficient of each factor. The main findings were listed as follow: fertilizer amount, soil PAHs, GDP and river density are the main factors in Jiangsu segment in Huaihe River watershed; main factors in Anhui segment included soil PAHs and fertilizer amount; main factors in Henan segment included phreatic water, river density and fertilizer amount, With Shenqiu County, as one of the pilots in Henan, showed the strong positive correlation between surface water and cancer mortality; some kind of environmental risk factors were also detected in Shandong segment, but the result showed no correlation between these risk factors and cancer mortality, which needed to be studied any further.