融合多源空间数据的城市暴雨级联灾害情景态势转化推演方法
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刘昭阁, 李向阳, 朱晓寒
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A Method for Urban Rainstorm Cascading Disaster Scenario Converting Deduction by Integrating Multi-Source Spatial Data
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LIU Zhaoge, LI Xiangyang, ZHU Xiaohan
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表4 推演结果的不确定性分析
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Tab. 4 Uncertainty analysis of the deduction results
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| 样本序号 | 降雨量强度( f1 = 1)初始概率 | | 地理网格大小 | | 原始值 | 变更后 | 泥石流流量(f11 = 1)概率偏差 | 原始值/ m2 | 变更后 | 泥石流流量(f11 = 1)概率偏差 | | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.13 | | 60 | 78 | 0.05 | | 2 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.25 | 100 | 130 | 0.12 | | 3 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.28 | 70 | 91 | 0.23 | | 4 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.09 | 110 | 143 | 0.18 | | 5 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.32 | 90 | 117 | 0.10 | | 6 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.16 | 80 | 104 | 0.13 | | 7 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.22 | 150 | 195 | 0.27 | | 8 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.08 | 140 | 182 | 0.30 | | 9 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.15 | 70 | 91 | 0.21 | | 10 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.21 | 50 | 65 | 0.09 | | 均值 | - | - | 0.19 | - | - | 0.17 |
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