中国城市蔓延阶段特征及驱动因素分析

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.170602

地球信息科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (3): 302-310.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.170602

• 地理空间分析综合应用 • 上一篇下一篇

中国城市蔓延阶段特征及驱动因素分析

单葆国^1,²(), 邵玺³, 余姗³, 贺三维^3,^4,^*()

1. 华北电力大学资源与环境系统优化教育部重点实验室,北京 102206
2. 国网能源研究院有限公司,北京 102209
3. 中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,武汉 430073
4. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101

收稿日期:2017-04-30 修回日期:2017-08-25 出版日期:2018-03-20 发布日期:2018-03-20
通讯作者: 贺三维 E-mail:shanbaoguo@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn;sanwei.87@163.com
作者简介:
作者简介：单葆国（1971-）,男,教授级高工,硕士,研究方向为能源电力供需预测及预警研究。E-mail: shanbaoguo@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
基金资助:
国家电网公司总部科技项目资助;国家自然科学基金项目（41601162）;中南财经政法大学国家级大学生创新训练项目(201710520126).

Analysis on Phase Characteristics and Driving Factors of Urban Sprawl in China

SHAN Baoguo^1,²(), SHAO Xi³, YU Shan³, HE Sanwei^3,^4,^*()

1. MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2. State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China
3. School of Public Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, China
4. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2017-04-30 Revised:2017-08-25 Online:2018-03-20 Published:2018-03-20
Contact: HE Sanwei E-mail:shanbaoguo@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn;sanwei.87@163.com
Supported by:
Science and technology Project of State Grid;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41601162;Zhongnan University of Economics and Law National College Students Innovation Training Project, No.201710520126.

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市蔓延是城市快速发展过程中普遍出现的问题。本文在总结国内外理论和实证研究的基础上,采用建成区面积对城镇人口的弹性来表征城市蔓延,对全国214个地级市市辖区1996-2014年的城市蔓延阶段特征进行分析,从产业发展、政府推动作用、教育发展水平、全球化水平、交通发展水平、市场化水平这些方面,进一步对城市蔓延的驱动力展开深入探究。结果表明：①城市蔓延问题具有路径依赖,在以经济快速增长为目标的发展纲要指导下,城市往往持续蔓延。②第二产业发展将显著加剧城市蔓延,但地方政府可以通过推动第三产业发展、吸引外资优化经济发展结构,缓解城市蔓延问题。③道路建设、市场化水平、高校教育水平对城市蔓延的影响较小或并不显著。最后本文提出了控制城市蔓延问题的政策建议。

关键词: 城市蔓延, 蔓延特征, 驱动因素, 市辖区, 面板数据分析

Abstract:

Urban sprawl is a common problem in the process of rapid urban development. Due to differences in economic systems and other aspects, the characteristics and driving factors of urban sprawl in China are quite different from those in Western countries. The urban sprawl in China is accompanied by the disorderly development of land in the process of rapid urbanization. Based on the summary of domestic and international theoretical and empirical research, this paper chooses the elasticity of urbanized land to urbanized population to characterize the urban sprawl. This article analyzes the urban sprawl of 214 prefecture-level municipal districts from 1996 to 2014, and summarizes the following characteristics of its sprawl tendency: stable sprawl, adjustable sprawl, steady and high-speed sprawl, steady and low-speed sprawl. We summarize the following characteristics of its sprawl intensity: no sprawl, general spread and highly sprawl. In addition, we construct the panel model to explore the driving factors of urban sprawl from the aspects of the industrial structure, the government expenditure, the education development level, the traffic development level, the globalization level and market-oriented level. The results are as follows: (1) the issue of urban sprawl has a path dependence. Under the guidance of the development program with rapid economic growth, the high level of sprawl will continue for the rest of the year. (2) In the urban development mode oriented by economic construction, the development of secondary sector will significantly aggravate the urban spread. However, by promoting the development of the tertiary sector, local governments can attract foreign investment to optimize the structure of economic development and alleviate the problem of urban sprawl. (3) The influence of road construction, marketization level and college education level on the spread of cities is small or insignificant. Finally, we summarize the types, drivers and path dependence of urban sprawl and put forward policy proposals to control the urban sprawl from the perspectives of industrial structure and development.

Key words: urban sprawl, phase characteristics, driving factors, municipal districts, panel data analysis

单葆国, 邵玺, 余姗, 贺三维. 中国城市蔓延阶段特征及驱动因素分析[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2018, 20(3): 302-310.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.170602

SHAN Baoguo,SHAO Xi,YU Shan,HE Sanwei. Analysis on Phase Characteristics and Driving Factors of Urban Sprawl in China[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2018, 20(3): 302-310.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.170602

图/表 2

参考文献 29

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	模型①	模型②	模型③	模型④	模型⑤
	FE	FE	RE	FE	RE
SI(-1)				0.623***	0.760***
SI(-1)				(61.456)	(77.708)
lnsecond	0.667***	1.684***	1.342***	0.172***	0.239
lnsecond	(7.788)	(3.460)	(3.001)	(3.077)	(1.169)
lnthird	-0.606***	-2.219***	-2.088***	-0.179***	-0.270
lnthird	(-6.510)	(-4.414)	(-4.487)	(-2.871)	(-1.115)
lnexp	0.282***	0.591*	0.711**	0.228***	0.142
lnexp	(4.562)	(1.673)	(2.114)	(5.577)	(0.658)
lnedu	0.002	-0.014	-0.025	0.014*	-0.040
lnedu	(0.109)	(-0.166)	(-0.309)	(1.414)	(-0.841)
lnforeign	0.054***	0.213***	0.187***	0.019**	0.012
lnforeign	(4.223)	(3.007)	(2.722)	(2.340)	(0.257)
road	0.070***	0.149***	0.123***	0.009**	-0.065***
road	(9.720)	(4.265)	(3.671)	(2.232)	(-3.390)
market	0.088	0.985	1.819*	0.453***	2.534***
market	(0.479)	(0.924)	(1.776)	(3.962)	(3.614)
R²	0.776	0.566	0.026	0.903	0.574
回归方法	GLS	OLS	GLS	GLS	GLS
Huasman检验			23.9		931
样本量	4 066	4 066	4 066	4 066	4 066

中国城市蔓延阶段特征及驱动因素分析

Analysis on Phase Characteristics and Driving Factors of Urban Sprawl in China

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