地球信息科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (4): 532-542.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.180052

• 地球信息科学理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

FLUS-UGB多情景模拟的珠江三角洲城市增长边界划定

吴欣昕(), 刘小平*(), 梁迅, 陈广亮   

  1. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广州 510275
  • 收稿日期:2018-01-16 修回日期:2018-02-18 出版日期:2018-04-20 发布日期:2018-04-20
  • 通讯作者: 刘小平 E-mail:wuxx33@mail2.sysu.edu.cn;liuxp3@mail.sysu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:吴欣昕(1994-),女,硕士生,研究方向为大数据与城市模拟。E-mail: wuxx33@mail2.sysu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0604404);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41671398)

Multi-scenarios Simulation of Urban Growth Boundaries in Pearl River Delta Based on FLUS-UGB

WU Xinxin(), LIU Xiaoping(), LIANG Xun, CHEN Guangliang   

  1. School of Geography and Planning of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
  • Received:2018-01-16 Revised:2018-02-18 Online:2018-04-20 Published:2018-04-20
  • Supported by:
    National Key R&D Program of China, No.2017YFA0604404;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41671398.

摘要:

城市增长边界(UGBs)能够控制城市空间的无序蔓延并引导城市合理增长,多发展情景下的UGBs是对不同规划条件下城市未来发展空间范围进行界定的常用方法。元胞自动机(CA)模型能对未来城市发展进行动态的预测,并已广泛的应用于UGBs的划定中。然而,目前的方法和模型大多只针对单一的城市发展情景进行UGBs的划定,较少能对未来多种发展情景下的UGBs进行准确划定。因此,针对这个问题本文提出了一种基于未来用地模拟(FLUS)模型和膨胀与腐蚀的算法的多情景UGBs划定模型(FLUS-UGB)。本文选取珠江三角洲地区为研究区,在对2000-2013年珠江三角洲地区城市土地利用进行模拟和验证的基础上(Kappa系数为0.715,总体精度为94.539%),预测了2013-2050年基准、耕地保护及生态控制3种情景下珠江三角洲地区的城市扩张,并根据预测结果对该地区UGBs进行划定。结果显示,该方法能够针对不同的城市发展情景进行相应UGBs的划定,具有较好的可靠性及适用性。

关键词: 城市增长边界, 城市扩张, FLUS-UGB模型, 元胞自动机, 膨胀腐蚀

Abstract:

Arising from rapid growth of economy and population,urban sprawl has become a major challenge for sustainable urban development in the world. In order to assist urban planning, applicable methods and models are required to guide and constrain the growth of urban areas. Nowadays, urban growth boundaries (UGBs) has been regarded as a common tool used by planners to control the scale of urban development and protect rural areas which has a significant contribution to local ecological environment. However, existing models mainly focus on the delimitation of UGBs for urban development in single-scenarios. To date, there are rarely studies to develop efficient and scientific methods for delimiting the UGBs by taking the influences of macro policy and spatial policy into account. This paper presents a future land use simulation and urban growth boundary model (FLUS-UGB) which aims to delimit the UGBs for the urban areas in multi-scenarios. The top-down system dynamics (SD) model and bottom-up cellular automaton (CA) model are integrated in FLUS sub-model for simulating the urban growth pattern in the future. Furthermore, the UGB sub-model is developed to generate the UGBs that uses a morphological technology based on erosion and dilation according to the urban form produced by FLUS. This method merges and connects the cluster of urban blocks into one integral area and eliminates the small and isolated urban patches at the same time. We selected the Pearl River Delta region (PRD), one of the most developed areas in China, as the case study area and simulate the urban growth of PRD region from 2000 to 2013 for validate the proposed model. Then we used FLUS-UGB model to delimit the UGBs in PRD region of 2050 under three different planning scenarios (baseline, farmland protection and ecological control). The results showed that: (1) the model has high simulation accuracy for urban land with Kappa of 0.715, overall accuracy of 94.539% and Fom 0.269. (2) the method can maintain the edge details well in areas with high urban fragmentation and fractal dimension. This research demonstrates that the FLUS-UGB model is appropriate to delineate UGB under different planning policies, which is very useful for rapid urban growth regions.

Key words: urban growth boundary, urban expansion, FLUS-UGB model, cellular automata, erosion and dilation