重要经济发展区域间海运网络时空演变特性分析

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.180085

地球信息科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (5): 582-592.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.180085

• “海上丝绸之路空间数据分析”专辑 • 上一篇下一篇

重要经济发展区域间海运网络时空演变特性分析

余红楚¹(), 方志祥^1,^3,^*(), 陆锋², 彭澎², 赵志远¹, 冯明翔¹

1. 武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室,武汉 430079
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京 100101
3. 时空数据智能获取技术与应用教育部工程研究中心,武汉 430079

收稿日期:2018-01-27 修回日期:2018-04-27 出版日期:2018-05-29 发布日期:2018-05-20
通讯作者: 方志祥 E-mail:hongshuxifan8140@163.com;zxfang@whu.edu.cn
作者简介:
作者简介：余红楚（1990-）,女,博士生,主要从事海上交通大数据挖掘研究。E-mail: hongshuxifan8140@163.com
基金资助:
中国科学院重点项目(ZDRW-ZS-2016-6-3);国家自然科学基金项目（41771473）;国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1405302);测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室专项科研经费资助

Spatial-temporal Evolution Patterns of Maritime Networks between Important Economic Developing Zones Revealed

YU Hongchu¹(), FANG Zhixiang^1,^3,^*(), LU Feng², PENG Peng², ZHAO Zhiyuan¹, FENG Mingxiang¹

1. State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing （LIESMARS）, Wuhan 430079, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
3.Engineering Research Center for Spatiotemporal Data Smart Acquisition and Application, Ministry of Education of China, Wuhan 430079, China

Received:2018-01-27 Revised:2018-04-27 Online:2018-05-29 Published:2018-05-20
Contact: FANG Zhixiang E-mail:hongshuxifan8140@163.com;zxfang@whu.edu.cn
Supported by:
Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.ZDRW-ZS-2016-6-3;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 41771473;National Key Research and Development Program of China, No.2017YFC1405302;LIESMARS Special Research Funding.

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“海上丝绸之路”沿线国家（MSR）、金砖国家（BRICS）、美日韩（AJK）是重要经济发展区域。研究其海运网络的时空演变规律有助于国家层面的贸易竞争均衡分析,对海运战略科学部署和智慧应对具有十分重要的意义。AIS（Automatic Identification System）数据具有实时性,且已基本覆盖全球港口的近海区域,能为海运网络提供及时分析的数据支撑。本文利用AIS数据挖掘MSR、BRICS、AJK的运输网络时空演变规律,结果表明,MSR散货、集装箱、油轮的内部网络结构的变化明显大于AJK和BRICS,说明“一带一路”倡议促进了MSR的内部海运贸易;MSR、AJK和BRICS的外部网络结构变化2013-2016年都较大,说明“一带一路”倡议的实施期间,MSR、AJK和BRICS 3个区域之间的海运贸易变化较大;3个区域的集装箱、油轮吞吐量加权的内外部海运网络结构2015-2016年较2013-2014年更为稳定,随着“一带一路”倡议的实施,这3个区域内部和区域之间的吞吐量加权海运网络结构变化幅度逐步减小。“一带一路”倡议对不同的经济发展区域的影响不同,对MSR的内外部海运网络结构都产生了一定影响,对BRICS散货、集装箱、油轮型海运网络的影响呈现差异化特征,对AJK内部海运网络没有影响,对AJK的外部网络产生了部分影响。提高MSR的海运贸易吞吐量,提升MSR在海运网络中的贸易地位,仍是当前的发展重点。

关键词: AIS轨迹, 经济发展区域, 海运网络, 时空演变规律, “一带一路”倡议;

Abstract:

MSR (countries along the Maritime Silk Road), BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and AJK (the United States, Japan and South Korea) are important economic developing zones to promote international trade. Study on the spatio-temporal evolution pattern of maritime network is helpful to analyze the competition and balance of international trade between different countries, and to make scientific strategic deployment and intelligent decision in global maritime trade. Automatic Identification System （AIS） data makes the real-time analysis of maritime network possible for its advantages of real-time and the near-complete coverage for the offshore area of the ports. Based on the AIS data of three main types of business ships in international trade, namely bulk ship, container ship and tanker ship, this paper reveals spatio-temporal evolution patterns of maritime networks between important economic developing zones, using the timeline method to describe the change of the networks in and outside different zones. The result shows that the structural maritime network evolutions of bulk-layer, container-layer, and tanker-layer inside the MSR are much larger than the evolutions inside BRICS and AJK, which indicates that the Belt and Road Initiative has promoted the trade between MSR countries. The dynamics outside three typical important economic developing zones （MSR, BRICS, and AJK） are large from 2013 to 2016, which indicates that the networks between them have changed greatly with the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative. The structural maritime network dynamics weighted by cargo handling capacity in 2015 and 2016 are smaller than 2013 and 2014, which indicates that under the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, the changes of cargo handling capacity in and outside the three economic developing zones have decreased in 2015 and 2016. Obviously, the Belt and Road Initiative has different influences on MSR, BRICS, and AJK. The maritime networks inside and outside MSR are affected by this initiative. The bulk, container, tanker maritime networks inside BRICS have diverse dynamics derived from this initiative, which also affected the maritime networks outside BRICS to some extent. This initiative has no influences on the network inside AJK, but partly affects the network outside AJK. Improving the throughput and position of MSR in the maritime network is still very important to global trade balance.

Key words: AIS trajectories, economic developing zones, maritime network, spatial-temporal evolution pattern, the Belt and Road Initiative

余红楚, 方志祥, 陆锋, 彭澎, 赵志远, 冯明翔. 重要经济发展区域间海运网络时空演变特性分析[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2018, 20(5): 582-592.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.180085

YU Hongchu,FANG Zhixiang,LU Feng,PENG Peng,ZHAO Zhiyuan,FENG Mingxiang. Spatial-temporal Evolution Patterns of Maritime Networks between Important Economic Developing Zones Revealed[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2018, 20(5): 582-592.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.180085

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类型	年份	AJK			BRICS			MSR
类型	年份	均值	标准差		均值	标准差		均值	标准差
散货型内部网络结构变化	2013	0.000	0.000		0.500	0.500		0.812	0.148
	2014	0.000	0.000		0.375	0.479		0.632	0.112
	2015	0.000	0.000		0.000	0.000		0.636	0.327
	2016	0.000	0.000		0.250	0.500		0.651	0.220
散货型吞吐量加权内部网络结构变化	2013	0.570	0.358		0.080	0.005		0.667	0.108
	2014	0.616	0.402		0.121			0.037	0.628	0.301
	2015	0.361	0.184		0.118			0.105	0.241	0.115
	2016	0.257	0.200	0.283		0.478	0.241		0.116
散货型外部网络结构变化	2013	0.926	0.110	0.826	0.038	0.903	0.087
	2014	0.808	0.033	0.741		0.041	0.772		0.052
	2015	0.905	0.023	0.807		0.178	0.840		0.149
	2016	0.847	0.119	0.811		0.097	0.866		0.046
散货型吞吐量加权外部网络结构变化	2013	0.823	0.153	0.790	0.128	0.785	0.109
	2014	0.602	0.128	0.680		0.134	0.707		0.263
	2015	0.494	0.070	0.587		0.154	0.558		0.126
	2016	0.581	0.119	0.674		0.221	0.520		0.210

类型	年份	AJK			BRICS			MSR
类型	年份	均值	标准差		均值	标准差		均值	标准差
集装箱型内部网络结构变化	2013	0.000	0.000		0.486	0.352		0.788	0.192
	2014	0.000	0.000		0.390	0.091		0.590	0.149
	2015	0.000	0.000		0.372	0.434		0.549	0.152
	2016	0.000	0.000		0.466	0.096		0.452	0.136
集装箱型吞吐量加权内部网络结构变化	2013	0.268	0.130		0.772	0.198		0.475	0.160
	2014	0.368	0.447		0.567			0.132	0.542	0.308
	2015	0.171	0.120		0.170			0.090	0.265	0.112
	2016	0.168	0.022	0.272		0.036	0.229		0.085
集装箱型外部网络结构变化	2013	0.670	0.127	0.867	0.117	0.906	0.083
	2014	0.762	0.102	0.646		0.115	0.762		0.066
	2015	0.749	0.126	0.610		0.142	0.700		0.095
	2016	0.701	0.220	0.732		0.140	0.762		0.125
集装箱型吞吐量加权外部网络结构变化	2013	0.580	0.182	0.723	0.087	0.767	0.117
	2014	0.623	0.258	0.683		0.213	0.687		0.220
	2015	0.480	0.128	0.468		0.106	0.543		0.134
	2016	0.471	0.120	0.501		0.075	0.479		0.040

类型	年份	AJK			BRICS			MSR
类型	年份	均值	标准差		均值	标准差		均值	标准差
油轮型内部网络结构变化	2013	0.000	0.000		0.435	0.432		0.737	0.239
	2014	0.000	0.000		0.434	0.453		0.482	0.127
	2015	0.000	0.000		0.626	0.421		0.462	0.218
	2016	0.000	0.000		0.347	0.409		0.475	0.055
油轮型吞吐量加权内部网络结构变化	2013	0.502	0.354		0.550	0.299		0.638	0.297
	2014	0.548	0.439		0.538			0.368	0.534	0.318
	2015	0.228	0.142		0.207			0.146	0.296	0.091
	2016	0.169	0.069	0.235		0.259	0.238		0.092
油轮型外部网络结构变化	2013	0.840	0.188	0.839	0.139	0.891	0.113
	2014	0.825	0.084	0.779		0.049	0.695		0.024
	2015	0.804	0.056	0.808		0.164	0.695		0.116
	2016	0.686	0.104	0.766		0.085	0.733		0.061
油轮型吞吐量加权外部网络结构变化	2013	0.823	0.131	0.828	0.143	0.638	0.297
	2014	0.736	0.255	0.791		0.188	0.534		0.318
	2015	0.572	0.106	0.538		0.119	0.296		0.091
	2016	0.556	0.101	0.507		0.074	0.238		0.092

重要经济发展区域间海运网络时空演变特性分析

Spatial-temporal Evolution Patterns of Maritime Networks between Important Economic Developing Zones Revealed

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