地球信息科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (11): 1571-1578.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.180191

• 地球信息科学理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

多源信息结合的雪灾交通风险评估研究

隋琦1,2(), 王瑛1,2, 李婷3, 刘庆爱3, 俞海洋3,*()   

  1. 1. 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京 100875
    2. 北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院,北京 100875
    3. 河北省气象灾害防御中心, 石家庄 050021
  • 收稿日期:2018-04-16 修回日期:2018-08-10 出版日期:2018-11-20 发布日期:2018-11-28
  • 通讯作者: 俞海洋 E-mail:suiqi@mail.bnu.edu.cn;8yhy8@sohu.com
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:隋 琦(1993-),女,硕士,主要研究方向为灾害风险评估。E-mail: suiqi@mail.bnu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室开放基金项目(Z201603H);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602403)

Application of Multi-source Information Fusion in the Traffic Risk Assessment of Snow Disaster

SUI Qi1,2(), WANG Ying1,2, LI Ting3, LIU Qingai3, YU Haiyang3,*()   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China
    3. Defense Center of Meteorological disasters of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
  • Received:2018-04-16 Revised:2018-08-10 Online:2018-11-20 Published:2018-11-28
  • Contact: YU Haiyang E-mail:suiqi@mail.bnu.edu.cn;8yhy8@sohu.com
  • Supported by:
    Open Foundation Project from Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, No.Z201603H;National Key Research and Development Program of China, No.2016YFA0602403.

摘要:

本研究将气象观测信息与网络信息相结合,提出了一种多源信息结合的雪灾交通风险评估方法:利用长时间气象观测数据分析雪灾的致灾强度时空特征,计算不同年遇型雪灾致灾强度;对门户网站、高速公路网站中节假日道路拥堵的新闻报道进行信息挖掘,获取高速公路暴露度;采用风险矩阵进行雪灾交通风险评估。将该方法应用于河北省,研究结果如下: ① 近5年来全省降雪有所下降,但长时间尺度来看,各地降雪呈波动变化;积雪深度高值区分布在张家口、承德、石家庄地区,但各年代间会有所变化;降雪次数高值区基本固定,在张家口康保、沽源、崇礼以及承德丰宁西北方向。② 暴露度级别高的路段是连接北京与上海、广州、哈尔滨等城市的高速公路,以及重要省市级联络线。③ 受致灾强度与暴露度的综合影响,河北省雪灾高风险路段集中在京港澳高速(石安G4)、京昆高速G5、京承高速G45、长深高速G25、张承高速G95等。这些路段必须做好雪灾风险防范措施。

关键词: 雪灾, 交通, 风险评估, 时空分布, 河北

Abstract:

This study proposed a method of traffic risk assessment of snow disaster based on multi-source information fusion including meteorological observation information and network information. Using the meteorological monitoring data in long time scale, the temporal and spatial characteristics of snowfall in Hebei province was analyzed with regard to frequency of snowfall and maximum of snow depth. The snow hazard intensity in different cases of return period events was calculated by function distribution fitting. Besides, we classified the exposure of highway in Hebei province by collecting the information of road congestion during holidays including Spring Festival and National Day from portal news websites, highway websites and so on. Finally, the risk matrix method was adopted to analyze the traffic risk of snow in Hebei province. That method was applied to Hebei province, and the study results were as follows: ① In recent 5 years, the snowfall in Hebei province has decreased. However, the snowfalls in different area fluctuated from decade to decade over a long-term scale. The high value areas of snow depth were located in Zhangjiakou, Chengde, and Shijiazhuang City, but they changed in different decades; the high frequency areas of snowfall were basically fixed, which was located in Kangbao, Guyuan and Chongli County in Zhangjiakou City, and the northwest of Fengning County in Chengde City. ② The sections of highway with high exposure were important provincial and city-level linking-up roads and the expressways which mainly connected Beijing with Shanghai, Guangzhou, Harbin and other major cities. ③ Affected by the comprehensive effects of hazard intensity and exposure, the high-risk sections of snow disaster were mainly concentrated in Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Expressway (Shi'an Expressway G4), Jingkun Expressway G5, Beijing-Chengde Expressway G45, Changshen Expressway G25, and Zhangjiakou-Chengde Expressway G95, which need good risk prevention measures prepared against the snow disaster.

Key words: snow disaster, traffic, risk assessment, temporal and spatial distribution, Hebei