基于高斯两步移动搜寻法的村镇避难场所可达性研究

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.180192

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

避难场所可达性是指避难场所与受灾居民之间的通达性,即灾害发生时,避难人员通过避难疏散通道到达避难场所的难易程度,是评价避难场所布局合理性的重要指标。本研究结合高斯两步移动搜寻法和网络分析法,从供需双向出发对村镇地区避难场所进行可达性分析。2种方法的结合,既充分考虑了需求点与设施点的相互作用,又充分考虑了设施点的吸引力随距离的衰减关系,并基于实际道路,以步行疏散时间作为搜索半径,降低了传统研究中因忽略供需间相互作用及实际距离而引起的可达性结果的误差。最后,以神农架松柏镇区为例,验证该方法的实际应用价值。结果表明,该方法能够有效测定村镇地区避难场所的空间可达性,同时,基于GIS软件可以直观地揭示研究区域内避难场所可达性空间分布差异。该方法可为制定科学的村镇防灾减灾规划提供方法支持。

关键词: 高斯两步移动搜寻法, 村镇防灾, 避难场所, 可达性, GIS

Abstract:

China has a vast area and frequent disasters. Due to the special geographical environment and the imperfect disaster prevention and reduction system, the rural areas have made it more difficult for people to take refuge. Refugees can use effective evacuation guidance to reach the shelters in the shortest time, which will reduce unnecessary casualties and improve the efficiency of rescue evacuation. Therefore, the layout of emergency shelters should consider the timeliness. The emergency shelter accessibility refers to the accessibility between emergency shelters and refugees. That is to evaluate, when disasters occur, how difficult it is for refugees to reach emergency shelters through evacuation routes. The emergency shelter accessibility is an important measurement for its rationality in spatial layout. The Gaussian based two-step floating catchment area method(Ga2SFCA) fully considers the interaction between the demand points and the facilities, it also considers the fading relationship between attraction and distance of facilities. The network analysis is based on the actual road and the results obtained are real and objective. Combining the two methods can reduce the accessibility error caused by neglecting the interaction and actual distance between supply and demand in traditional research and effectively determine the spatial distribution of the emergency shelters. Taken Songbai town in Shennongjia as an example, this study combined the Ga2SFCA with the network analysis and took multiple evacuation times as catchment sizes to analyze the rural emergency shelter accessibility. Finally, from the perspective of the evacuation demand of refuges, we analyzed the accessibility of vulnerable people to shelters in the study area. The results show that: this method can be applied to the research on accessibility of emergency shelters in rural area, and by GIS, the differences in accessibility space distribution of emergency shelters in the study area can be revealed directly. At the same time, this method can also provide support for the formulation of scientific rural disaster prevention and mitigation planning. When planning an emergency shelter, not only the accessibility of the sites but also the scale of the facilities and the configuration of the emergency infrastructure must be fully considered. Meanwhile, the emergency marking system should play a guiding role to enhance the emergency shelter accessibility from the refugees' behavior and psychology.

Key words: Gaussian based 2-step floating catchment area method (Ga2SFCA), rural disaster prevention, emergency shelter, accessibility, GIS

但文羽, 肖映辉, 胡周灵, 詹庆明. 基于高斯两步移动搜寻法的村镇避难场所可达性研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2018, 20(10): 1412-1421.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.180192

DAN Wenyu,XIAO Yinghui,HU Zhouling,ZHAN Qingming. Rural Emergency Shelter Accessibility Using Gaussian Based 2-step Floating Catchment Area Method[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2018, 20(10): 1412-1421.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.180192

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避难场所名称	避难场所类型	避难场所面积/m²	综合评分	避难场所供给量/m²
社会福利中心空地	紧急避难场所	2247.04	1	449.41
道路运输管理局空地	紧急避难场所	2751.66	1	550.33
停车场	紧急避难场所	6131.26	3	3678.76
小区绿地	固定避难场所	6900.63	3	4140.38
神农架高中操场	固定避难场所	8257.63	4	6606.10
实验初级中学运动场	固定避难场所	19 248.20	4	15 398.56

数据类型	数据名称	数据格式	数据成果
基础地理信息数据	镇区建筑信息	CAD	应急保障基础设施分布
	镇区建筑信息	Shapefile	承灾体脆弱性评价
	滑坡易发性	TIFF	地质灾害强度评价
	泥石流易发性	TIFF
	崩塌易发性	TIFF
	地震易发性	TIFF
	0.2 m分辨率数字正射影像图	TIFF	人口分布
规划基础信息数据	居民点建设现状	CAD	人口分布
	交通建设现状	CAD	避难疏散通道
	避难场所规划	Shapefile	避难场所分布及供给量
建设规划数据	镇区规划（2013-2030）的文本和说明书	Word	分区

	不可达人口数/人	低可达人口数/人	一般可达人口数/人	较高可达人口数/人	高可达人口数/人	可达人数占比/%
0-5 min	14 020	2790	730	2470	1200	33.90
5-10 min	6860	10 200	700	2140	1310	67.66
10-15 min	2000	13 480	3830	440	1460	90.57
15-20 min	500	15 800	2500	890	1520	97.64

	不可达	低可达	一般可达	较高可达	高可达	可达人口
避难人口/人	790	6870	2950	460	1450	11 730
避难人口占比/%	6.31	54.87	23.56	3.67	11.58	93.69