• 地球信息科学理论与方法 •

### 基于确定性系数和支持向量机的地质灾害易发性评价

1. 中国地质大学（武汉）资源学院,武汉 430074
• 收稿日期:2018-07-27 出版日期:2018-12-25 发布日期:2018-12-20
• 通讯作者: 梅红波 E-mail:1425694503@qq.com;hbmei@cug.edu.cn
• 作者简介:

作者简介：李远远（1992-）,男,河南驻马店,硕士生,主要从事机器学习和地质灾害评价方面的研究。E-mail: 1425694503@qq.com

• 基金资助:
云南省级地质灾害防治项目（2016025007）

### Geological Disaster Susceptibility Evaluation Based on Certainty Factor and Support Vector Machine

LI Yuanyuan(), MEI Hongbo*(), REN Xiaojie, HU Xudong, LI Mengdi

1. Faculty of Earth Resources, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
• Received:2018-07-27 Online:2018-12-25 Published:2018-12-20
• Contact: MEI Hongbo E-mail:1425694503@qq.com;hbmei@cug.edu.cn
• Supported by:
Geological Hazards Investigation Project of Yunnan Province, No.2016025007.

Abstract:

The Certainty Factor (CF) is a classical method of sensitivity analysis for geological hazards, which can be used to quantify complex multi-factors in the same range, and CF value directly represents the contribution of each factor to geological hazards. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a representative method for machine learning, which can be used to evaluate the susceptibility of geological hazards on the basis of various impact factors. The main purpose of this paper is to combine CF method with SVM method called CF-SVM model for developing geological hazards susceptibility model which is applied to Lushui County of Yunnan Province. To assess geological hazards susceptibility, the paper selects ten impact factors, including the elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, profile curvature, distance to faults, distance to rivers, distance to roads, rock soil mass types, geomorphologic type, the land use, which were calculated as the most important impact factors. The state of each impact factor was graded based on the geological hazards area ratio curve and the grading area ratio curve. The CF method is applied to calculated the sensitivity values of each factor on the basis of 381 geological hazards, and the under-sampling method was used to select 381 non-geological hazards in Lushui county. The 381 geological hazards and 381 non-geological hazards hazards are the classification data of SVM method and geological hazards susceptibility maps were produced. Research shows that the extremely high and the high susceptibility areas are mainly distributed on the both sides of the Nujiang River. The comparision of geological hazards susceptibility map and actual geological hazards distribution showed that extremely high and the high susceptibility areas can account for about 89.76% of the actual geological hazards for CF-SVM model which is better than the single SVM model. The model performance was evaluated by the receiver operation characteristic (ROC) and precision recall (P-R) in the two models. Through ROC and P-R of the results, the prediction power of the CF-SVM model is superior to the single SVM model, and prediction accuracy of the CF-SVM model reached 92% and 88% respectively. This indicates that the combination of the CF and SVM has a higher predictive value. The research provides guidance and technical reference for the nationwide county geological hazards evaluation, and the proposed model can be used assess and manage the risk of geological hazard.