• 地理空间分析综合应用 •

### 京津唐地区HFMD时空变异分析与影响因子探测

1. 1. 长安大学地球科学与资源学院,西安 710054
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京 100101
3. 河南大学环境与规划学院,开封 475004
4. 贵州科学院,贵阳550001
5. 国家食品安全风险评估中心,北京100022
• 收稿日期:2018-10-14 修回日期:2018-12-20 出版日期:2019-03-15 发布日期:2019-03-15
• 通讯作者: 王丽 E-mail:zxx@lreis.ac.cn;wangli@lreis.ac.cn
• 作者简介:

作者简介：张湘雪（1993-）,女,河南周口人,硕士生,主要从事空间分析与统计研究。E-mail: zxx@lreis.ac.cn

• 基金资助:
资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室自主创新项目(O88RA205YA、O88RA200YA);公益性科研专项(GYHY20140616)

### Spatiotemporal Variation Analysis and Risk Determinants of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China

Xiangxue ZHANG1,2(), Li WANG3,*(), Lichang YIN1, Chengdong XU2, Xia LI1, Yang LIU4,5

1. 1. The School of Earth Science and Resources, Chang'an University, Xi’an 710054, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
3. The College of Environment and Planning of Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
4. Guizhou Academy of Sciences,Guiyang 550001, China
5. China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment, Beijing 100022, China
• Received:2018-10-14 Revised:2018-12-20 Online:2019-03-15 Published:2019-03-15
• Contact: Li WANG E-mail:zxx@lreis.ac.cn;wangli@lreis.ac.cn
• Supported by:
Innovation Project of LREIS (O88RA205YA、O88RA200YA);Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Profession of China, No.GYHY20140616.

Abstract:

：Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious childhood disease. In recent years, the number of cases of HFMD in China has increased rapidly, and has received increasing attention. Although there are many related studies, only a few studies focus on the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of HFMD incidence and quantify the association between meteorological factors, socioeconomic variables, and HFMD incidence. Geodetector and Bayesian space-time hierarchical models were applied to analyze the spatiotemporal heterogen-eity of the HFMD incidence from 2009 to 2013 within the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region. These were used to quantify the determinant power of meteorological factors, socioeconomic variables, and the interactions between two of these factors. The Geodetector method has the axiom that if an explanatory variable (x) determined an explained variable (y), the explained variable would exhibit a spatial distribution similar to that of the explanatory variable. This method has been widely used to measure the determinant power of potential explanatory variables. The Bayesian space-time hierarchical model has the potential to show the spatiotemporal variation of a geographic phenomenon. The results showed that: (1) the highest incidence of HFMD occurred in late spring and summer (May to July), and the lowest incidence occurred in winter (December to February). (2) Spatial heterogeneity existed. In particular high risks areas were mainly concentrated in areas of high economic development. The population density and proportion of the tertiary industry determinants, play a lead role in contributing to the spatial heterogeneity of HFMD incidence (q values of 0.35 and 0.28, respectively, as calculated by GeoDetector). (3) The main meteorological factors affecting the temporal heterogeneity of HFMD incidence were average temperature, cumulative precipitation, and relative humidity (with a determinant powers calculated by GeoDetector of 0.38, 0.27 and 0.13, respectively). Additionally, the interactions were greater than the independent effects between socioeconomic variables or meteorological factors. For example, the interaction of average temperature and relative humidity, average temperature and precipitation, average temperature and wind speed were 0.43, 0.40 and 0.42, respectively. The interaction of population density and proportion of the tertiary industry was 0.55. This result presented the strongest correlation with HFMD incidence. Temperature and relative humidity were also dominant factors influencing the spatiotemporal transmission of HFMD, along with areas of high economic development with high population density. This study provides a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of HFMD by detecting the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the HFMD incidence and quantifying the impact factors within the study region.