地球信息科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 398-406.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2019.180517
张湘雪1,2(), 王丽3,*(
), 尹礼唱1, 徐成东2, 李霞1, 刘杨4,5
收稿日期:
2018-10-14
修回日期:
2018-12-20
出版日期:
2019-03-15
发布日期:
2019-03-15
通讯作者:
王丽
E-mail:zxx@lreis.ac.cn;wangli@lreis.ac.cn
作者简介:
作者简介:张湘雪(1993-),女,河南周口人,硕士生,主要从事空间分析与统计研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Xiangxue ZHANG1,2(), Li WANG3,*(
), Lichang YIN1, Chengdong XU2, Xia LI1, Yang LIU4,5
Received:
2018-10-14
Revised:
2018-12-20
Online:
2019-03-15
Published:
2019-03-15
Contact:
Li WANG
E-mail:zxx@lreis.ac.cn;wangli@lreis.ac.cn
Supported by:
摘要:
手足口病(HFMD)是一种多发于儿童的常见传染病。近年来,中国HFMD发病人数逐年上升,疾病疫情也日益受到社会广泛关注。虽已有不少相关研究,但对于探测其时空异质性及量化潜在影响因子解释力的研究仍然较少。本文采用地理探测器及贝叶斯时空层次模型,对2009-2013年京津唐地区HFMD发病率的时空异质性进行分析,并量化各影响因子及其两两交互作用对HFMD发病率的解释力。结果表明:① HFMD的相对风险存在时间异质性,其发病风险在春夏季(5-7月)达到峰值,而冬季(12-次年2月)发病风险最低;② HFMD的相对风险存在空间异质性,在经济发达的地区HFMD发病率较高;③ 影响HFMD发病率时间异质性的主要气象因子为平均温度、累积降水、相对湿度,解释力分别为0.38,0.27,0.13,且交互作用都大于独自影响的作用,如平均温度和相对湿度、平均温度和降水,平均温度和风速两两交互的解释力分别为0.43, 0.40, 0.42。通过研究京津唐地区HFMD发病率的时空异质性以及影响因子的量化状况,为本地区HFMD的预防和控制提供理论依据。
张湘雪, 王丽, 尹礼唱, 徐成东, 李霞, 刘杨. 京津唐地区HFMD时空变异分析与影响因子探测[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2019, 21(3): 398-406.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2019.180517
Xiangxue ZHANG, Li WANG, Lichang YIN, Chengdong XU, Xia LI, Yang LIU. Spatiotemporal Variation Analysis and Risk Determinants of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2019, 21(3): 398-406.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2019.180517
表1
数据描述"
最小值 | 25%值 | 均值 | 标准差 | 中位数 | 75%值 | 最大值 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
发病率/(10-4) | 0.00 | 2.23 | 24.26 | 35.89 | 11.48 | 31.88 | 338.49 |
平均温度/°C | -9.20 | 0.70 | 11.93 | 11.37 | 13.50 | 22.60 | 28.50 |
相对湿度/% | 26.00 | 49.00 | 57.56 | 11.71 | 57.00 | 67.00 | 82.00 |
累积降水/mm | 0.00 | 5.80 | 49.13 | 55.54 | 22.00 | 72.03 | 439.90 |
平均风速/(m/s) | 1.11 | 1.97 | 2.37 | 0.53 | 2.30 | 2.69 | 4.26 |
人口密度/(人/km2) | 103.00 | 490.00 | 6058.00 | 10 366.00 | 934.00 | 5487.00 | 35 627.00 |
人均GDP/(104元) | 1.72 | 4.10 | 7.13 | 4.55 | 5.88 | 8.90 | 28.78 |
第二产业比重/% | 4.00 | 25.00 | 42.29 | 20.60 | 47.00 | 59.00 | 71.00 |
第三产业比重/% | 23.00 | 33.00 | 51.47 | 22.33 | 42.00 | 75.00 | 95.00 |
[1] |
Xing W J, Liao Q H, Viboud C.Hand, foot, and mouth disease in China, 2008-12: An epidemiological study[J]. Lancet Infectious Diseases, 2014,14(4):308-318.
doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(13)70342-6 pmid: 24485991 |
[2] | 赵成松,赵顺英.HFMD的流行概况和应对策略[J].中国实用儿科杂志,2009,24(6):419-421. |
[ Zhao C S, Zhao S Y.Epidemic situation and coping strategies of hand, foot and mouth disease[J]. Chinese Journal of Practical Pediatrics, 2009,24(6):419-421. ] | |
[3] |
吴北平,杨典,王劲峰,等.利用贝叶斯时空模型分析山东省手足口病时空变化及影响因素[J].地球信息科学学报,2016,18(12):1645-1652.
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.01645 |
[ Wu B P, Yang D, Wang J F, et al.Space-time variability and determinants of hand, foot and mouth in Shandong province: A Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling approach[J]. Journal of Geo-Information Science, 2016,18(12):1645-1652. ]
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.01645 |
|
[4] |
Ang L W, Koh B K W, Chan K P. Epidemiology and control of hand, foot and mouth disease in Singapore, 2001-2007[J]. Annals Academy of Medicine Singapore, 2009,38(2):106-112.
pmid: 19271036 |
[5] |
Van Tu Phan, Thao, Nguyen Thi Thanh, et al. Epidemiologic and virologic investigation of hand, foot, and mouth disease, southern Vietnam, 2005[J]. Emerging infectious diseases, 2007,13(11):1733-1741.
doi: 10.3201/eid1311.070632 pmid: 18217559 |
[6] |
Puenpa J, Theamboonlers A, Korkong S.Molecular characterization and complete genome analysis of human enterovirus 71 and coxsackievirus A16 from children with hand, foot and mouth disease in Thailand during 2008-2011[J]. Archives of Virology, 2011,156(11):2007-2013.
doi: 10.1007/s00705-011-1098-5 pmid: 21898187 |
[7] |
Onozuka D, Hashizume M.The influence of temperature and humidity on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Japan[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2011,410(1):19-25.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.09.055 pmid: 22014509 |
[8] |
Burry J N, Moore B, Mattner C.Hand, foot and mouth disease in South Australia[J]. The Medical journal of Australia, 1968,2(18):812.
doi: 10.1111/j.1751-0813.1956.tb05624.x pmid: 5723594 |
[9] | 别芹芹,邱冬生,胡辉.我国HFMD时空分布特征的GIS分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2010,12(3):380-384. |
[ Bie Q Q, Qiu D S, Hu H.Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in China[J]. Joural of Geo-Information Science, 2010,12(3):380-384. ] | |
[10] |
Chang L Y, King C C, Hsu K H.Risk factors of enterovirus 71 infection and associated hand, foot, and mouth disease/herpangina in children during an epidemic in Taiwan[J]. Pediatrics, 2002,109(6):e88.
doi: 10.1542/peds.109.6.e88 pmid: 12042582 |
[11] |
Li T, Yang Z, Di B.Hand-foot-and-mouth disease and weather factors in Guangzhou, southern China[J]. Epidemiology and Infection, 2014,142(8):1741-1750.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268813002938 pmid: 24267476 |
[12] |
Yan L, Li X L, Yu Y Q.Distribution and risk factors of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Changchun, northeastern China[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2014,59(5-6):533-538.
doi: 10.1007/s11434-013-0069-5 |
[13] |
Hu M G, Li Z J, Wang J F.Determinants of the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in china using geographically weighted regression models[J]. Plos One, 2012,7(6):e38978.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0038978 pmid: 3377651 |
[14] | Cao C, Li G, Zheng S, et al.editors. Research on the environmental impact factors of Hand-Foot-Mouth disease in Shenzhen, China using RS and GIS technologies[C]. Shenzhen: 2012 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, 2012. |
[15] |
Xu C D.Spatio-temporal pattern and risk factor analysis of hand, foot and mouth disease associated with under-five morbidity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2017,14(4):416.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph14040416 pmid: 5409617 |
[16] |
Huang Y, Deng T, Yu S C.Effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in children: A time-series analysis in Guangzhou, China[J]. Bmc Infectious Diseases, 2013,13:134.
doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-13-134 pmid: 3626782 |
[17] |
Zhu Q, Hao Y T, Ma J Q.Surveillance of hand, foot, and mouth disease in mainland China (2008-2009)[J]. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences, 2011,24(4):349-356.
doi: 10.3967/0895-3988.2011.04.005 pmid: 22108323 |
[18] |
Li G, Haining R, Richardson S.Space-time variability in burglary risk: A Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling approach[J]. Spatial Statistics, 2014,9(1):80-91.
doi: 10.1016/j.spasta.2014.03.006 |
[19] |
Besag J, York J, Mollie A.Bayesian image-restoration, with 2 applications in spatial statistics[J]. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 1991,43(1):1-20.
doi: 10.1007/BF00116466 |
[20] |
李俊明. 基于Bayesian层次时空模型的我国老龄化分析与预测[J].统计研究,2016,33(8):89-94.
doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2016.08.011 |
[ Li J M.Space-time variation of chinese aging based on bayesian hierarchy spatio-temporal model[J]. Statistical Research, 2016,33(8):89-94. ]
doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302/c.2016.08.011 |
|
[21] |
Gelman A.Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models (Comment on an Article by Browne and Draper)[J]. Bayesian Analysis, 2006,1(3):515-533.
doi: 10.1214/06-BA117A |
[22] |
Richardson S, Thomson A, Best N.Interpreting posterior relative risk estimates in disease-mapping studies[J]. Environmental Health Perspectives, 2004,112(9):1016-1025.
doi: 10.1289/ehp.6740 pmid: 15198922 |
[23] |
Lunn D J, Thomas A, Best N.WinBUGS-A Bayesian modelling framework: Concepts, structure, and extensibility[J]. Statistics and Computing, 2000,10(4):325-337.
doi: 10.1023/A:1008929526011 |
[24] |
Wang J F, Li X H, Christakos G.Geographical detectors-based health risk assessment and its application in the neural tube defects study of the Heshun region, China[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 2010,24(1):107-127.
doi: 10.1080/13658810802443457 |
[25] |
Wang J F, Zhang T L, Fu B J.A measure of spatial stratified heterogeneity[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2016,67(2):50-56.
doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.02.052 |
[26] |
王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201701010 |
[ Wang J F, Xu C D.Geodetector: principle and prospective[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017,72(1):116-134. ]
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201701010 |
|
[27] |
Wang J F, Hu Y.Environmental health risk detection with GeogDetector[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2012,33(1):14-15.
doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.01.015 |
[28] |
李媛媛,徐成东,肖革新.京津唐地区细菌性痢疾社会经济影响时空分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2016,18(12):1615-1623.
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.01615 |
[ Li Y Y, Xu C D, Xiao G X.Spatial-temporal analysis of social-economic factors of bacillary dysentery in Beijing-Tianjin-Tang[J]. Journal of Geo-Information Science, 2016,18(12):1615-1623. ]
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.01615 |
|
[29] |
Basu R, Ostro B D.A multicounty analysis identifying the populations vulnerable to mortality associated with high ambient temperature in California[J]. American Journal of Epidemiology, 2008,168(6):632-637.
doi: 10.1023/B:HITE.0000046529.29523.5b pmid: 18663214 |
[30] |
Zhuang D F, Hu W S, Ren H Y.The influences of temperature on spatiotemporal trends of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in mainland China[J]. International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 2014,24(1):1-10.
doi: 10.1080/09603123.2013.769206 pmid: 23427794 |
[31] |
Bell M L, O'Neill M S, Ranjit N. Vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Latin America: A case-crossover study in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Santiago, Chile and Mexico City, Mexico[J]. International Journal of Epidemiology, 2008,37(4):796-804.
doi: 10.1093/ije/dyn094 pmid: 18511489 |
[32] |
Wang H, Du Z H, Wang X J.Detecting the association between meteorological factors and hand, foot, and mouth disease using spatial panel data models[J]. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2015,34:66-70.
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2015.03.007 pmid: 25770912 |
[33] |
Kim B I, Ki H, Park S.Effect of climatic factors on hand, foot, and mouth disease in south Korea, 2010-2013[J]. Plos One, 2016,11(6):e0157500.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0157500 pmid: 27285850 |
[34] |
Hii Y L, Rocklov J, Ng N.Short term effects of weather on hand, foot and mouth disease[J]. Plos One, 2011,6(2):S18-S18.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0016796 pmid: 3037951 |
[35] |
Ma E, Lam T, Wong C.Is hand, foot and mouth disease associated with meteorological parameters?[J]. Epidemiology & Infection, 2010,138(12):1779-1788.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268810002256 pmid: 20875200 |
[36] |
Wang P, Goggins W B, Chan E Y Y. Hand, foot and mouth disease in Hong Kong: A time-series analysis on its relationship with weather[J]. Plos One, 2016,11(8):e0161006.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0161006 pmid: 27532865 |
[37] |
Belanger M, Gray-Donald K, O'Loughlin J. Influence of weather conditions and season on physical activity in Adolescents[J]. Annals of Epidemiology, 2009,19(3):180-186.
doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2008.12.008 pmid: 19217000 |
[38] |
Huang J X, Wang J F, Bo Y C.Identification of health risks of hand, foot and mouth disease in China using the geographical detector technique[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2014,11(3):3407-3423.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph110303407 pmid: 24662999 |
[39] |
丘文洋,李连发,张杰昊,等.利用空间聚集的贝叶斯网络评估手足口病发病风险[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(8):1036-1048.
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01036 |
[ Qiu W Y, Li L F, Zhang J H, et al.A Bayesian network method considering spatial cluster to evaluate health risk of hand, foot and mouth disease[J]. Journal of Geo-Information Science, 2017,19(8):1036-1048. ]
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01036 |
|
[40] |
Jelinski D E, Wu J.The modifiable areal unit problem and implications for landscape ecology[J]. Landscape Ecology, 1996,11(3):129-140.
doi: 10.1007/BF02447512 |
[1] | 高楹, 宋辞, 郭思慧, 裴韬. 接驳地铁站的共享单车源汇时空特征及其影响因素[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2021, 23(1): 155-170. |
[2] | 朱伶俐, 任红艳, 丁凤, 鲁亮, 吴思佳, 崔成. 陕西省HFRS疫情时空分异特征及影响要素研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2020, 22(5): 1142-1152. |
[3] | 赵丹丹, 金声甜, 鲍丙飞, 张利国. 基于地理探测器的中国中部城市土地绿色利用效率时空演变及影响因素研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2020, 22(12): 2358-2370. |
[4] | 宋海慧, 余卓渊, 丁晓彤, 谢云鹏, 吕可晶. 森林脑炎时空分布特征和环境影响因素分析[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2020, 22(12): 2371-2382. |
[5] | 刘卫华, 王思远, 马元旭, 申明, 游永发, 海凯, 吴林霖. 一种湿地河流叶绿素a遥感反演方法[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2020, 22(10): 2062-2077. |
[6] | 阎世杰, 王欢, 焦珂伟. 京津冀地区植被时空动态及定量归因[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2019, 21(5): 767-780. |
[7] | 韩燕, 张苑. 甘肃省县域经济差异时空分异及影响因子研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2019, 21(11): 1735-1744. |
[8] | 牛丽楠, 邵全琴, 刘国波, 唐玉芝. 六盘水市土壤侵蚀时空特征及影响因素分析[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2019, 21(11): 1755-1767. |
[9] | 尹上岗, 李在军, 宋伟轩, 马志飞. 基于地理探测器的南京市住宅租金空间分异格局及驱动因素研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2018, 20(8): 1139-1149. |
[10] | 王钰, 胡宝清. 西江流域生态脆弱性时空分异及其驱动机制研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2018, 20(7): 947-956. |
[11] | 张星星, 吕宁, 姚凌, 姜侯. ECMWF地表太阳辐射数据在我国的误差及成因分析[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2018, 20(2): 254-267. |
[12] | 熊俊楠, 赵云亮, 程维明, 郭良, 王楠, 李伟. 四川省山洪灾害时空分布规律及其影响因素研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2018, 20(10): 1443-1456. |
[13] | 彭超, 廖一兰, 张宁旭. 中国城市群臭氧污染时空分布研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2018, 20(1): 57-67. |
[14] | 杨丰硕, 杨晓梅, 王志华, 齐文娟, 李治, 孟樊. 江西省典型县域经济差异影响因子地理探测研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2018, 20(1): 79-88. |
[15] | 丘文洋, 李连发, 张杰昊, 王劲峰. 利用空间聚集的贝叶斯网络评估手足口病发病风险[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2017, 19(8): 1036-1048. |
|