通勤距离对职住分离的统计验证

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2019.180606

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

职住分离和通勤距离关系的定量测度,对公共政策、城市规划的制定具有指导作用。长期以来,该领域的计算方法及验证的可靠性、精确性存在多方面的制约,用得最普及的单元平衡法存在单元尺度多大合适、单元边界隔离2个局限性。本研究以上海市为例,以人口普查、经济普查、手机信令数据为基础,多角度开展方法探索。先对中心城区划定职住基本平衡范围,用考虑通勤距离的密度估计函数,按工作地估计职工的居住密度,和从业居民的实际密度相比较,使职住分离和通勤距离对应起来,同时缓解单元尺度问题、消解边界隔离问题。继而使用职住分离零壹指数代替传统职住比,用平均通勤距离验证职住分离,获得了很强的线性相关。尽管统计结果有效,依然会有样本偏离线性回归方程,利用置信区间,筛选出异常点,凭经验解释原因,可从定性角度进一步提高分析结果的可信,还可以探测职住失配的原因。基于上述分析方法,验证了：职大于住的地区,职工通勤距离偏长,居民通勤距离偏短;住大于职的地区,居民通勤距离偏长,职工通勤距离偏短,职住关系越平衡,通勤交通总量越小,越分离,交通总量越大。上述方法以上海为例得到验证,也能适用于其他大城市的中心城区。

关键词: 职住分离, 职住平衡, 通勤距离, 零壹指数, 测度方法, 上海

Abstract:

Measurement of the relationship between home-work separation and commuting distance is a guide to public policy and urban planning. However, the reliability and accuracy of calculation and validation have various limitations in this filed. The widely used home-work ratio based on space units has the scaling and boundary limitations. This study reexamined the relationship using accurate population and economic census data and mobile phone signaling data of Shanghai. A home-work balance region was defined firstly in the central city. The expected housing density of workers was estimated from working locations by using density estimation function and then compared with the actual data. The relationship was established from home-work separation to commuting distance. The scaling and boundary limitations can be reduced by this method. Using the home-work separation zero-one index to verify the separation degree based on average commuting distance which presents a strong linear correlation. Although the result is significant, there are still outliers to the regression equation. The reason of the home-work mismatch of the outliers was explained based on experience, which improved criterion dependability qualitatively. Using the above-mentioned methods, we conclude that workers commute longer and residents commute shorter in job-rich areas, contrasting to the opposite results in housing-rich areas. The areas have less total commuting distance with more balanced home-work index, while have more total commuting distance with more separate index. The methods were proved effective in the case of Shanghai and can be applied to the central regions of other metropolises.

Key words: home-work separation, home-work balance, commuting distance, zero-one index, measuring method, Shanghai

宋小冬, 王园园, 杨钰颖, 张开翼, 钮心毅. 通勤距离对职住分离的统计验证[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2019, 21(11): 1699-1709.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2019.180606

SONG Xiaodong, WANG Yuanyuan, YANG Yuying, ZHANG Kaiyi, NIU Xinyi. Statistical Verification of Home-Work Separation based on Commuting Distance[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2019, 21(11): 1699-1709.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2019.180606

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	职工通勤距离偏长		职工通勤距离偏短
	明显异常	一般异常	明显异常	一般异常
职大于住	唐镇街道（7.4, 11.6）高东镇（7.5, 10.5）打浦桥（7.2, 9.6）张江高科（9.1, 11.7）	外高桥保税区张江镇	-	上钢新村程家桥新虹街道
住大于职	曹路镇（6.7, 9.4）	-	-	-

	居民通勤距离偏长		居民通勤距离偏短
	明显异常	一般异常	明显异常	一般异常
职大于住	上钢新村（6.8, 9.4）	新虹街道	北站街道（7.5, 5.5）	豫园街道
住大于职	殷行街道（8.5, 10.6）	-	宝山工业园（8.2, 5.8）	老西门南翔镇江桥镇