中国艾滋病空间格局和时空演化分析

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190199

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

探索艾滋病疫情的空间格局和时空演化特征,发现其分布和流行规律,对促进艾滋病防控工作具有重要意义。本文基于1997—2016年中国艾滋病省级发病率资料,利用空间自相关技术探测艾滋病疫情的空间格局,并使用重心轨迹迁移算法进行时空演化分析。结果表明：中国艾滋病疫情在省级尺度上具有较强的空间依赖性。1997—2016年,中国艾滋病疫情的全局空间关联程度从弱变强,而且存在进一步强化的趋势;疫情总体呈现“南重北轻,中部过渡”的空间格局,可将中国艾滋病发病率在局部发生空间自相关的区域划分为以内蒙为代表的北方疫情冷点片区和以广西为代表的南方疫情热点片区;中国艾滋病疫情的总体流行程度不断加深,且具有明显的地域差异性,在空间上表现为非均衡增长。因此,今后的艾滋防控工作必须在传统预防手段的基础上注重疫情扩散的时空规律,重点加强对疫情热点区域和高风险传播方向的管控,以达到区域协同、精准防控的目的。

关键词: 中国, 艾滋病, 空间自相关, 重心模型, 空间格局, 时空演化

Abstract:

AIDS is an infectious fatal disease caused by HIV, which is class B in infectious disease in China. Since the first case of AIDS reported in 1985, AIDS has been rampant in China. Exploring the spatial pattern of AIDS and its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics will help improve AIDS prevention and control. In this study, we adopted GIS spatial statistical methods to analyze the provincial incidence data of AIDS in China from 1997 to 2016. First, we used spatial autocorrelation technology to detect the spatial pattern of the AIDS epidemic. Then, we explored the spatiotemporal evolution process by using the centroid transferring curve model. Results show that: (1) The epidemic of AIDS in China has strong spatial dependence at the provincial scale. From 1997 to 2016, the global spatial correlation of AIDS increased, and is likely to further increase. The development and diffusion process of the AIDS accorded with the first law of geography. (2) The AIDS epidemic in China showed a general pattern of "high in the south, low in the north, and random in the middle." The regions where local spatial autocorrelation occurred could be divided into two areas: the northern low-low clusters represented by Inner Mongolia and the southern high-high clusters represented by Guangxi. The cold spots area of AIDS in the north experienced fluctuations and increased slightly, and extended to the northeast and central China. The hot spots area in the south had a growing trend. (3) The overall prevalence of the AIDS epidemic has been expanding from 1997 to 2016 gradually, with obvious regional differences. In the process of diffusion, thespatial pattern of AIDS became increasingly unbalanced. Our findings suggest that, to achieve regional synergy and precise control of AIDS in the future, in addition to the traditional prevention methods, we should focus more on the spatiotemporal patterns of AIDS diffusion. Also, it is necessary to strengthen the control of hot spots in the epidemic and the direction of high-risk transmission. The present study demonstrates the importance and reliability of the spatial statistical analysis methods in improving medical and health services, and could be used as a scientific reference for the work of AIDS prevention and control in China. In future studies, we should scale down the research unit when more detailed data is available.

Key words: China, AIDS, spatial autocorrelation, center of gravity model, spatial pattern, spatiotemporal evolution

张永树, 杨振凯, 訾璐, 曹一冰, 余航. 中国艾滋病空间格局和时空演化分析[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2020, 22(2): 198-206.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190199

ZHANG Yongshu, YANG Zhenkai, ZI Lu, CAO Yibing, YU Hang. Spatio-temporal Evolution of the AIDS Pattern in China[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2020, 22(2): 198-206.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190199

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年份	Moran's I	p 值	年份	Moran's I	p 值
1997	0.0660	0.3579	2007	0.1636	0.0383
1998	-0.0424	0.4171	2008	0.2353	0.0051
1999	0.0183	0.4781	2009	0.2181	0.0051
2000	-0.0487	0.3902	2010	0.2009	0.0081
2001	-0.0430	0.4331	2011	0.2091	0.0057
2002	-0.0343	0.4202	2012	0.2402	0.0086
2003	0.0369	0.3420	2013	0.2402	0.0086
2004	-0.0213	0.4451	2014	0.3187	0.0013
2005	0.0339	0.3821	2015	0.3526	0.0006
2006	0.0800	0.2082	2016	0.4061	0.0001

年份	低—低	低—高	高—低	高—高
1997	内蒙古—陕西—河南	广西
2001	新疆—青海			广西
2006	内蒙古—吉林—辽宁—宁夏	贵州	新疆	广西—广东
2011	内蒙古—吉林—辽宁—宁夏	湖南—贵州	新疆—河南	云南—广西
2016	内蒙古—辽宁—河北—山西—宁夏—河南	西藏		湖南—云南—贵州—广西

年份	属性阶段观测值	属性变化强度	重心转移距离/km	重心转移方向
1997	0.0025
1998	0.0120	3.80	57.44	东北50.67
1999	0.0151	0.26	65.61	东北85.33
2000	0.0222	0.47	52.71	东北56.53
2001	0.0350	0.58	122.01	东北59.42
2002	0.0588	0.68	43.94	东南60.19
2003	0.0849	0.44	126.12	东北50.35
2004	0.2349	1.77	49.07	东北63.28
2005	0.4324	0.84	114.86	西南7.76
2006	0.5102	0.18	240.65	西南50.59
2007	0.7400	0.45	51.99	西南32.22
2008	0.7613	0.03	46.87	东南81.17
2009	1.0001	0.31	40.82	西北22.07
2010	1.1974	0.20	60.16	东北62.28
2011	1.5251	0.27	18.58	西北79.92
2012	3.1120	1.04	177.27	西北32.77
2013	3.2230	0.04	100.26	东北5.64
2014	3.3313	0.03	42.20	东北14.79
2015	3.6940	0.11	39.81	东北75.76
2016	3.9656	0.07	28.11	东北58.47