多因素约束的城市空间扩张元胞自动机构建及其应用研究

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190240

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市空间扩张是复杂的社会经济进程,伴随着人口、政策和城市要素向外推进等现象,是评判城市化水平的重要指标。元胞自动机（Cellular Automata, CA）是可以模拟事物发展演化过程的系统动力学模型,可以有效揭示城市空间扩张过程的特征和机制,具有广阔的应用前景。根据Geo-CA的内涵与特征,以湖南省衡阳市为例,考虑城市空间扩张的主要影响因素,本文提出了多因素制约的城市空间扩张过程元胞自动机模拟模型（Multi-factors Constrained Expanding Simulation CA, MCES-CA）。结合多期LANDSET影像、DEM和规划数据等数据源,论文构建并实现了MCES-CA模型,取得了较好的模拟结果。经检验,MCES-CA的模拟精度总体达89.24%。模拟结果显示衡阳主城区的空间扩张具有多方向、多阶段的特征,受到城市的自然环境和发展规划等因素的制约。本文研究表明,MCES-CA是一种简洁、易实现且高效的城市空间扩张模拟工具,今后应该结合人工智能方法提高模拟结果的精度。

关键词: 城市空间扩张, 城市化, 约束因素, 元胞自动机, 模拟, 特征, 精度, 衡阳主城区

Abstract:

Urban Expansion (UE) is a critical parameter to examine urbanization level. In fact, UE is often accompanied with people, strategies, and urban elements extending over the old edge of city. Hence, UE is a highly complex socioeconomic phenomenon. Dynamic models are very effective to reveal the features and mechanisms of UE. In particular, Cellular Automata (CA) is one of the kinetic models to simulate the natural evolution process and famous for its broad range of applications. A large amount of research findings argue that CA is one of the most potential tools to understand UE. In this study, a multi-factor restricted expansion simulation model of CA (MCES-CA) was proposed according to CA's main features and the main influencing elements of UE. This paper took a middle-zone city named Hengyang City as the case study area. Hengyang City is located in southern Hunan Province of China, and has been positioning to develop into the regional central city of southern Hunan. Hence, it is high significant to reveal the main features and mechanisms of Hengyang City's expansion based on MCES-CA. Firstly, we downloaded LANDSAT images and ASTER DEMs through the internet, and collected Hengyang City's Planning datasets from the Planning Burau of Hengyang Government. Next, we developed the MCES-CA model by the Model Builder Tools of ArcGIS. Then, we ran it to observe the entire expansion process of Hengyang City from 2001 to 2017. We employed the Expanding Intensity Index (EII) and Expanding Velocity Index (EVI) to assess the MCES-CA model. Results show: (1) Hengyang City presented different expansion directions in different ages. (2) The spatial expansion process of Hengyang City was composed of two main stages. (3) The main factors of shaping the expansion process of Hengyang City were geo-environments and development planning. (4) The simulation results were in accordance with the real states of Hengyang's UE. Our findings suggest that MCES-CA is a potentially popular tool to capture the EU processes of cities because it is easy to build and complete. For future research, we can improve the simulation accuracy of MCES-CA by refining transformation rules.

Key words: Urban Expansion, urbanization, influencing factors, Cellular Automata, simulation, features, precisions, Hengyang City

胡最, 王慧. 多因素约束的城市空间扩张元胞自动机构建及其应用研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2020, 22(3): 616-627.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190240

HU Zui, WANG Hui. MCES-CA based Urban Expansion Simulation of Hengyang City[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2020, 22(3): 616-627.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190240

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类名	元胞	邻居	状态	转换规则
数据成员	空间坐标	空间坐标	工业	周围有铁路、港口、仓储等用地时转换成工业用地
	ID标识号	ID标识号	仓储	周围有铁路、港口、工业等用地时转换成仓储用地
	当前状态值	当前状态值	铁路	通过规划设定
	邻居集合	当前用地类型	道路	通过规划设定
	当前用地类型		港口	通过规划设定
	是否转换		居住	周围有工业、道路等用地时转换成居住用地
			设施	通过规划设定

用地名称	最小坡度/%	最大坡度/%
工业用地	0.2	10
仓储用地	0.2	10
铁路用地	0	2
城市道路用地	0.2	8
港口用地	0.2	5
居住用地	0.2	25
公共设施用地	0.2	20
其他	-	-

用地类型	0~2°	2~5°	5~15°	15~25°	25~64°
城区	1.56	0.18	2.49	1.36	0.33
非城区	0.6	1.53	0.04	0.81	1.99

年份	面积/km²	年份	面积/km²
2001	29.85	2010	64.76
2002	32.44	2011	66.80
2003	33.46	2012	69.42
2004	35.87	2013	71.27
2005	53.41	2014	72.28
2006	55.45	2015	73.98
2007	57.91	2016	76.05
2008	58.86	2017	80.13
2009	63.15