地球信息科学学报

地球信息科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (12): 2383-2392.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190369

• 地理空间分析综合应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

“海上丝绸之路”主要海域热带气旋时空分布特征及其危险性

徐新良1,*(), 申志成1,2, 李嘉豪1,2, 王世宽1   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京 100101
    2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2019-07-22 修回日期:2019-11-17 出版日期:2020-12-25 发布日期:2021-02-25
  • 通讯作者: 徐新良 E-mail:xuxl@lreis.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:徐新良（1972— ）,男,山东青岛人,博士,研究员,博士生导师,主要从事土地利用/土地覆被变化与陆地生态系统综合监测与评估研究。E-mail: xuxl@lreis.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010302)

The Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones Hazard in the Maritime Silk Road

XU Xinliang1,*(), SHEN Zhicheng1,2, LI Jiahao1,2, WANG Shikuan1   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2019-07-22 Revised:2019-11-17 Online:2020-12-25 Published:2021-02-25
  • Contact: XU Xinliang E-mail:xuxl@lreis.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    The Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20010302)

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摘要：

热带气旋作为一种海上灾害性天气,对“海上丝绸之路”海上航运影响重大。本文基于西北太平洋和北印度洋1990—2017年的热带气旋路径数据,结合热带气旋风场参数模型,利用缓冲区分析、叠加分析等GIS空间分析技术,系统研究了“海上丝绸之路”主要海域、主要海区、关键通道受热带气旋影响频次以及热带气旋危险性的时空分布特征。主要结论：① “海上丝绸之路”主要海域受热带气旋影响严重,表现在热带气旋影响范围广、影响频次高,其中西北太平洋较北印度洋受热带气旋影响更为严重,危险性更大;② 西北太平洋的15°N—30°N,120°E-—145°E海域热带气旋危险性最高;③ 热带气旋危险性季节变化较为明显,秋夏两季危险性较高,冬春两季危险性较低,在夏秋两季各月份中,7、8、9、10月危险最高;④ 在各海区中,中国东部海区热带气旋危险最高,其次是南海、日本海、孟加拉湾、阿拉伯海,而红海和波斯湾不受热带气旋影响;在各关键通道中,吕宋海峡热带气旋危险性最高,其次是台湾海峡、对马海峡、宗谷海峡、鞑靼海峡、保克海峡、霍尔木兹海峡,而马六甲海峡和曼德海峡无热带气旋危险。

关键词: 海上丝绸之路, 热带气旋, 危险性, 西北太平洋, 北印度洋, 风场模拟, 关键通道

Abstract:

As a powerful meteorological disaster, tropical cyclones have a great impact on the maritime shipping of the Maritime Silk Road. Base on the best track data of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean and the Northwest Pacific Ocean from 1990 to 2017, this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal characteristics of the tropicalcycloneshazard. First, the tropical cyclones are classified into 4 grades. Next, the Modified Rankine Vortex (MRV) model is used to simulate the wind field of each tropical cyclone. Then, the frequency of each grade of tropical cyclone that occurred in the research area can be obtained. Finally, a tropical cyclone hazard assessment model is used to assess the tropical cyclone hazard level in the main sea areas of the Maritime Silk Road.The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The sea areas of the Maritime Silk Road are seriously affected by tropical cycloneswith high occurrence frequency of tropical cyclones. The Northwest Pacific Ocean is more severely affected by tropical cyclones than the North Indian Ocean. (2)The sea areas between 15~30° North and 120~145° East are at the highest hazard level. (3) The seasonal change of tropical cyclone hazard is obvious. The tropical cyclone hazard levels of the sea areas of the North Indian Ocean and the Northwest Pacific Oceanare higher in autumn and summer than winter and spring. Moreover,in the summer and autumn, the sea areas in July, August, September and October have the relatively higher hazard levels. (4) Among the main sea areas, Eastern China Seais at the highest hazard level, followed by the South China Sea, the Sea of Japan, the Bay of Bengal, and the Arabian Sea, while the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf are not affected by tropical cyclones. Among the main channels, the Luzon Strait is at the highest hazard level, followed by the Taiwan Strait, the Tsushima Strait,the Soya Strait, the Tartar Strait, the Paco Strait, and the Strait of Hormuz, however the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Mande are not affected by tropical cyclone.

Key words: the Maritime Silk Road, tropical cyclones, hazard, the north Indian Ocean, the northwest Pacific Ocean, windfieldsimulation, main channels