地球信息科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (3): 557-567.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190415

• “土地利用模拟”专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于FLUS模型与动能定理的城镇用地增长边界划定

黄康1,2, 戴文远1,2,3,*(), 黄万里1,2,3, 欧惠1,2   

  1. 1. 福建师范大学 湿润亚热带生态地理过程教育部重点实验室,福州 350007
    2. 福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州 350007
    3. 福建师范大学地理研究所,福州 350007
  • 收稿日期:2019-07-31 修回日期:2020-01-10 出版日期:2020-03-25 发布日期:2020-05-18
  • 通讯作者: 戴文远 E-mail:dwygeo@fjnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:黄 康(1995— ),男,江西南昌人,硕士生,主要从事土地利用管理方面的研究。E-mail:814958549@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    福建省自然科学基金(2018J01741);福建省科技厅公益类重点项目(2017R1034-2);福建省测绘地理信息局科技基金(2017JX04)

Study on the Delimitation of Urban Growth Boundary based on FLUS Model and Kinetic Energy Theorem

HUANG Kang1,2, DAI Wenyuan1,2,3,*(), HUANG Wangli1,2,3, OU Hui1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Processes of the Ministry of Education, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
    2. School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
    3. Institute of Geography, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
  • Received:2019-07-31 Revised:2020-01-10 Online:2020-03-25 Published:2020-05-18
  • Contact: DAI Wenyuan E-mail:dwygeo@fjnu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(2018J01741);Key Public Welfare Projects of Science and Technology Department of Fujian Province(2017R1034-2);Science and Technology Fund of Surveying and Mapping Geographic Information Bureau of Fujian Province(2017JX04)

摘要:

城镇用地增长边界能够有效控制城市的无序蔓延,对城市健康持续发展具有重要意义。当前针对城镇用地增长边界划定的研究多采用较为成熟的元胞自动机(CA)模型对城市未来格局进行模拟,且研究多集中于单一的城镇用地增长边界划定,尚无对城镇用地增长的惯性边界进行定量划定,而划定惯性边界不仅能够为城市发展预留一定的用地空间,也能提高城市规划的实施效率。对此,本文以2000、2009和2015年福州中心城区土地利用数据为基础,采用FLUS模型进行土地利用模拟,并对模型精度进行了验证(2015年土地利用模拟总体精度达到0.9389,Kappa系数达0.9165),据此预测了2027年的土地利用格局,从中提取城镇用地采取形态学的膨胀与腐蚀法(MED)进行增长边界的划定。在此基础上,本文提出了一种借鉴力学动能定理划定城镇用地增长惯性边界的方法,以坡度和地类作为摩擦力参数,对福州中心城区城镇用地增长惯性边界进行了研究。结果表明,FLUS模型和MED能够有效地对土地利用进行模拟且能较好的对城镇用地增长边界进行拟合;借鉴动能定理的方法能够根据城市不同方向的扩展阻力和各个方向的扩展强度较好地划定其惯性边界,具有现实可操作性和实际参考价值。

关键词: 城镇用地增长边界, 惯性边界, FLUS模型, 腐蚀与膨胀, 动能定理, 福州中心城区

Abstract:

:Delineation of urban growth boundary is an important means to prevent the disorderly spread of urban land, protect the ecological environment of the open space outside the cities, and realize the smart growth of cities, which is of great significance to the healthy and sustainable development of cities. Currently, the studies on urban growth boundary delineation mostly use model method, such as Cellular Automata (CA) model, a relatively mature model, to simulate future urban patterns. However, these studies mostly focuses on the delineation of urban growth boundary. There is little effort on quantitative delineation of the inertia boundary of urban growth. The delineation of inertial boundaries can not only reserve a certain space for urban development, but also improve implementation efficiency in urban planning. Based on this, we proposed a method based on the kinetic energy theorem of the mechanics. The FLUS model and the Morphological Erosion and Dilation method (MED) were used to delineate the urban growth boundary. Slope and land use type were used as the frictional force to delimit the inertial boundary. The FLUS model inherits the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and the Cellular Automaton(CA) model for simulating and predicting the future urban landscape. The MED was used for the clustering of urban neighborhoods to merge into a single area, while eliminating small but isolated urban plaque. In our paper, we selected Fuzhou, a coastal developed city with obvious changes in recent years, as the study area. We simulated the land use patterns from 2000 to 2015 to verify the accuracy of the model. The overall accuracy of land use simulation in 2015 was 0.9389 and the Kappa coefficient was 0.9165. We further predicted the land use pattern in 2027, and delineated the urban growth boundary and inertia boundary in 2027. Results show that the FLUS model and MED can effectively simulate land use and better fit the growth boundary of urban land use. Using the method of kinetic energy theorem for reference, the inertia boundary of a city can be well delineated according to the expansion resistance in different directions and the expansion intensity in different directions, which provides practical operability and reference values for future study.

Key words: urban growth boundary, inertial boundary, FLUS model, erosion and dilation, kinetic energy theorem, Fuzhou central city