基于FLUS模型和SD模型耦合的中巴经济走廊土地利用变化多情景模拟

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190618

地球信息科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (12): 2393-2409.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190618

• 地理空间分析综合应用 • 上一篇下一篇

基于FLUS模型和SD模型耦合的中巴经济走廊土地利用变化多情景模拟

张晓荣¹^,²(), 李爱农¹^,^*(), 南希¹^,³, 雷光斌¹, 王昌博¹^,²

1.中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都 610041
2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
3.成都理工大学地球科学学院,成都 610059

收稿日期:2019-10-20 修回日期:2020-01-11 出版日期:2020-12-25 发布日期:2021-02-25
通讯作者: 李爱农 E-mail:zhxr_1991@163.com;ainongli@imde.ac.cn
作者简介:张晓荣（1991— ）,男,湖北利川人,硕士生,主要从事土地利用变化模拟。E-mail: zhxr_1991@163.com
基金资助:
中国科学院战略性先导专项“地球大数据科学工程”子课题(XDA19030303);国家自然科学基金项目(41631180);国家自然科学基金项目(41801370);国家自然科学基金项目(41701433);中国科学院成都山地所“一三五”重要方向性项目(SDS-135-1708)

Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Change Along China-Pakistan Economic Corridor through Coupling FLUS Model with SD Model

ZHANG Xiaorong¹^,²(), LI Ainong¹^,^*(), NAN Xi¹^,³, LEI Guangbin¹, WANG Changbo¹^,²

1. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. College of Earth Science, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China

Received:2019-10-20 Revised:2020-01-11 Online:2020-12-25 Published:2021-02-25
Contact: LI Ainong E-mail:zhxr_1991@163.com;ainongli@imde.ac.cn
Supported by:
Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA19030303);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41631180);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801370);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41701433);135 Strategic Program of the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences(SDS-135-1708)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中巴经济走廊的规划和建设离不开对走廊沿线土地资源、生态环境空间格局及变化过程的科学认识。未来土地利用变化模拟研究,可为区域土地资源管理、生态环境可持续性和潜在风险评估等研究提供可靠的预测数据。本文通过耦合系统动力学模型（SD）和未来用地模拟模型（FLUS）,并结合中巴经济走廊建设和区域的生态环境政策等设置多种情景对中巴经济走廊进行土地利用模拟,充分发挥2个模型在宏观土地需求模拟以及微观土地分配上的优势。首先根据2009—2015年的历史数据构建并验证了区域土地利用SD-FLUS模型,然后模拟了2016—2030年中巴经济走廊区域惯性发展、投资优先以及和谐发展3种不同情景下的土地利用变化。结果表明：① 历年的总量模拟相对误差均小于9.00%,2015年喀什和巴基斯坦模拟的总体精度均达到90.00%以上、Kappa系数达到0.90以上,说明SD和FLUS耦合模型能有效模拟中巴经济走廊土地利用变化格局,适用于其土地利用变化的情景模拟;② 到2030年,不同情景之间的土地利用存在明显的差异。在3种情景下建设用地均扩张,和谐发展情景扩张速度居中,该情景下喀什建设用地增加了235.17 km²,巴基斯坦增加了4942.80 km²,而扩张最快的投资优先情景下,喀什建设用地增加了265.23 km²（惯性发展情景仅增加163.71 km²）,巴基斯坦建设用地增加了5918.91 km²（惯性发展情景仅增加2861.84 km²）;巴基斯坦和谐情景下的耕地增量（4768.60 km²）不到增长最多的惯性发展情景的一半,喀什耕地在和谐发展情景增加了604.44 km²,不到投资优先情景的3/4;3种情景中只有和谐发展情景下的林地得到了有效的恢复。总体而言,和谐发展情景兼顾了社会经济发展和生态环境保护,是3种情景中最理想的情景。模型模拟结果可为中巴经济走廊的可持续性研究和生态环境评估等提供一定的数据和方法支撑。

关键词: 土地利用变化, 中巴经济走廊, FLUS模型, SD模型, 模型耦合, 多情景, 模拟, 生态环境

Abstract:

Planning and construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is inseparable from the scientific cognition of the spatial patterns and changing processes of land resources and eco-environment in this area. Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) simulation can provide reliable prediction data for regional land resources management, eco-environment sustainability, and eco-environment risk assessment. In this paper, based on the coupled System Dynamics Model (SD) and future Land Use Simulation Model (FLUS), combined with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor construction and regional eco-environment policies, various scenarios were set up to simulate the land use change of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, taking full advantages of the two models in macro land demand simulation and micro land allocation. Firstly, the SD-FLUS model was constructed and validated using the historical data of CPEC in 2009-2015. Then the land use changes from 2016 to 2030 under three different scenarios, namely Baseline Development (BD)scenario, Investment Priority Oriented (IPO) scenario, and Harmonious Development (HD) scenario, were simulated. Results show that: (1) The relative error of demand simulation was less than 9%, and the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient of the simulation were over 90% against the actual land use data in 2015, which indicates the SD-FLUS coupling model effectively reflected the land use change pattern of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The model could be used for further simulation of land use changes in CPEC under different scenarios; (2) There are significant differences in simulated land use under different scenarios until 2030. Construction land expanded under all three scenarios but at different speeds. The expansion speed of HD scenario was in the middle. Under this scenario, the construction land in Kashgar and Pakistan increased by 235.17 km² and 4942.80 km², respectively. The expansion speed under the IPO scenario was the fastest, with the construction land in Kashgar increased by 265.23 km² and construction land in Pakistan increased by 5918.91 km². Under the BD scenario, the construction land in Kashgar and Pakistan increased by 163.71 km² and 2861.84 km², respectively. Under the HD scenario, increment of Pakistan's cultivated land area was less than half of that under BD scenario. Kashgar's cultivated land area increased the most in IPO scenario (about 882.54 km²), which was about three quarters of that in the HD scenario. The forest land was effectively restored only under the HD scenario. Generally, the HD scenario taking both social-economic development and eco-environment protection into account is the most ideal scenario among the three scenarios. Our simulation results can provide useful data support for the construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the assessment of eco-environment in the future.

Key words: Land use/cover change, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, FLUS model, SD model, model coupling, multi-scenario, simulation, eco-environment

张晓荣, 李爱农, 南希, 雷光斌, 王昌博. 基于FLUS模型和SD模型耦合的中巴经济走廊土地利用变化多情景模拟[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2020, 22(12): 2393-2409.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190618

ZHANG Xiaorong, LI Ainong, NAN Xi, LEI Guangbin, WANG Changbo. Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Change Along China-Pakistan Economic Corridor through Coupling FLUS Model with SD Model[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2020, 22(12): 2393-2409.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190618

图/表 11

图1

表1

图2

表2

表3

2016—2030年CPEC不同发展情景参数设置"

情景	变量	喀什地区	巴基斯坦
惯性发展	人口增长率	$r (x) = r (1 - x / x max)$ ^[46]	$r (x) = r (1 - x / x max)$
	GDP增长率	12%线性下降至6%	保持5%
	年降雨变化/（mm/a）	0.100	-0.089
	年均温变化/（℃/a）	0.020	0.024
	技术创新/%	0.30	1.50
投资优先	人口增长率	1.5%	保持1.9%
	GDP增长率	12%	5%线性增长到10%
	年降雨变化/（mm/a）	0.750	0.173
	年均温变化/（℃/a）	0.040	0.051
	技术创新/%	0.50	2.00
和谐发展	人口增长率	1.5%线性下降到1.0%	1.9%线性下降到1.7%
	GDP增长率	12%线性下降到10%	5%线性增长到9%
	年降雨变化/（mm/a）	0.125	0.126
	年均温变化/（℃/a）	0.030	0.041
	技术创新/%	0.50	2.00

表3

图3

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

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类别	数据名称	时间	数据属性/ 空间分辨率	数据来源	数据用途
土地利用	土地利用数据	2009—2015	栅格/300 m	Climate Change Initiative-Land Cover (CCI-LC)^[24]	SD、FLUS模型的输入数据和验证数据
社会经济	人口密度	2010	栅格/100 m	WorldPop^[25]	FLUS模型输入数据
	GDP	2010	栅格/1 km	Global Risk Data Platform^[26]	同上
	人口统计数据	2009—2015	统计数据	喀什地区统计年鉴、巴基斯坦统计年鉴、联合国开发计划署^[27]	SD模型的构建
	GDP统计数据	2009—2015	统计数据	同上	同上
基础地理信息	居民点	2012	矢量	南亚资源环境数据库（课题组提供）	FLUS模型输入数据
	路网		矢量	同上	同上
	河流		矢量	同上	同上
地形	DEM	2007	栅格/30m	美国国家航空航天局^[28]	FLUS模型输入数据
	坡度			由DEM计算获得	同上
	坡向			同上	同上
土壤	土壤PH	2013	栅格/250m	World Soil Information^[29]	FLUS模型输入数据
	含沙量				同上
	土壤深度				同上
	有机碳含量				同上
气候	年均温	1985—2015	矢量	美国国家气象数据中心^[30]	FLUS模型输入数据
气候	年降雨	1985—2015	矢量	同上	同上

排放情景	情景描述
IPCC-SERS A2	高排放情景,人类活动加剧,温室气体的排放加快,气温和降水均快速增加
IPCC-SERS A1B	中等排放情景,气温和降水在3种情景中呈现中等增加趋势
IPCC-SERS B1	低排放情景,气温和降水等维持当前的变化趋势

基于FLUS模型和SD模型耦合的中巴经济走廊土地利用变化多情景模拟

Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Change Along China-Pakistan Economic Corridor through Coupling FLUS Model with SD Model

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