“一带一路”成员国居民健康状况的时空统计分析

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190635

地球信息科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (5): 1133-1141.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190635

• “空间综合人文学与社会科学”专辑 • 上一篇下一篇

“一带一路”成员国居民健康状况的时空统计分析

郭文杰¹, 秦昆^1,^*(), 毛宗福², 王一喆¹, 汪瑶², 许刚¹, 马露²

1.武汉大学遥感信息工程学院,武汉 430079
2.武汉大学健康学院,武汉 430071

收稿日期:2019-10-28 修回日期:2020-01-08 出版日期:2020-05-25 发布日期:2020-07-25
通讯作者: 秦昆 E-mail:qink@whu.edu.cn
作者简介:郭文杰（1996— ）,女,河北邯郸人,硕士生,主要研究方向为空间分析。E-mail:2018202130007@whu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0503604);地理国情监测国家测绘地理信息局重点实验室开放基金(2018NGCM09)

Spatio-temporal Statistical Analysis of Health Status of the Residents of the Belt and Road Member Countries

GUO Wenjie¹, QIN Kun^1,^*(), MAO Zongfu², WANG Yizhe¹, WANG Yao², XU Gang¹, MA Lu²

1. School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
2. School of Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China

Received:2019-10-28 Revised:2020-01-08 Online:2020-05-25 Published:2020-07-25
Contact: QIN Kun E-mail:qink@whu.edu.cn
Supported by:
National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFB0503604);Open Foundation of Key Laboratory for National Geography State Monitoring (National Administration of Surveying, Mapping and Geoinformation)(2018NGCM09)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

健康是影响不同国家和地区发展的关键因素,全面了解“一带一路”成员国的居民健康状况,是探讨“一带一路”成员国之间健康医疗合作的重要基础。本文选择了4个代表性的健康状况指标（出生期望寿命、总生育率、过早非传染性疾病死亡率和结核病发病率）,利用Moran's I指数、Getis-Ord G指数对“一带一路”135个成员国的健康状况进行时空统计,分析了健康状况的空间相关性和空间分布模式,研究了健康状况的时空格局。研究发现：① 2000—2016年“一带一路”大部分成员国的各项健康状况指标均朝着改善和优化方向发展;健康状况指标均呈现显著的正空间自相关性;② 总体而言,在“一带一路”成员国中,欧洲国家的居民健康状况最好;南北美洲和大洋洲国家的居民健康状况良好;亚洲国家的居民健康状况总体良好,但东南亚部分国家的结核病发病率较高;非洲国家的居民健康状况虽有明显改善,但仍处于较低状态。因此,“一带一路”成员国应进一步加强健康医疗合作,共同推动健康丝绸之路的发展。

关键词: 一带一路, 健康状况, 时空统计, 出生期望寿命, 过早非传染性疾病死亡率, 总生育率, 结核病发病率, 时空格局

Abstract:

Health is a key factor that affects the development of different countries and regions. It is very important to understand the health status of the residents in the Belt and Road countries to further explore the health cooperation along the Belt and Road. This paper selected four representative health indicators, including life expectancy at birth, premature noncommunicable disease mortality, total fertility, and tuberculosis incidence, and used Moran's I index and Getis-Ord G index to conduct spatial statistics on the health status of 135 countries along the Belt and Road. This paper analyzed the spatial auto correlation of health status and the temporal and spatial patterns of health status. We found that the health indicators of most countries along the Belt and Road showed a trend toward improvement and optimization between 2000 and 2016. Health indicators of Belt and Road countries showed significant positive spatial auto correlation. In general, countries in Europe hadexcellent health condition, countries in South America, North America, and Oceania werein a good health condition, and countries in Asia werein good health condition as well, but the countries in Southeast Asia had high incidence of tuberculosis. The health status of the countries in Africa had improved significantly, but still in a poorhealth condition. Member countries should further strengthen the cooperation in health to promote the development of the Healthy Silk Road.

Key words: the Belt and Road, health status, spatial statistics, life expectancy at birth, early NCD mortality, total fertility rate, incidence of tuberculosis, spatial and temporal pattern

郭文杰, 秦昆, 毛宗福, 王一喆, 汪瑶, 许刚, 马露. “一带一路”成员国居民健康状况的时空统计分析[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2020, 22(5): 1133-1141.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190635

GUO Wenjie, QIN Kun, MAO Zongfu, WANG Yizhe, WANG Yao, XU Gang, MA Lu. Spatio-temporal Statistical Analysis of Health Status of the Residents of the Belt and Road Member Countries[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2020, 22(5): 1133-1141.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190635

图/表 5

表1

2019年10月“一带一路”沿线国家范围"

主要地区	国家
亚洲41国	叙利亚、乌兹别克斯坦、韩国、斯里兰卡、塔吉克斯坦、沙特阿拉伯、蒙古国、尼泊尔、马尔代夫、马来西亚、伊拉克、伊朗、吉尔吉斯斯坦、老挝、哈萨克斯坦、卡塔尔、科威特、格鲁吉亚、孟加拉国、亚美尼亚、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、缅甸、文莱、东帝汶、不丹、阿联酋、泰国、越南、新加坡、以色列、阿塞拜疆、土库曼斯坦、黎巴嫩、阿曼、巴林、也门、约旦、巴基斯坦、阿富汗、柬埔寨
欧洲28国	马耳他、土耳其、乌克兰、俄罗斯、斯洛伐克、波兰、保加利亚、罗马尼亚、塞尔维亚、北马其顿、摩尔多瓦、匈牙利、白俄罗斯、捷克、斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚、爱沙尼亚、阿尔巴尼亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、波黑、黑山、奥地利、希腊、塞浦路斯、卢森堡、意大利、葡萄牙
非洲40国	马里、佛得角、南非、埃及、摩洛哥、埃塞俄比亚、苏丹、马达加斯加、卢旺达、塞内加尔、突尼斯、利比亚、毛里塔尼亚、吉布提、几内亚、索马里、多哥、冈比亚、乌干达、布隆迪、坦桑尼亚、津巴布韦、刚果（布）、乍得、尼日利亚、肯尼亚、安哥拉、纳米比亚、加蓬、莫桑比克、赞比亚、加纳、塞舌尔、南苏丹、喀麦隆、塞拉利昂、科特迪瓦、阿尔及利亚、赤道几内亚、利比里亚
南美洲8国	苏里南、玻利维亚、圭亚那、乌拉圭、委内瑞拉、秘鲁、智利、厄瓜多尔
北美洲11国	萨尔瓦多、牙买加、巴拿马、特立尼达和多巴哥、安提瓜和巴布达、多米尼克、哥斯达黎加、多米尼加、古巴、巴巴多斯、格林纳达
大洋洲7国	萨摩亚、新西兰、巴布亚新几内亚、瓦努阿图、汤加、斐济、密克罗尼西亚联邦

表1

表2

图1

表3

图2

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健康状况类别	指标
按年龄和性别划分的死亡率 (Mortality by Age and Sex)	出生期望寿命、青少年死亡率、成人死亡率（15~60岁之间）、5岁以下儿童死亡率、婴儿死亡率、新生儿死亡率、死胎率
生育能力(Fertility)	青少年生育率、总生育率
病因死亡率(Mortality by Cause)	孕产妇死亡率、结核病死亡率、与艾滋病相关的死亡率、疟疾死亡率、过早非传染性疾病死亡率、家庭和环境空气污染造成的死亡率、不安全的饮水,不安全的卫生设施和缺乏卫生措施造成的死亡率、意外中毒造成的死亡率、自杀率、道路交通意外造成的死亡率、每10万人当中因灾害死亡、失踪和直接受影响的人数、因杀人罪导致的死亡率
发病率(Morbidity)	疫苗可预防疾病的新病例、IHR法定报告疾病和其他法定传染病的新病例、艾滋病毒感染率、艾滋病毒发病率、乙型肝炎表面抗原患病率、乙型肝炎发病率、性传播感染发病率、结核病发病率、结核病呈报率、6—59个月儿童的疟疾寄生虫感染率、疟疾发病率、癌症发病率

指标	年份	Moran's I	Z得分
出生期望寿命	2000	0.711	23.762
	2010	0.669	22.359
	2016	0.645	21.575
过早非传染性疾病死亡率	2000	0.667	22.288
	2010	0.735	24.519
	2016	0.761	25.368
总生育率	2000	0.719	24.012
	2010	0.720	24.054
	2016	0.727	24.276
结核病发病率	2000	0.414	14.059
	2010	0.387	13.248
	2016	0.426	14.454

“一带一路”成员国居民健康状况的时空统计分析

Spatio-temporal Statistical Analysis of Health Status of the Residents of the Belt and Road Member Countries

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