基于气象监测网络的森林火险快速预警模型

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190799

地球信息科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (12): 2317-2325.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190799

• 地球信息科学理论与方法 • 上一篇下一篇

基于气象监测网络的森林火险快速预警模型

李玉¹^,³^,⁴(), 张黎明¹^,³^,⁴^,^*(), 张兴国², 王昊¹^,³^,⁴, 张鑫港¹^,³^,⁴

1.兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院,兰州 730070
2.信阳师范学院地理科学学院,信阳 464000
3.地理国情监测技术应用国家地方联合工程研究,兰州 730070
4.甘肃省地理国情监测工程实验室,兰州 730070

收稿日期:2019-12-24 修回日期:2020-03-25 出版日期:2020-12-25 发布日期:2021-02-25
通讯作者: 张黎明 E-mail:2447041365@qq.com;zhang_lm@163.com
作者简介:李玉（1996— ）,女,河南信阳人,硕士生,主要从事地理信息安全及GIS应用研究。E-mail: 2447041365@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41761080);甘肃高等学校产业支撑引导项目(2019C-04);受兰州交通大学优秀平台支持(201806);河南省自然科学基金资助项目(202300410345)

Forest Fire Risk Rapid Warning Model based on Meteorological Monitoring Network

LI Yu¹^,³^,⁴(), ZHANG Liming¹^,³^,⁴^,^*(), ZHANG Xingguo², WANG Hao¹^,³^,⁴, ZHANG Xingang¹^,³^,⁴

1. Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China
2. College of Geography Science, Xinyang Normal University, Xinyang 464000, China
3. National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring, Lanzhou 730070, China
4. Gansu Provincial Engineering Laboratory for National Geographic State Monitoring, Lanzhou 730070, China

Received:2019-12-24 Revised:2020-03-25 Online:2020-12-25 Published:2021-02-25
Contact: ZHANG Liming E-mail:2447041365@qq.com;zhang_lm@163.com
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41761080);Industrial Support and Guidance Projects of Colleges and Universities in Gansu Province(2019C-04);Funded by LZJTU EP(201806);Natural Science Foundation of Henan(202300410345)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

森林火灾发生频繁且突发性强,进行森林火险快速预警对于减小森林火灾损失和促进森林资源可持续发展至关重要。本文基于GIS空间分析和可视化技术,利用地面气象站构建实时气象监测网络,设计了运用气象监测网络的森林火险预警模型,可实现森林火险及时、快速预警。模型应用层次分析法建立了预警因子重要性层次结构并确定预警因子的权重;运用Voronoi图技术,基于气象站点和实时气象数据,构建气象监测网络;利用叠置分析技术计算得出预警结果。基于该模型设计的森林火灾快速预警系统应用于青海省林业局,验证了系统可行性与适用性,该模型可全面、准确、快速地实现对森林火险的预警。结果表明：① 根据预警模型及实时气象监测数据,可及时发出预警信号,快速实现县级、林场级别的森林火险早期预警和及时响应;② 运用GIS可视化技术,可快速生成相关区域森林火险的空间分布专题图,直观地观察预警等级的变化情况。实践表明,森林火险快速预警对森林火灾进行有效预防、中断管理和制定扑救措施具有重要的指导作用,并对森林防火工作、保护森林资源和人类生命财产安全具有重大意义。

关键词: GIS, 气象监测网络, 森林火险预警, 气象因素, 植被类型, 与道路的距离, 层析分析法, Voronoi图

Abstract:

Forest fire occurs frequently and suddenly. Therefore, it is essential to carry out the rapid warning of forest fire danger for the reduction of the loss caused by forest fire and the promotion of sustainable development of forest resources. This paper designs an early-warning model based on GIS spatial analysis and visualization technology and the construction of real-time meteorological monitoring network using ground meteorological stations, which can achieve timely and rapid warning of forest fire danger. To build the model, this paper first determines the forest fire danger early-warning factors, which are the input parameters of the model. Secondly, a hierarchy model of the importance of early warning indicators is constructed to determine the weight of the early warning factors via using the AHP method and combining the analysis of early warning factors. Then, the thresholds and grade division criteria of the early-warning factor are determined according to the national, industrial, and local regulations for determining forest fire danger levels, which is suitable for the model. Finally, the Voronoi Diagrams are used to establish a meteorological monitoring network based on weather stations and real-time weather data. The Overlay Analysis technology is used to calculate the early warning result. Based on the model and real-time acquisition and processing of data, a rapid warning system for forest fires was constructed. This paper took Qinghai Province as the experimental area where the feasibility and applicability of the system were verified, which indicates that early warning of forest fire danger can be realized by the model comprehensively, accurately, and rapidly. Results show that: (1) According to the early-warning model, the real-time early-warning indicators which were set before, and real-time meteorological monitoring data, the early-warning signal can be sent in time, which can quickly realize early warning and timely response of forest fire risks at the county and forest farm levels; (2) Via introducing GIS visualization methods, the thematic map of forest fire risk spatial distribution can be generated by the model quickly, which is conducive to observe changes in early-warning levels visually. The rapid warning of forest fire risks has important guiding functions for effective prevention, interruption management, and prevention measures of forest fire, and has great significance for forest fire prevention work, protection of forest resources, and safety of human life and property.

Key words: Geographic Information Systems, weather monitoring network, forest fire risk early warning, meteorological factors, vegetation types, distance from roads, analytic hierarchy process, Voronoi diagram

李玉, 张黎明, 张兴国, 王昊, 张鑫港. 基于气象监测网络的森林火险快速预警模型[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2020, 22(12): 2317-2325.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190799

LI Yu, ZHANG Liming, ZHANG Xingguo, WANG Hao, ZHANG Xingang. Forest Fire Risk Rapid Warning Model based on Meteorological Monitoring Network[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2020, 22(12): 2317-2325.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190799

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参考文献 21

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重要性标度	p因子与q因子比较的结果
1	p因子与q因子同等重要
3	p因子比q因子稍微重要
5	p因子比q因子明显重要
7	p因子比q因子强烈重要
9	p因子比q因子极端重要
2,4,6,8	重要性介于上述相邻判断的中间值

预警因子	C1	C2	C3	C4	C5	C6	C7	C8	权重
C1	1	2	2	4	3	6	7	5	0.2957
C2	1/2	1	1	3	2	5	6	4	0.1918
C3	1/2	1	1	3	2	5	6	4	0.1918
C4	1/4	1/3	1/3	1	1/2	3	4	2	0.0811
C5	1/3	1/2	1/2	2	1	4	5	3	0.1234
C6	1/6	1/5	1/5	1/3	1/4	1	2	1/2	0.0364
C7	1/7	1/6	1/6	1/4	1/5	1/2	1	1/3	0.0260
C8	1/5	1/4	1/4	1/2	1/3	2	3	1	0.0538

级别	林业类型范围	与道路的距离/m	温度范围 /℃	湿度范围 /%	风力范围 /（m/s）	连续无效降雨天数/d	干旱指标	季节
1	0.0~0.99	20 000~100 000	-60~20	90~100	0.0~0.2	0~3	无干旱	-
2	0.99~1.0	13 000~20 000	-20~0	80~90	0.2~1.5	4~6	无干旱	-
3	1.0~1.5	10 000~13 000	0~5	70~80	1.5~3.3	7~10	无干旱	-
4	1.5~2.0	8000~10 000	5~10	60~70	3.3~5.4	11~20	轻度干旱	-
5	2.0~2.5	6000~8000	10~15	50~60	5.4~8.0	21~25	中度干旱	-
6	2.5~3.0	4500~6000	15~20	40~50	8.0~10.8	26~30	中度干旱	夏
7	3.0~3.5	3000~4500	20~25	30~40	10.8~13.8	31~35	严重干旱	-
8	3.5~4.0	1800~3000	25~30	20~30	13.8~17.2	35~40	严重干旱	春/秋
9	4.0~4.5	800~1800	30~35	10~20	17.2~20.7	40~45	严重干旱	-
10	4.5~5.0	0~800	35~60	0~10	20.7~50.0	>45	极度干旱	冬

林火天气预警等级	名称	危险程度	栅格图层预警结果	颜色	预警标志
一级	低火险	低	-800~1.0	无色	-
二级	较低火险	较低	1.0~4.8	淡黄色	-
三级	较高火险	较高	4.8~6.5	浅橙色	黄旗
四级	高火险	高	6.5~8.2	橙色	橙旗
五级	极高火险	极高	8.2~10.0	红色	红旗

时间	气象因子	西宁市		同仁县		河南县
时间	气象因子	监测值	级别	监测值	级别	监测值	级别
2019年4月1日10时	温度	9.4	4	9.7	4	5.3	4
	湿度	24	7	26	8	50	8
	风力	2.5	3	2.3	7	2.4	5
	干旱	极度干旱	10	极度干旱	10	极度干旱	10
	季节	春季	8	春季	8	春季	8

基于气象监测网络的森林火险快速预警模型

Forest Fire Risk Rapid Warning Model based on Meteorological Monitoring Network

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