1992—2017年基于夜光遥感的中亚社会经济发展时空特征分析

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190808

地球信息科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (7): 1449-1462.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190808

• 专栏:一带一路重大工程遥感 • 上一篇下一篇

1992—2017年基于夜光遥感的中亚社会经济发展时空特征分析

朱惠¹^,²(), 张清凌¹^,³^,^*(), 张珊¹^,²

1.中国科学院大学新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐 830011;
2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049;
3.中山大学航空航天学院,广州 510275

收稿日期:2019-12-27 修回日期:2020-03-04 出版日期:2020-07-25 发布日期:2020-09-25
通讯作者: 张清凌 E-mail:zhuhui17@mails.ucas.ac.cn;zhangqling@mails.sysu.edu.cn
作者简介:朱惠（1994— ）,女,四川自贡人,硕士生,主要从事夜光遥感研究。E-mail:zhuhui17@mails.ucas.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0504204);中国科学院百人计划(2015,张清凌)

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Socio-Economic Development in Central Asia based on A Series of Nighttime Light Images from 1992 to 2017

ZHU Hui¹^,²(), ZHANG Qingling¹^,³^,^*(), ZHANG Shan¹^,²

1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
2. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
3. School of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China

Received:2019-12-27 Revised:2020-03-04 Online:2020-07-25 Published:2020-09-25
Contact: ZHANG Qingling E-mail:zhuhui17@mails.ucas.ac.cn;zhangqling@mails.sysu.edu.cn
Supported by:
National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFB0504204);Hundred Talents Program of Chinese Academy of Science(2015,张清凌)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中亚各国自独立以来,先后经历了政治经济改革、俄罗斯金融危机、全球金融危机、国际原料价格浮动等多次重大事件。为研究中亚地区1992—2017年近30年的社会经济发展变化,以DMSP/OLS、NPP/VIIRS夜光数据以及年鉴数据为数据源,采用夜光总量（SNL）、夜光增长率（PNLG）等指数并结合社会经济参量对中亚社会经济的时空动态发展过程及驱动因子进行分析,研究结果表明：① 夜光可较好的反映中亚国家社会经济发展的时空变化,且夜光对社会经济发展变化的反映较GDP等社会经济参量更直观更敏感;② 独立初期的社会经济改革对中亚地区影响大、范围广,仅土库曼斯坦夜光总量（SNL）增长4.5%,其他各国夜光总量（SNL）均有下滑;③ 20世纪以来的中亚国家由于基础条件、资源禀赋等的差异,各国间差距逐渐拉大,抗风险能力差异大。如全球金融危机（2008年）对塔吉克斯坦影响最大（PNLG=-36.4%）,哈萨克斯坦影响最小（PNLG=-3.6%）;④ 中亚国家易受国际能源市场价格的影响尤其是油气价格增长。通过夜光对中亚社会经济的研究分析,能为中亚区域安全保障以及“一带一路”倡议的实施提供决策参考。

关键词: 中亚, DMSP/OLS, NPP/VIIRS, 夜光, 遥感, 社会经济, GDP, 自然资源

Abstract:

This paper takes Central Asian as study area, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Since the independence of these countries, they have experienced many significant events, such as political and economic reforms, the Russian financial crisis, the global financial crisis, and the fluctuation of international raw material prices. In order to study the socio-economic developments and changes of Central Asia in the past 30 years (1992—2017), based on DMSP/OLS, NPP/VIIRS, and yearbook data, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal developments and their driving factors using the total Night-time Light (SNL) index, the Night-time Light Growth Rate (PNLG), as well as the socio-economic data. The results show that: (1) Night-time light can better characterize the spatiotemporal changes of the socio-economic development. Also, night-time light is more intuitive and sensitive than the socio-economic parameters such as GDP; (2) The socio-economic reforms in the early period of independence had a large and wide impact on Central Asia. The SNL of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan declined largely. Only the SNL of Turkmenistan increased by 4.5%; (3) Due to differences in basic socio-economic conditions and the richness of natural resources, the gaps of night-time light in Central Asian countries have gradually widened, and the abilities to withstand risks have greatly varied. For example, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are rich in natural resources, especially oil and gas, while Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have few natural resources. When the 2008 global financial crisis occurred, Kazakhstan was least affected (PNLG= -3.6%) while Tajikistan was most affected (PNLG = -36.4%); (4) Central Asian countries are susceptible to the impact of international energy market prices, especially the increase of oil and gas prices. The sharp rise in the price of international raw materials market in 2000, especially the price of oil and gas, had led to a sharp rise in SNL and a quick rebound in economy of Central Asian countries. However, the decline of international oil and gas prices in 2015 hammered the development of Central Asian countries who heavily relied on the exports of oil and gas. Based on the nighttime light images from 1992 to 2017, this paper studies the spatiotemporal characteristics of socio-economic development in Central Asian countries in nearly 30 years since the independence, and then explores the driving factors. This study can provide decision-making reference for the security guarantee of Central Asia and the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Key words: Central Asia, DMSP/OLS, NPP/VIIR, nighttime light, remote sensing, social and economic development, GDP, natural resources

朱惠, 张清凌, 张珊. 1992—2017年基于夜光遥感的中亚社会经济发展时空特征分析[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2020, 22(7): 1449-1462.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190808

ZHU Hui, ZHANG Qingling, ZHANG Shan. Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Socio-Economic Development in Central Asia based on A Series of Nighttime Light Images from 1992 to 2017[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2020, 22(7): 1449-1462.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190808

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国家	人口/人	面积/km²	人均GDP/美元
中亚地区	7.1×10⁷	4.0×10⁶	2 2242.36
哈萨克斯坦	1.8×10⁷	2.7×10⁶	10867.74
乌兹别克斯坦	3.2×10⁷	4.5×10⁵	1961.33
土库曼斯坦	5.8×10⁶	4.9×10⁵	7318.07
吉尔吉斯斯坦	6.1×10⁶	2.0×10⁵	1070.37
塔吉克斯坦	8.9×10⁶	1.4×10⁵	1024.86

数据集	时段	空间分辨率	数据来源	网址
DMSP夜光数据	1992—2012	约1 km	NOAA	https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/eog/dmsp/downloadV4composites.html
VIIRS夜光数据	2012—2017	约500 m	NOAA	http://ngdc.noaa.gov/eog/viirs/download_viirs_ntl.html
油气活动多边形	1995—2006	—	NOAA	https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/eog/interest/gas_flares.html
社会经济参数	1992—2017	—	世界银行	https://data.worldbank.org.cn/
			BP世界能源统计	https://www.bp.com/
			中亚国家统计年鉴	http://www.zywx.xjlas.org
行政边界	2018	—	GADM	https://gadm.org/

卫星号	年份
F10	1992、1993、1994
F12	1994、1995、1996、1997、1998、1999
F14	1997、1998、1999、2000、2002、2001、2002
F15	2000、2001、2002、2003、2004、2005、2007
F16	2004、2005、2006、2007、2008、2009
F18	2010、2011、2012

时段	哈萨克斯坦	乌兹别克斯坦	土库曼斯坦	吉尔吉斯斯坦	塔吉克斯坦
1992—1998	-42.9	-11.0	4.5	-0.5	-33.7
1999—2000	62.3	17.7	26.6	22.4	32.4
1999—2012	150.7	-9.0	74.4	72.5	7.4
1992—2012	10.7	-31.6	94.0	36.3	-37.3
2012—2017	103.9	-2.6	12.4	116.1	104.8
2014—2015	-18.2	-12.6	-14.6	-7.7	16.7

国家	重度下滑	中度下滑	轻度下滑	缓慢增长	快速增长	高速增长
国家	1992—1998 年
哈萨克斯坦	28.6	57.1	0	7.15	7.15	0
乌兹别克斯坦	0	21.4	57.1	14.4	7.1	0
土库曼斯坦	0	0	50	33.3	0	16.7
吉尔吉斯斯坦	0	11.15	33.3	44.4	11.15	0
塔吉克斯坦	20	20	40	0	0	20
国家	1999—2012年
国家	重度下滑	中度下滑	轻度下滑	缓慢增长	快速增长	高速增长
哈萨克斯坦	0	0	0	7.15	7.15	85.7
乌兹别克斯坦	0	21.45	57.1	0	21.45	0
土库曼斯坦	0	0	0	33.3	16.7	50
吉尔吉斯斯坦	0	0	11.1	11.1	11.1	66.7
塔吉克斯坦	0	20	0	20	40	20
国家	2012—2017年
国家	重度下滑	中度下滑	轻度下滑	缓慢增长	快速增长	高速增长
哈萨克斯坦	0	0	7.15	0	7.15	85.7
乌兹别克斯坦	0	7.1	14.3	14.3	28.6	35.7
土库曼斯坦	0	0	33.3	16.7	0	50
吉尔吉斯斯坦	0	0	0	0	22.2	77.8
塔吉克斯坦	0	0	0	0	20	80

1992—2017年基于夜光遥感的中亚社会经济发展时空特征分析

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Socio-Economic Development in Central Asia based on A Series of Nighttime Light Images from 1992 to 2017

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