地球信息科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (4): 743-750.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.200163

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自然和自然贡献情景模型研究综述

岳天祥1,2,*(), 范泽孟1,2,*(), 史文娇1,2, 赵娜1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2020-04-05 修回日期:2020-04-20 出版日期:2020-04-25 发布日期:2020-06-10
  • 通讯作者: 岳天祥,范泽孟 E-mail:yue@lreis.ac.cn;fanzm@lreis.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:岳天祥(1963— ),男,甘肃庆阳人,博士,研究员,主要研究方向为资源环境模型与系统模拟、生态环境信息学。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41930647);国家自然科学基金项目(1590844);国家自然科学基金项目(41421001);国家自然科学基金项目(41971358);中国科学院A类先导专项项目(XDA20030203);资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室自主创新项目(O88RA600YA);生态环境部生物 多样性调查、观测和评估项目(2019 — 2023年)

Models and Scenarios for Nature and Nature's Contribution

YUE Tianxiang1,2,*(), FAN Zemeng1,2,*(), SHI Wenjiao1,2, ZHAO Na1,2   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2020-04-05 Revised:2020-04-20 Online:2020-04-25 Published:2020-06-10
  • Contact: YUE Tianxiang,FAN Zemeng E-mail:yue@lreis.ac.cn;fanzm@lreis.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41930647);National Natural Science Foundation of China(1590844);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41421001);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971358);Strategic Priority Research Program(A) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20030203);Innovation Project of LREIS(O88RA600YA);Biodiversity Investi- gation, Observation and Assessment Program (2019-2023) of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China

摘要:

本文回顾了自然和自然贡献情景模型发展的背景、历史和内容,概括总结了自然和自然贡献情景模型的发展进程以及联合国生物多样性与生态系统服务政府间科学—政策平台(IPBES)情景模型的概念框架,讨论了自然和自然贡献情景模型存在的问题和发展方向。为了在全球层面解决现有综合集成模型存在的问题,根据地球表层建模基本定理和生态环境曲面建模基本定理,提出了具有中国原创特点的自然与自然贡献情景模型概念框架。

关键词: 自然, 自然贡献, 变化驱动力, 未来情景, 建模基本定理

Abstract:

In April 2012, a resolution was adopted for establishing "Intergovernmental science-policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)" as an independent intergovernmental body of United Nations (UN) according to the UN Office of Legal Affairs with the seat of the secretariat located in Bonn of Germany.IPBES has 136 members now and is continuously growing. China has formally joined IPBES after State Council of the People's Republic of China gave its stamp of approval in December of 2012. In order to guide the use of scenario analysis and modelling in all work under IPBES to ensure the policy relevance of its deliverables, 'the methodological assessment report on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services' was firstly started up in early 2014, which was carried out by experts from all regions of the world. Its summary for policy-makers was approved by the fourth session of the Plenary of IPBES in February 2016 and has been launched in August 2016 in France. Nature, nature's contribution to people and driving forces of nature change are core concepts of the methodological assessment report. Nature includes biodiversity and ecosystems as well as earth system. Nature's contribution to people consists of ecosystem services and nature's gifts. Driving forces of nature change was classified into direct driving forces and indirect driving forces. Advanced work on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services is one of deliverables of the work program up to 2030. We review background, history and contents of the scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services, describe the conceptual framework of IPBES scenarios include exploratory scenarios/attribution scenarios, policy-screening scenarios, target-seeking scenarios and retrospective policy evaluation, and discuss existing problems and perspectives for developing the models and scenarios. To find a solution for these existing problems on global level, a conceptual model is proposed for integrating dynamics of nature, changes of nature's contribution to people, and driving forces of the changes in terms of the fundamental theorem for Earth's surface system modeling. In the meanwhile, interactive mechanisms among nature, nature's contribution and driving forces are considered, along with combination of macro-pattern information and micro-process information.

Key words: Nature, Nature's contribution, Driving force of nature change, Scenarios, Fundamental theorem of modelling