地球信息科学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (2): 274-283.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2021.200415

• 疫情建模与仿真 • 上一篇    下一篇

顾及时空对象空间相互作用的疫情风险评估建模与应用

韦原原1,2(), 江南1,*(), 陈云海1, 李响1, 杨振凯1   

  1. 1.信息工程大学地理空间信息学院,郑州 450052
    2.郑州师范学院地理与旅游学院,郑州 450001
  • 收稿日期:2020-07-30 修回日期:2020-10-19 出版日期:2021-02-25 发布日期:2021-04-25
  • 通讯作者: 江南 E-mail:gisworker@vip.163.com;13653802609@163.com
  • 作者简介:韦原原(1991— ),男,河南洛阳人,博士生,主要从事空间信息系统建模与分析方面研究。E-mail: gisworker@vip.163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0502300)

Modeling and Application of Epidemic Risk Assessment Considering Spatial Interaction of Spatial-temporal Objects

WEI Yuanyuan1,2(), JIANG Nan1,*(), CHEN Yunhai1, LI Xiang1, YANG Zhenkai1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geospatial Information, Information Engineering University, Zhengzhou 450052, China
    2. School of Geography and Tourism,Zhengzhou Normal University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
  • Received:2020-07-30 Revised:2020-10-19 Online:2021-02-25 Published:2021-04-25
  • Contact: JIANG Nan E-mail:gisworker@vip.163.com;13653802609@163.com
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFB0502300)

摘要:

新型冠状病毒肺炎(Coronavirus Disease 2019,COVID-19)在全球的传播仍在持续,根据COVID-19在国内早期的扩散特征,从地理学角度出发,构建了一种顾及时空对象空间相互作用机制的疫情风险评估模型,模型在参照时空对象空间相互作用迁移型传导模式的基础上,重点考虑了疫情传播的时空过程、并兼顾空间依赖及空间异质性因素,实现了疫情风险城际传播的关联性、动态性分析。在实证研究阶段,基于该模型对武汉及其主要影响城市在2020年1月上旬到4月上旬的疫情风险及动态演变进行了评估,通过与基于城市对象自身属性计算得到的实时疫情风险指数及其空间分布进行比较,验证了基于时空对象的空间相互作用模型在疫情风险评估方面的有效性。结果表明:① 模型能兼顾疫情传播的空间依赖及空间异质性特征,体现疫情风险的城际传播过程,为疫情传染风险评估及相关空间问题的研究提供了一种新的视角和方法;② 来自源对象的输入性疫情风险与对象间的空间相互作用强度存在显著正相关性,因此在疫情防控中要结合空间相互作用的主要影响因素进行综合决策。

关键词: COVID-19, 时空对象, 空间相互作用, 迁移模型, 空间异质性, 传染病模型, 风险分析

Abstract:

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still spreading all over the world. According to the early diffusion characteristics of covid-19 in China, From the perspective of geography, an epidemic risk assessment model considering spatial interaction of spatial-temporal objects was constructed. which realizes the correlation and dynamic analysis of the inter city transmission of epidemic risk on the basis of referring to the transfer mode of spatial interaction of spatial-temporal objects, and took into account the spatial-temporal process, spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. In the stage of empirical research, the epidemic risk and its dynamic evolution in Wuhan and its surrounding cities from early January 2020 to early April 2020 were evaluated based on this model. Compared with the real-time epidemic risk index and its spatial distribution calculated based on the urban object's own attributes, the effectiveness of the spatial interaction model based on spatial-temporal objects in epidemic risk assessment was verified. The results show that: on the one hand, The model took into account the spatial dependence and heterogeneity of epidemic transmission, and reflected the transmission process between cities of epidemic risk. It provides a new perspective and method for the study of epidemic risk assessment and related spatial problems. On the other hand, there is a significant positive correlation between the input epidemic risk from source objects and the spatial interaction intensity between objects. Therefore, comprehensive decision-making should be made in combination with the main influencing factors of spatial interaction in epidemic prevention and control.

Key words: COVID-19, spatio-temporal object, spatial interaction, migration model, spatial heterogeneity, epidemic model, risk analysis