大气CO2浓度非均匀分布及其对地表升温影响的研究进展与展望

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2021.210041

地球信息科学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (8): 1362-1371.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2021.210041

大气CO₂浓度非均匀分布及其对地表升温影响的研究进展与展望

张帆¹^,³(), 宣鑫², 邓祥征¹^,³^,^*()

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京 100101
2.山东科技大学测绘与空间信息学院,青岛 266590
3.中国科学院大学,北京 100049

收稿日期:2021-01-25 修回日期:2021-02-08 出版日期:2021-08-25 发布日期:2021-10-25
通讯作者: 邓祥征
作者简介:张帆（1989— ）,男,河北张家口人,博士,助理研究员,主要从事环境与生态管理、气候变化应对等领域的研究。E-mail: zhangf.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602500)

Research Progress and Prospect on the Non-Uniform Distribution of Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration and its Influence on Surface Warming

ZHANG Fan¹^,³(), XUAN Xin², DENG Xiangzheng¹^,³^,^*()

1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2. College of Geodesy and Geomatics, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2021-01-25 Revised:2021-02-08 Online:2021-08-25 Published:2021-10-25
Contact: DENG Xiangzheng
Supported by:
National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFA0602500)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在气候变化和全球治理挑战日益严峻的背景下,CO₂排放及代价评估日益受到学术界和决策者的关注。当前全球范围包括联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）评估在内的几乎所有研究都是基于全球平均CO₂浓度来驱动气候模式的,但基于全球CO₂平均分布设定开展模拟影响评估在学术界多有争议。首先,综述了大气CO₂非均匀分布的证据,评述了大气CO₂浓度非均匀分布与地表升温过程的互馈机制。其次,从自然和人为2个维度,梳理了大气CO₂浓度非均匀分布形成的原因,并评估了其对地表升温的影响。最后,评述了当前大气CO₂浓度非均匀分布研究中存在的问题,进一步展望了其发展趋势,为把握全球与区域碳排放现状及气候变化影响提供科学判据。

关键词: CO₂浓度, 非均匀分布, 地表升温, 互馈机制, 地基数据测量, 模式模拟, 卫星遥感

Abstract:

Global climate change is not only the most important environmental problem, but also one of the most complex challenges mankind faces in the 21^st century. In the context of the increasing challenges of climate change and global governance, the assessment of CO₂ emissions and costs has attracted increasing attention from academia and policy makers. At present, almost all global studies, including the assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), use global average CO₂ concentration to drive the climate models. However, there are many controversies on the impact assessment based on the global average distribution of CO₂ in academia. To formulate countermeasures to deal with carbon emissions and reduction and enhance China’s international discourse on dealing with climate change, it is of great importance to explore the mutual feedback mechanism between the inhomogeneity of atmospheric CO₂ concentration and geophysical processes (e.g. surface temperature rise), and explore the impact mechanism of the inhomogeneous distribution of atmospheric CO₂ concentration on global climate change. This paper reviews the research progress of non-uniform distribution of atmospheric CO₂ concentration and its effects on surface warming. Firstly, this paper reviews the evidence of non-uniform distribution of atmospheric CO₂ concentration from three aspects, ground-based measurement, numerical simulation, and remote sensing. It summarizes the advantages of these three methods and analyzes the discovery process of non-uniform distribution of global atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Secondly, this paper explores the mutual feedback between the non-uniform distribution of global atmospheric CO₂ concentration and surface temperature rise. The non-uniform distribution of atmospheric CO₂ concentration directly affects the radiative forcing or indirectly affects the regional warming through affecting the photosynthesis. Regional warming has a direct or indirect impact on the ability of the ocean and vegetation to absorb CO₂, which ultimately affects the non-uniform distribution of global atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Finally, this paper reviews the problems of existing studies on non-uniform distribution of atmospheric CO₂ and discusses the prospect of future development trends. This study provides a scientific basis for understanding the current situation of global/regional carbon emissions and climate change impacts, and further explores the feedback mechanism among atmospheric CO₂ non-uniform distribution, surface temperature rise, and socio-economic system.

Key words: carbon dioxide concentration, non-uniform distribution, surface temperature, mutual feedback mechanism, ground-based measurement, model and simulation, remote sensing

张帆, 宣鑫, 邓祥征. 大气CO₂浓度非均匀分布及其对地表升温影响的研究进展与展望[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2021, 23(8): 1362-1371.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2021.210041

ZHANG Fan, XUAN Xin, DENG Xiangzheng. Research Progress and Prospect on the Non-Uniform Distribution of Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration and its Influence on Surface Warming[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2021, 23(8): 1362-1371.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2021.210041

图/表 4

表1

表2

大气CO2浓度非均匀分布数值模拟研究常用模型/模式

模式/模型名称	模式简介	优势
WRF-GHG模式	由中尺度天气研究与预报模式WRF与植被光合呼吸模型VPRM直接动态耦合的大气-温室气体模式	能直接计算陆地生态系统与大气中之间温室气体的相互交换,考虑大气中的扩散、输送等过程对温室气体的影响,模拟和预报温室气体在时间和空间上的分布和演变^[32,33,34]
区域碳数据同化系统	将集合四维变分数据同化方法(POD-4DVar)融入通用多尺度空气质量(Community Multiscal Air Quality)区域化学输送模型	可以持续、动态描述地表CO₂通量演变并避免信噪比问题,使CO₂通量可以在网格尺度上作为一个整体参与估计^[35]
CESM模式	由一个中央耦合器和大气模型、海洋模型、陆地模型、海冰模型和冰盖模型组成,不同圈层之间采用耦合方式进行交互	开放获取源代码,且采用国际上主流的模块化结构,便于更换或升级分量和开发新的气候模型产品^[36,37,38]
RAMS-CMAQ模式	由区域大气模拟系统RAMS和环境空气质量模型Modoles-3 CMAQ构成	通过VPRM模块,综合考虑了陆地生态系统中植被光合作用和呼吸作用对CO₂通量的影响,能够模拟CO₂迁移和扩散的物理过程^[39,40,41]
区域气候模式REMO	由德国气象局(DWD)的EM (Europa Modell)发展而来,研究区域限定在欧洲和西西伯利亚	拥有“气候模式”和“预报模式” 2种工作模式,能够对天气和次天气特征进行可靠模拟^[42]
碳追踪模型	将TM5(Tracer Model, Version 5)大气传输模型与卡尔曼滤波方法相结合,是由NOAA/ESRL/GMD开发的一种大气反演模型	能够模拟地球表面CO₂吸收和排放随时间的变化,区分自然碳循环和人类活动引起的碳排放变化^[23,43]
改进的区域气候模式RegCM4	将CO₂源和汇视为规定的表面通量并对其进行追踪	具有较高的空间分辨率,可以从人为排放和生物圈-大气交换中检索信号,从而捕捉环境CO₂浓度时空变化^[44,45]

表2

图1

图2

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站点名称	站点类型	纬度/N	经度/E	气候特征	代表区域	据市中心距离
瓦里关(WLG)	全球本底站	36°17′	100°54′	高原大陆性	欧亚大陆腹地	距西宁市150 km
上甸子(SDZ)	区域本底站	40°39′	117°07′	暖温带半湿润季风	京津冀经济圈	距北京市150 km
临安(LAN)	区域本底站	30°18′	119°44′	亚热带季风	长三角经济圈	距杭州市50 km
龙凤山(LFS)	区域本底站	44°44′	127°36′	温带大陆性季风	东北平原区	距哈尔滨市180 km
香格里拉(XGLL)	区域本底站	28°00′	99°44′	高原寒温性湿润	青藏高原横断山区腹地	距昆明市450 km
阿克达拉(AKDL)	区域本地站	47°06′	87°58′	大陆性温带干旱半干旱	北疆地区	距乌鲁木齐市400 km

大气CO₂浓度非均匀分布及其对地表升温影响的研究进展与展望

Research Progress and Prospect on the Non-Uniform Distribution of Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration and its Influence on Surface Warming

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