地球信息科学学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (4): 526-533.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2011.00526

• 地理模型与模拟应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国气温与降水的时空变化趋势分析

范泽孟, 岳天祥, 陈传法, 孙晓芳   

  1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,100101 北京
  • 收稿日期:2010-12-24 修回日期:2011-06-28 出版日期:2011-08-25 发布日期:2011-08-23
  • 作者简介:范泽孟(1977-),男,云南镇雄人,副研,硕导,研究方向为气候变化与生态系统响应、生态模型与系统模拟。E-mail: fanzm@lreis.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(40801150);国家杰出青年科学基金项目(40825003);国家重点基础研究发展计划"973计划"(2009CB421105、2010CB950904)。

Spatial Change Trends of Temperature and Precipitation in China

FAN Zemeng, YUE Tianxiang, CHEN Chuanfa, SUN Xiaofang   

  1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,China
  • Received:2010-12-24 Revised:2011-06-28 Online:2011-08-25 Published:2011-08-23

摘要: 如何对离散分布的气象台站观测数据进行高精度曲面模拟,为生态系统及服务功能时空变化趋势模拟及其综合评估提供高质量、高分辨率的空间气候数据,以满足栅格层次上的生态系统过程模型、生态系统格局模型及生态系统综合评估模型的参数需求,一直是存于生态学界的难点问题。在对全国1964-2007年的752个气象台站长期观测的气温和降水数据进行空间统计分析的基础上,综合考虑DEM数据、经纬度、坡向、坡度等系列地形特征因子对气温和降水空间分布的影响,对全国平均气温和平均降水空间分布趋势模型进行构建,并将其与高精度曲面建模(HASM)方法进行集成,实现研究周期内各时段的年平均气温和年平均降水时空变化趋势模拟。模拟结果表明,在1964-1974(C1)、1975-1985(C2)、1986-1996(C3)和1997-2007(C4)年4个时段内,全国年平均气温总体呈持续上升趋势(平均每10年上升近0.28℃),而全国平均降水总量变化幅度不大,存在显著的区域分布差异及变化特征。论文所建立的模型和方法,可以高效快速地实现将离散点气候观测数据转换成高分辨率的空间栅格数据,从而保证多尺度生态系统时空分析模型的参数精度需求。

关键词: 变化趋势, 平均气温, 平均降水, 空间分布趋势模型, HASM方法, 中国

Abstract: How to attain the high-resolution spatial climate grid data by high accuracy spatial interpolation method according to the climate observed data scattered over China, which can satisfied with the demands of ecological process, structure and landscape simulation model, and ecosystem integrated assessment model, is the focus issue in the field of ecological modeling. To address the above issue, the property feature data from 752 weather stations during the period from 1964 to 2007 are transferred into spatial feature data in terms of coordinate information supplied by every meteorological station meteorological data. SRTM DEM of China on a spatial resolution of 90m×90m is transferred into DEM on a spatial resolution of 1km×1km using the resampling method. The DEM is used as auxiliary data to develop the statistical transfer functions of mean annual temperature and precipitation. The spatial distribution trend model of mean annual temperature and mean precipitation are respectively developed by spatial statistical analysis method combined with the factors of elevation, longitude, latitude, aspect, and slope, which are integrated into the High Accuracy Surface Modeling (HASM) method. Spatial change trends of mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation in China in the four periods of time of C1 (1964-1974), C2 (1975-1985), C3 (1986-1996) and C4 (1997-2007) are analyzed in terms of results from running these models. The simulation results indicate: (1) Mean annual temperature has shown an accelerating increase trend with the rate of speed of 0.28℃ per ten years since 1964, respectively rose 0.1631℃ during the period from C1 to C2, 0.3835℃ from C2 to C3 and 0.7007℃ from C3 to C4. (2) Mean annual precipitation increased by 4.7069mm during the period from C1 to C2, decreased by 2.1335mm from C2 to C3 and continuously decreased by 2.3735mm from C3 to C4. Furthermore, the conclusion can be got that the continuous and high-resolution climate data can be quickly attained from the observed climate data on scattered distribution by the HASM method integrated with the factors of elevation, longitude, latitude, aspect, and slope, and are available used to the parameters of spatially explicit multi-scale ecosystem model.

Key words: mean annual temperature, man annual precipitation, distribution trend model, HASM method, change trends, China