地球信息科学学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (4): 490-496.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2012.00490

• 遥感技术与应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

上海市城市空间扩展时空特征与预测分析

郑凯迪1, 徐新良*2, 张学霞1, 刘洛3   

  1. 1. 北京林业大学 水土保持与荒漠化防治教育部重点试验室, 北京 100083;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室, 北京 100101;
    3. 湖南农业大学资源环境学院, 长沙 410128
  • 收稿日期:2012-03-20 修回日期:2012-06-04 出版日期:2012-08-25 发布日期:2012-08-22
  • 通讯作者: 徐新良(1972-),男,山东青岛人,副研究员,主要从事土地利用/土地覆被变化及其生态环境效应研究。E-mail:xuxl@lreis.ac.cn E-mail:xuxl@lreis.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:郑凯迪(1988-),男,天津市人,硕士生,主要从事土地资源变化研究。E-mail:zhengkaidi123@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家"973"计划项目(2010CB950901);高分辨率对地观测重大专项(E0203/1112/JC03);国家自然科学基金国际合作与交流项目(40921140410)。

Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Future Prediction of Urban Expansion in Shanghai

ZHENG Kaidi1, XU Xinliang*2, ZHANG Xuexia1, Liu Luo3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Soil & Water Conservation and Desertification Combating, Ministry of Education, Beijing Forest University, Beijing 100083, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. College of Resources & Environment, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China
  • Received:2012-03-20 Revised:2012-06-04 Online:2012-08-25 Published:2012-08-22

摘要:

本文以1990、1995、2000、2005年的上海市土地利用遥感监测数据为基本数据源,分析了1990-2005年上海市城市空间扩展 的时空特征。同时利用SLEUTH模型对城市空间扩展进行了模拟和精度验证,并对未来30年上海市城市空间扩展进行了预测。结果显示:1990-2005年,上海市城市空间扩展明显,城市面积净增加81 278hm2,净增长10.14%;在扩展的时间过程上呈现先减缓后加剧的趋势,2000-2005年城市用地扩展最为剧烈,城市面积净增加40 668hm2,净增长5.08%,填海造陆是该时期城市扩展的典型特征。SLEUTH模型可以较好地模拟预测上海市城市空间扩展的时空过程,不同时期模拟与遥感监测结果的Kappa系数最高达到了0.8476;未来30年,上海市城市用地将以年平均增长率1.63%的速度扩展,2040年城市用地面积将达到152 685hm2。城市扩展将占用耕地41 824hm2,年平均占用耕地1200hm2。城市扩展的方式主要是边缘增长,东部的浦东新区沿五洲大道向海方向、南部的徐汇区沿沪闵高架路向南,以及西部的嘉定区和青浦区沿京沪高速两侧向西的地区 均是未来城市扩展的主要方向。

关键词: 土地利用, 城市扩展, 上海, SLEUTH模型

Abstract:

Rapid urbanization often results in intensive land use change especially in the urban area of China. As an important economic center in China, urban expansion in Shanghai is always at a high speed in recent years. Using land use datasets in 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005, derived from interpretation based on Landsat TM/ETM images, this paper firstly analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of urban expansion during 1990-2005, then simulated this process using SLEUTH model and analyzed the simulation precision, and forecasted urban expansion and land use change process in the next 30 years. The results indicated that: (i) the urban expansion is very fast during 1990-2005, the urban land area increased by 81 278 hm2 (10.14%). The temporal process of urban expansion took on a first decrease and then increase trend. The most obvious expansion occurred in 2000-2005, the urban land area increased by 40 668 hm2 (5.08%), and the sea reclamation is the typical characteristic in this time period. (ii) The Lee-Sallee index were more than 0.75 in the calibration process of SLEUTH, and the amount and morphology of simulated urban expansion were more consistent with actual situation in 2005 than in the past. So SLEUTH model could simulate urban growth mode of Shanghai City and obtain high precision result of land use changes, and the Kappa coefficient could be up to 0.8476. (iii) In the next 30 years, Shanghai would expand at an annual average rate of 1.63%, and the city area would be reach 152 685 hm2 in 2040. The urbanization process would occupy 41 824 hm2 cultivated land, and the cultivated land area would decrease at a speed of annual average area of 1200 hm2, but it would not affect the aim of cultivated land protection in the future general land use planning. (iv) The main mode of urban expansion in Shanghai was the edge growth, the direction towards east along Wuzhou Avenue in the Pudong new area, the direction towards south along the Humin elevated road in Xuhui District, and the direction towards west along Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway in Jiading and Qingpu districts, are the main city expansion direction in the future. And (v) from 2010 to 2040, urban expansion in Shanghai will occupy cultivated land 1200hm2 per year, and will occupy cultivated land 41 824 hm2 totally.

Key words: Shanghai, land use, SLEUTH model, urban expansion