地球信息科学学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (5): 746-753.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2014.00746

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1978-2011年间中国区域消费水平的时空演变

李在军1(), 管卫华1,,A;*(), 吴启焰1, 蒲英霞2   

  1. 1. 南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京 210023
    2. 南京大学地理信息科学系,南京 210093
  • 收稿日期:2013-12-03 修回日期:2014-03-24 出版日期:2014-09-10 发布日期:2014-09-04
  • 通讯作者: 管卫华 E-mail:junzailinyi@163.com;guanweihua@njnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:李在军(1989-),男,博士生,研究方向为区域经济与空间结构。E-mail: junzailinyi@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41271128、41329001);江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目

The Temporal and Spatial Trend of China's Regional Consumption Level since the Reform and Opening up

LI Zaijun1(), GUAN Weihua1,*(), WU Qiyan1, PU Yingxia2   

  1. 1. School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
    2. Department of Geography Information Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
  • Received:2013-12-03 Revised:2014-03-24 Online:2014-09-10 Published:2014-09-04
  • Contact: GUAN Weihua E-mail:junzailinyi@163.com;guanweihua@njnu.edu.cn
  • About author:

    *The author: CHEN Nan, E-mail:fjcn99@163.com

摘要:

区域消费水平是经济发展的重要动力。本文以1978-2011年间我国各省区的人均消费品零售额表征区域消费水平,在我国区域消费水平差异测度的基础上,对区域消费水平差异的时间序列值进行突变点检测,进而将我国区域消费水平变化划分为1978-1986年和1986-2011年2个阶段。通过利用传统马尔科夫链及空间马尔科夫链方法,分别构建人均消费水平的非空间和空间马尔科夫转移概率矩阵,对1978-1986年与1986-2011年2个阶段的区域消费水平的时空格局演变特征进行分析。研究结果表明:(1)区域消费水平在2个研究时段内的变化均存在着“俱乐部趋同”现象,无论是低消费水平与高消费水平区域均沿着最初类型稳步演进。(2)区域消费水平变化受到来自邻域消费水平背景的影响,使得其趋同的过程在空间上不独立。(3)区域间消费水平相互作用呈现出显著的东西分异特征,东部地区多为区域自身消费水平与邻域消费水平同时向上转移的状态,西部地区多为向下转移的状态,而中部地区多为平稳分布,邻域消费水平的状态变化较大。

关键词: 区域消费水平, 趋同, 空间马尔科夫链, 时空演变

Abstract:

Regional consumption is an important driving force for the development of economy. The evolution of regional consumption level not only manifests the time sequence variation, but also shows the spatial interaction. While traditional studies consider little of the space-time effect together, this paper characterizes the regional consumption level with the use of per capita consumption retail sales. On the basis of calculating regional consumption level gap, the mutation point of time series values for regional consumption level gap is detected. Furthermore, the change of consumption level in China is divided into two periods of 1978-1986 and 1996-2010. Then, by using the traditional Markov chain and space Markov chain method, we analyzed the characteristics of spatial and temporal evolution pattern for per capita consumption level within the two periods respectively. The results show that: (1) the change of regional consumption level in each study phase shows the phenomenon of “club convergence”. And both the regions with low and high consumption level regions are steadily evolving along with their original types. (2) The variation of regional per capita consumption level is affected by the background of consumption level in adjacent regions, and the convergence process is not spatially independent. Generally, if a region is adjacent to regions with low consumption level, it will suffer from negative influences; if adjacent to regions with high consumption level, it will help increase the number of regions with their consumption level shifting upward and reduce the number of regions with same level transfer. (3) The interactions of regional consumption level between different regions present an obvious east-west differentiation trend. The regions and their neighborhoods with high consumption level that simultaneously shifting upward are mainly distributed in the east of China. The regions and their neighborhoods with consumption level shifting downward are clustered in the west of China. In addition, the central China region indicates a stationary consumption level, while the consumption level of the adjacent regions presents a varied state of convergence.

Key words: regional consumption level, regional convergence, space Markov chain, temporal and spatial change