城市扩张驱动下植被净第一性生产力动态模拟研究——以广东省为例

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2015.00469

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市间相互作用对城市扩张时空演变及其植被碳循环效应具有重要影响。本文将城市相互作用因子引入到元胞自动机（CA）的城市扩张模拟中,使用极限学习机（ELM）来自动获取CA的转换规则,并提出了ELM-CA模型;结合Biome-BGC模型,以广东省为例,对未来城市扩张及其植被净第一性生产力（NPP）效应进行耦合研究。结果表明：ELM-CA模型无需人工确定各变量权重大小,在不同类型变量的参数获取方面具有优势。通过嵌入城市间相互作用,ELM-CA模型能较好地模拟广东省城市用地扩张过程和格局。另外,广东省城市用地扩张对植被NPP具有重要影响,主要表现为城市用地的增加显著地降低植被NPP。按2000-2005年间城市扩张趋势,到2020年,由城市用地扩张导致的植被NPP降低约占广东省植被NPP的1.79%。引导城市合理扩张,对于维持生态系统碳平衡、促进社会经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。

关键词: 空间相互作用, 极限学习机, 元胞自动机, 净第一性生产力

Abstract:

Spatial interactions between multiple cities are important to the temporal and spatial evolution of urban expansion, and even significant to the carbon cycle. In this paper, an ELM-CA model was proposed by introducing extreme learning machine (ELM) into cellular automata (CA) to obtain the CA’s conversion rules. Taking Guangdong Province as an example, the effects of urban expansion on net primary productivity (NPP) were investigated by coupling Biome-BGC with the ELM-CA model. To represent the close interconnections between different cities, their spatial interactions were explicitly embedded in the ELM-CA model. Our results indicated that: the ELM-CA model could simulate the urban expansions in Guangdong Province at a high accuracy. In addition, the urban expansions exhibited crucial impacts on the NPP in Guangdong, which reduced the vegetation NPP evidently. According to the inertial trends of the urban expansion from 2000 to 2005, we found that the urban land development in 2020 may cause a reduction in NPP, which had taken up about 1.79% of the total provincial NPP of Guangdong. In summary, a reasonable guidance on the planning of future urban expansion is critical for the maintenance of carbon balance and climate change.

Key words: spatial interaction, extreme learning machine, cellular automata, net primary productivity

裴凤松, 黎夏, 刘小平, 夏庚瑞. 城市扩张驱动下植被净第一性生产力动态模拟研究——以广东省为例[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2015, 17(4): 469-477.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2015.00469

PEI Fengsong,LI Xia,LIU Xiaoping,XIA Gengrui. Dynamic Simulation of Urban Expansion and Their Effects on Net Primary Productivity: A Scenario Analysis of Guangdong Province in China[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2015, 17(4): 469-477.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2015.00469

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变量类型	变量名称
城市空间变量	离行政中心距离
	离公路距离
	离高速公路距离
	离铁路距离
城市间相互作用	城市相互作用强度
单元自然属性	地形坡度

	2005年			2008年
	模拟城市用地（像元个数）	模拟非城市用地（像元个数）	正确百分比（%）	模拟城市用地（像元个数）	模拟非城市用地（像元个数）	正确百分比（%）
实际城市用地	13 656	4087	77	19112	6203	75
实际非城市用地	4110	688 748	99	2894	681 419	99
Kappa系数	0.76			0.77