山地灾害致贫风险初步分析----以湖北省恩施州为例

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.00307

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国的贫困地区主要分布在山区,山地灾害的多发,易发在某种程度上成为制约贫困地区经济发展的因素之一.目前,山地灾害的研究集中于动力学研究,缺乏风险尤其是灾害致使贫困风险的研究.本文对山地灾害特有灾害与一般地质灾害的概念进行了区分;根据贫困的内涵与可量测性,定义了山地灾害的贫困脆弱性及山地灾害致贫风险;以贫困脆弱性分布和灾害危险性分布,构建区域山地灾害致贫风险评价模型,并基于此模型对少数民族特困地区--湖北省恩施土家族苗族自治州(简称恩施州)进行应用研究.在示例分析中,首先利用确定性系数模型和频率比例法对山地灾害的危险性进行了评价;然后,从暴露性和应对能力2个方面选取了经济,社会及自然指标,以进行脆弱性评价;最后,利用通用灾害风险评价公式对研究区由于山地灾害导致的贫困风险在空间的分布进行评价,得到了研究区的山地灾害致贫风险分布与分级图.

关键词: 贫困, 山地灾害, 风险, 脆弱性

Abstract:

Most of the poverty areas in China are mainly distributed in the mountainous areas, which are also prone to several mountain disasters. These disasters may lead or enhance the poverty to some extent. Current research on mountain disaster mainly focuses on the kinetics whereas pays less attention on the risks, especially on the risk of poverty. The authors distinguished the specific mountain disasters from the common disasters, and summarized the characteristics of mountain disasters, then give out the explanation of poverty vulnerability and poverty risk induced by mountain disasters. The poverty risk model is set up from the perspectives of two aspects, the hazard and the vulnerability, where the hazard is a function of susceptibility, and the vulnerability is consisted of the copping ability and exposure. With this concept, a demonstrative research is carried out for Enshi in Hubei province, which is located in the central China and is a minority mountainous area in severe poverty condition. In this demonstration, the hazard susceptibility is obtained from the landslide historical records and geological environments background analysis. As the vulnerability, the building structure intensity and completeness of infrastructure, and the net income of the farmers were factors of the copping ability, while the density of cultivated land ratio, the poverty population rate and the GDP were factors of the exposure. The final poverty risk map was produced with the upper dual-factor model and was divided into 5 levels for usability. In the end, some suggestions about poverty-reduction and disaster mitigation were introduced by the authors from the perspective of poverty risk, such as the integrate disaster and poverty reduction, and some other management policies were also recommended.

Key words: poverty, mountain disasters, risk, vulnerability

田宏岭, 张建强. 山地灾害致贫风险初步分析----以湖北省恩施州为例[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2016, 18(3): 307-314.

TIAN Hongling,ZHANG Jianqiang. Analyses of Poverty Risk Induced by Mountain Disasters: A Case Study in Enshi, China[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2016, 18(3): 307-314.

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指标名称及权重				数据来源	数据描述
一级指标	权重	二级指标	权重	数据来源	数据描述
地形地貌	0.6571	高程	0.0312	ASTER GDEM	分辨率为30 m×30 m
		坡度	0.4301	ASTER GDEM	由GDEM导出
		坡型	0.1302	ASTER GDEM	由GDEM导出
		沟谷密度	0.0657	ASTER GDEM	由GDEM导出
地质	0.2746	地层岩性	0.0687	1:50万地质图	岩性类型
		断裂带距离	0.2060	1:50万地质图	由地质图断层导出
人类活动	0.0683	道路距离	0.0171	1:10万基础地理图	由道路图层计算
		土地利用	0.0512	Landsat TM	遥感影像提取

指标级别			数据处理说明
一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	数据处理说明
暴露性	生态环境	耕地密度
	脆弱人员	贫困人口比率	贫困户/农村户
	经济能力	社会经济能力	GDP
应对能力	社会应灾能力	基础设施完备性	道路,医院,通讯等加权
	家庭应灾能力	房屋强度	修建年度和结构形式
	应灾资金	应灾资金	农民纯收入

地区	耕地密度	贫困人口比	GDP	基础设施	房屋强度	农民纯收入	脆弱性
巴东县	0.284471	0.2532	0.4793	0.6845	0.453659	0.7698	0.11
建始县	0.284767	0.3297	0.1590	0.7045	0.466610	0.0000	0.14
恩施市	0.289606	0.2804	1.0000	0.6712	0.414210	0.0080	0.30
利川市	0.271713	0.2942	0.6076	0.8275	0.434373	0.7869	0.12
鹤峰县	0.187099	0.3698	0.0000	0.1858	0.673524	1.0000	0.06
宣恩县	0.323984	0.2511	0.0745	0.6164	0.771706	0.7446	0.06
咸丰县	0.326294	0.4463	0.2044	0.0561	0.713088	0.7766	0.13
来凤县	0.378903	0.2963	0.0850	0.5427	0.623655	0.7468	0.08

级别	格网数目	比例/(%)
低	10 415	3.6
中低	52 157	18.2
中	122 501	42.7
中高	87 094	30.3
高	15 005	5.2