山地灾害致贫风险初步分析----以湖北省恩施州为例

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.00307

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国的贫困地区主要分布在山区,山地灾害的多发,易发在某种程度上成为制约贫困地区经济发展的因素之一.目前,山地灾害的研究集中于动力学研究,缺乏风险尤其是灾害致使贫困风险的研究.本文对山地灾害特有灾害与一般地质灾害的概念进行了区分;根据贫困的内涵与可量测性,定义了山地灾害的贫困脆弱性及山地灾害致贫风险;以贫困脆弱性分布和灾害危险性分布,构建区域山地灾害致贫风险评价模型,并基于此模型对少数民族特困地区--湖北省恩施土家族苗族自治州(简称恩施州)进行应用研究.在示例分析中,首先利用确定性系数模型和频率比例法对山地灾害的危险性进行了评价;然后,从暴露性和应对能力2个方面选取了经济,社会及自然指标,以进行脆弱性评价;最后,利用通用灾害风险评价公式对研究区由于山地灾害导致的贫困风险在空间的分布进行评价,得到了研究区的山地灾害致贫风险分布与分级图.

关键词: 贫困, 山地灾害, 风险, 脆弱性

Abstract:

Most of the poverty areas in China are mainly distributed in the mountainous areas, which are also prone to several mountain disasters. These disasters may lead or enhance the poverty to some extent. Current research on mountain disaster mainly focuses on the kinetics whereas pays less attention on the risks, especially on the risk of poverty. The authors distinguished the specific mountain disasters from the common disasters, and summarized the characteristics of mountain disasters, then give out the explanation of poverty vulnerability and poverty risk induced by mountain disasters. The poverty risk model is set up from the perspectives of two aspects, the hazard and the vulnerability, where the hazard is a function of susceptibility, and the vulnerability is consisted of the copping ability and exposure. With this concept, a demonstrative research is carried out for Enshi in Hubei province, which is located in the central China and is a minority mountainous area in severe poverty condition. In this demonstration, the hazard susceptibility is obtained from the landslide historical records and geological environments background analysis. As the vulnerability, the building structure intensity and completeness of infrastructure, and the net income of the farmers were factors of the copping ability, while the density of cultivated land ratio, the poverty population rate and the GDP were factors of the exposure. The final poverty risk map was produced with the upper dual-factor model and was divided into 5 levels for usability. In the end, some suggestions about poverty-reduction and disaster mitigation were introduced by the authors from the perspective of poverty risk, such as the integrate disaster and poverty reduction, and some other management policies were also recommended.

Key words: poverty, mountain disasters, risk, vulnerability

田宏岭, 张建强. 山地灾害致贫风险初步分析----以湖北省恩施州为例[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2016, 18(3): 307-314.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.00307

TIAN Hongling,ZHANG Jianqiang. Analyses of Poverty Risk Induced by Mountain Disasters: A Case Study in Enshi, China[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2016, 18(3): 307-314.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.00307

图/表 10

图1

图2

图3

表1

图4

表2

表3

图5

表4

图6

参考文献 34

[1]	邓伟,程根伟,文安邦.中国山地科学发展构想[J].中国科学院院刊,2008,23(2):156-61. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-3045.2008.02.017
	[ Deng W, Cheng G W, Wen A B.The conception of mountain science development in China[J]. Bulletin of Chinese academy of sciences, 2008,23(2):156-161. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-3045.2008.02.017
[2]	陈国阶. 中国山区发展面临的问题与挑战[J].科技导报,2004(6):55-58.
	[ Chen G J.Problems and chanllenges in the development of Chinese mountain area[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2004,6:55-58. ]
[3]	中共中央,国务院,中国农村扶贫开发纲要(2011-2020年)[Z]. 2011-12-01.
	[ The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the Sate Council. Outline of poverty alleviation and development in rural areas of China (2011-2020)[z].2011-12-01. ]
[4]	唐邦兴,柳素清,刘世建.我国山地灾害及其防治[J].山地研究[J].1996,14(2):103-109.
	[ Tang B X, Liu S Q, Liu S J.Mountain hazards and their prevention in China[J]. Mountain Research, 1996,14(2):103-109. ]
[5]	袁仁茂,王晓东,杨晓燕.山地灾害地貌与水土流失[J].水土保持研究,2001,8(2):96-99.
	[ Yuan R M, Wang X D, Yang X Y.Calamity landform in mountain areas and water and soil loss[J]. Research of soil and water conservation, 2001,8(2):96-99. ]
[6]	丁文广,陈东梅.农村贫困地区的灾害风险管理研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(5):69-73.
	[ Ding W G, Chen D M.Natural disaster risk management in rural poor areas[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2010,24(5):69-73. ]
[7]	姚文广,徐林柱,丁留谦,等. 山地灾害对人类的致命摧毁--关于防御山地灾害工作的思考[J].中国减灾,2002(3):4-6.
	[ Yao W G, Xu L Z, Ding L Q, et al.The deadly distroy to humanity of the mountain hazards-thoughts over the defense for mountain hazards[J]. Disaster Reduction in China, 2002,3:4-6. ]
[8]	张晓. 水旱灾害与中国农村贫困[J].中国农村经济,1999,11:12-18.
	[ Zhang X.Flood, drought and rural poverty in China[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 1999,11:12-18. ]
[9]	明亮. 自然灾害的农村贫困效应--对湖南SH村冰雪灾害的调查研究[J].广东农业科学,2011(3):187-189.
	[ Ming L.The rural poverty effects of natural disasters - research of snow disaster of SH village[J]. Guangdong Agricultural Sciences, 2011,3:187-189. ]
[10]	Van Westen C J, Van Asch T W J, Soeters R. Landslide hazard and risk zonation-why is it still so difficult?[J]. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 2006,65(2):167-184. doi: 10.1007/s10064-005-0023-0
[11]	盛海洋,王付全.我国的山地灾害及其防治[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(1):129-131.
	[ Shen H Y, Wang F Q.Mountain harm in China and study of protection and control[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2007,14(1): 129-131.]
[12]	陈勇,谭燕,茆长宝.山地自然灾害,风险管理与避灾扶贫移民搬迁[J].灾害学,2013,28(2):136-142. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2013.02.027
	[ Chen Y, Tan Y, Mao C B.Mountain hazards, risk management disaster-preventive and povety-alleviating resettlement[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2013,28(2):136-142. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2013.02.027
[13]	钟敦伦,谢洪,韦方强,等.论山地灾害链[J].山地学报,2013,31(3): 314-326. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-2786.2013.03.009
	[ Zhong D L, Xie H, Wei F Q, et al.Discussion on mountain hazards Chain[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2013,31(3):314-326. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-2786.2013.03.009
[14]	Gardner J, Dekens J.Mountain hazards and the resilience of social-ecological systems: lessons learned in India and Canada[J]. Natural Hazards, 2007,41(2):317-316. doi: 10.1007/s11069-006-9038-5
[15]	李小云,张悦,李鹤.地震灾害对农村贫困的影响--基于生计资产体系的评价[J].贵州社会科学,2011,255(3): 81-85. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6924.2011.03.016
	[ Li X Y, Zhan Y, Li H.Influence of earthquake disasters on rural poverty-based on livelihood assets evaluation system[J]. Guizhou Social Sceineces, 2011,255(3):81-85. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6924.2011.03.016
[16]	The World Bank. World development report: development and the environment[R]. Oxford University Press, 1992.
[17]	United Nations Development Programme. Millennium development goals: a compact among nations to end human poverty[R]. New York: Oxford University Press, 2003.
[18]	Alkire S.Choosing dimensions: the capability approach and multidimensional poverty[R]. Chronic Poverty Research Centre, 2007.
[19]	Sen A.Poverty and famines: an essay on entitlement and deprivation[M]. Oxford New York: Clarendon Press Oxford University Press, 1982.
[20]	郭熙保. 关于贫困概念的演进与思考[J].皖西学院学报,2005,21(6):12-7. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-9735.2005.06.004
	[ Guo X B.The evolution and reflections of poverty concept[J]. Journal of Wanxi University, 2005,21(6):12-17. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-9735.2005.06.004
[21]	李鹤,张平宇,程叶青. 脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(2):18-25. doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.02.003
	[ Li H, Zhang P Y, Cheng Y Q.Concepts and assessment methods of vulnerability[J]. Progress in Geography, 2008,27(2):18-25. ] doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.02.003
[22]	宋志立. 贫困脆弱性研究综述[J].经济研究导刊,2013,207(25):184-186. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-291X.2013.25.090
	[ Song Z L.Review of poverty venerability[J]. Economic Research Guide, 2013,207(25):184-186. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-291X.2013.25.090
[23]	黄承伟,王小林,徐丽萍. 贫困脆弱性:概念框架和测量方法[J].农业技术经济,2010(8):4-11.
	[ Huang C W, Wang X L, Xu L P.Poverty vulnerability: conceptual frame and measurement[J]. Journal of Agrotechnical Economics, 2010,8:4-11. ]
[24]	Africa Region Human Development Department of the World Bank. Dynamic risk management and the poor, developing a social protection strategy for Africa[M]. The World Bank, 2000.
[25]	Jalan J, Ravallion M.Transient poverty in post - reform rural China[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics, 1998,26(2):338-357. doi: 10.1006/jcec.1998.1526
[26]	张大维. 集中连片少数民族困难社区的灾害与贫困关联研究--基于渝鄂湘黔交界处149个村的调查[J].内蒙古社会科学(汉文版),2011,32(5):127-132. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-5281.2011.05.026
	[ Zhang D W.The association between disaster and poverty in the minority poverty community of the contiguous area[J]. Inner Mongolia Socal Sciences, 2011,2(5):127-132. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-5281.2011.05.026
[27]	Fell R, Corominas J, Bonnard C, et al.Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land use planning[J]. Engineering Geology, 2008,102(3-4):85-98. doi: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2008.03.022
[28]	刘璐琳. 武陵山区扶贫开发的制约因素与政策建议[J]. 宏观经济管理,2012(6):71-72.
	[ Liu L L.Restriction factors and policy suggestions for poverty alleviation and development in Wulingshan area[J]. Macroeconomic Management, 2012,6:71-72. ]
[29]	符廷銮. 武陵山少数民族地区贫困现状与反贫困对策研究----以恩施土家族苗族自治州为例[J]. 时代经贸,2012,241:63-65.
	[ Fu T L.Poverty situation and anti-poverty countermeasure in minority area of Wulingshan[J]. Economic & Trade Update, 2012,241:63-65. ]
[30]	恩施自治州建州三十周年的回顾与展望[EB/OL]..
	[ Review and prospect of Enshi Autonomous since setting up[EB/OL]. . ]
[31]	许冲,戴福初,姚鑫,等.基于GIS与确定性系数分析方法的汶川地震滑坡易发性评价[J].工程地质学报,2010,18(1):15-26.
	[ Xu C, Dai F C, Yao X, et al.GIS platform and certainty factor analysis method based wenchuan earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility evaluation[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2010,18(1):15-26. ]
[32]	乔建平. 滑坡风险区划理论与实践[M].成都:四川大学出版社,2010.
	[ Qiao J P.Landslide risk zoning theory and practice[M]. Chengdu: Sichuan University Press, 2010. ]
[33]	石莉莉,乔建平.基于GIS和贡献权重迭加方法的区域滑坡灾害易损性评价[J].灾害学,2009,24(3):46-50. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2009.03.009
	[ Shi L L, Qiao J P.Vulnerability evaluation on regional landslides based on gis and contribution weight superposition approach[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2009,24(3):46-50. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2009.03.009
[34]	殷洁,裴志远,陈曦炜,等.基于GIS的武陵山区洪水灾害风险评估[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(24):110-117.
	[ Yin J, Pei Z Y, Chen X W, et al.GIS-based flood disaster risk assessment in Wuling Mountain Region[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2013,29(24):110-117. ]

指标名称及权重				数据来源	数据描述
一级指标	权重	二级指标	权重	数据来源	数据描述
地形地貌	0.6571	高程	0.0312	ASTER GDEM	分辨率为30 m×30 m
		坡度	0.4301	ASTER GDEM	由GDEM导出
		坡型	0.1302	ASTER GDEM	由GDEM导出
		沟谷密度	0.0657	ASTER GDEM	由GDEM导出
地质	0.2746	地层岩性	0.0687	1:50万地质图	岩性类型
		断裂带距离	0.2060	1:50万地质图	由地质图断层导出
人类活动	0.0683	道路距离	0.0171	1:10万基础地理图	由道路图层计算
		土地利用	0.0512	Landsat TM	遥感影像提取

指标级别			数据处理说明
一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	数据处理说明
暴露性	生态环境	耕地密度
	脆弱人员	贫困人口比率	贫困户/农村户
	经济能力	社会经济能力	GDP
应对能力	社会应灾能力	基础设施完备性	道路,医院,通讯等加权
	家庭应灾能力	房屋强度	修建年度和结构形式
	应灾资金	应灾资金	农民纯收入

地区	耕地密度	贫困人口比	GDP	基础设施	房屋强度	农民纯收入	脆弱性
巴东县	0.284471	0.2532	0.4793	0.6845	0.453659	0.7698	0.11
建始县	0.284767	0.3297	0.1590	0.7045	0.466610	0.0000	0.14
恩施市	0.289606	0.2804	1.0000	0.6712	0.414210	0.0080	0.30
利川市	0.271713	0.2942	0.6076	0.8275	0.434373	0.7869	0.12
鹤峰县	0.187099	0.3698	0.0000	0.1858	0.673524	1.0000	0.06
宣恩县	0.323984	0.2511	0.0745	0.6164	0.771706	0.7446	0.06
咸丰县	0.326294	0.4463	0.2044	0.0561	0.713088	0.7766	0.13
来凤县	0.378903	0.2963	0.0850	0.5427	0.623655	0.7468	0.08

级别	格网数目	比例/(%)
低	10 415	3.6
中低	52 157	18.2
中	122 501	42.7
中高	87 094	30.3
高	15 005	5.2