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### 暴雨内涝危险性情景模拟方法研究——以上海中心城区为例

1. 1. 华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海 200241
2. 华东师范大学 地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海 200241
• 收稿日期:2015-07-28 修回日期:2015-08-18 出版日期:2016-04-20 发布日期:2016-04-19
• 通讯作者: 王军 E-mail:luckkevin@126.com;jwang@geo.ecnu.edu.cn
• 作者简介:

作者简介：黄清雨(1991-),男,山东人,硕士生,主要从事灾害应急疏散方法研究。E-mail: luckkevin@126.com

• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(71373084);上海市科委基础研究重点项目(15DZ1207805)

### Research on the Scenario Simulation Method of Rainstorm Waterlogging Hazard: A Case Study in the Central Urban Area of Shanghai

HUANG Qingyu(), DONG Jungang, LI Mengya, WANG Jun*()

1. 1. School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
2. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
• Received:2015-07-28 Revised:2015-08-18 Online:2016-04-20 Published:2016-04-19
• Contact: WANG Jun E-mail:luckkevin@126.com;jwang@geo.ecnu.edu.cn

Abstract:

For the purpose of simulating rainstorm waterlogging scenarios in the urban areas that have specific terrain surface characteristics, a comprehensive methodology derived from the hydrology/hydrodynamic theory and the geographic information system (GIS) is proposed in this paper. Moreover, a modified SCS model is utilized for the runoff producing simulation, while a locality volume equation and a hydrodynamic model are used for runoff converging simulation. Taking the central urban area of Shanghai as an example, rainstorm scenarios with 100-year return period are designed for the simulation. Meanwhile, based on the same runoff producing process, the locality volume equation and hydrodynamic model are used to simulate the waterlogging course respectively. Thereafter, a comparison is made to reveal the distinction of accuracy among the results acquired from these diverse models. The results indicate that: (1) it is easier for the runoff converging calculation to use the locality volume equation, but the results are obviously influenced by the temporal distribution of the rainfall course, especially at the period before the peak, as well as by the intensity, thus this model is more feasible for fast waterlogging simulation if the rainfall pattern is determined in advance. As for the hydrodynamic model, the runoff converging calculation is more complicated, but shows a better performance and higher precision when being used for simulating a longer rainfall process. Furthermore, the results have a closer relationship with the rainfall duration. (2) Specifically, these two models are verified based on the inundation data measured during the typhoon “Matsa”. A comparison between the simulation results and the historical data predicts that, although more or less a deviation is inevitable, the hydrodynamic model performs better in fitting the characteristics of urban rainstorm waterlogging, thus basically it's found more suitable for simulating the waterlogging hazard in the central urban area of Shanghai.