1954-2014年云南省降水变化特征与潜在的旱涝区域响应

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.01077

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文基于云南省1954-2014年32个气象站点逐月降水量资料,采用线性倾向估计法、径向基函数空间插值法、小波分析法、R/S分析法、Z指数法,分析了61年的云南省降水序列、旱涝情态的时间特征和空间格局。结果表明：在此期间除春季外,其余各季节降水量均呈现减少态势,年降水量总体以8.1 mm/10 a的速率减少,并且在未来一段时间内将保持减少趋势。多年平均降水量由云南省南部的西双版纳州向西北部的丽江市-迪庆州一带逐步减少;年降水量存在准2 a、准6 a、准8 a、准18 a、准28 a的周期性特征,且以准28 a为主周期;干旱化趋势增加速率较快（K_L=0.359）,印证了降水减少态势,洪涝化趋势减小速率相对较慢（K_I= -0.071）;旱灾易发地区主要涉及5个州,分别为迪庆州、德宏州、西双版纳州、红河州、楚雄州;洪涝易发地区涉及3州2市,依次为怒江州、大理州、文山州、普洱市及邵通市。

关键词: 降水, 旱涝, 小波分析, Z指数, R/S分析, 云南省

Abstract:

Analyzing the characteristics of spatio-temporal variability of precipitation is very important to prepare against droughts and floods. Based on the monthly rainfall data from 1954 to 2014 collected from 32 meteorological sites in Yunnan province, the spatio-temporal variability of the precipitation and drought-flood regional responses were analyzed using the linear regression, RBF spatial interpolation, wavelet analysis, R/S analysis and Z-index. The results show that the precipitation of 3 seasons, except for the spring, has indicated a fluctuant downward trend, and the annual rainfall tends to decrease at a rate of 8.1 mm/10a in the last 61 years in Yunnan province, moreover, the results of wavelet analysis and Hurst index reveal that the precipitation will maintain a decreasing trend in the future. The average annual rainfall decreases gradually from Xishuangbanna to Lijiang-Diqing. Furthermore, the historical precipitation has a primarily downward trend, while secondly an increasing trend in partial areas. Interestingly, the spatial distribution of the decreasing trend has shown a characteristic of symmetry, but the spatial distribution of the increasing trend seems randomly scattered. The periodic oscillation of the annual rainfall is concentrated in the expectant of 2 years, 6 years, 8 years, 18 years and 28 years, and especially in expectant 28 years it has the strongest energy. The rate of drought trend (KL=0.359) is faster than that of flood trend (KI= -0.071), and the downward trend of the annual precipitation can also explain this phenomenon There are 5 sub-prefectures that the droughts appear more often than the other states in Yunnan province, and which are Diqing, Dehong, Xishuangbanna, Honghe and Chuxiong. In addition, there are 3 sub-prefectures and 2 cities where floods appear frequently, which are Nujiang, Dali, Wenshan, Puer and Shaotong.

Key words: precipitation, drought-flood, wavelet analysis, Z-Index, R/S analysis, Yunnan province

刘佳旭, 李丽娟, 李九一, 王志勇, 陈素景, 张凯. 1954-2014年云南省降水变化特征与潜在的旱涝区域响应[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2016, 18(8): 1077-1086.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.01077

LIU Jiaxu,LI Lijuan,LI Jiuyi,WANG Zhiyong,CHEN Sujing,ZHANG Kai. Characteristics of Precipitation Variation and Potential Drought-Flood Regional Responses in Yunnan Province From 1954 to 2014[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2016, 18(8): 1077-1086.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.01077

图/表 9

图1

表1

图2

图3

图4

图5

表2

图6

图7

参考文献 34

[1]	秦大河,Thomas Stocker.IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.01.001
	[ Qin D H, Thomas Stocker.Highlights of the IPCC working group I fifth assessment report[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones DE Mutatione Climatis, 2014,10(1):1-6. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.01.001
[2]	Zheng P N, Li Z Q, Bai Z P, et al.Influence of climate change to drought and flood[J]. Disaster Advances, 2012,5(4):1331-1334.
[3]	Houghton R A, Skole D L, Nobre C A, et al.Annual fluxes or carbon from deforestation and regrowth in the Brazilian Amazon[J]. Nature, 2000,403(6767):301-304. doi: 10.1038/35002062 pmid: 10659847
[4]	Dobson A P, Bradshaw A D, Baker A J M. Hopes for the future: Restoration ecology and conservation biology[J]. Science, 1997,277(5325):515-522. doi: 10.1126/science.277.5325.515
[5]	刘佳旭,李丽娟,李九一,等.滇池流域降水时空变异特征分析[J].地球信息科学学报,2015,17(4):451-461. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2015.00451
	[ Liu J X, Li L J, Li J Y, et al.An analysis on the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation in Dianchi basin[J]. Journal of Geo-Information Science, 2015,17(4):451-461. ] doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2015.00451
[6]	李丽娟,王娟,李海滨.无定河流域降雨量空间变异性研究[J].地理研究,2002,21(4):434-440. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0585.2002.04.005
	[ Li L J, Wang J, Li H B.Analysis of the spatial variability of rainfall in Wuding river basin[J]. Geographical Research, 2002,21(4):434-440. ] doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0585.2002.04.005
[7]	王璐璐,延军平,王鹏涛,等.海河流域不同等级降水时空变化特征及其影响[J].资源科学,2015,37(4):690-699.
	[ Wang L L, Yan J P, Wang P T, et al.Spatial-temporal variation in precipitation for different categories and impacts in the Haihe river basin[J]. Resources Science,2015,37(4):690-699. ]
[8]	何艳虎,陈晓宏,林凯荣,等.东江流域近50年旱涝时空演变特征[J].地理科学,2014,34(11):1391-1398.
	[ He Y H, Chen X H, Lin K R, et al.Characteristic of the spatio-temporal distribution of droughts and floods in the Dongjiang basin in recent 50 years[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014,34(11):1391-1398. ]
[9]	冯新灵,罗隆诚,冯自立.中国近50年降水变化趋势及突变的Hurst指数试验[J].干旱区地理,2009,32(6):859-866.
	[ Feng X L, Luo L C, Feng Z L. Hurst index experiment on precipitation change trend and mutation of China in the near 50 years [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2009,32(6):859-866. ]
[10]	缪启龙,肖伟.云南省40年降水的基本特征[J].气象科学,1995(3):293-299.
	[ Liao Q L, Xiao W.The basic precipitation features of Yunnan province in recent 40 years[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 1995,3:293-299. ]
[11]	尤卫红,段旭,杞明辉.连续小波变换在云南近百年气温和降水变化分析中的应用[J].高原气象,1999,18(1):48-55. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534.1999.01.006
	[ You W H, Duan X, Qi M H.Continuous wavelet transforms and their applications to surface air temperature and yearly precipitation variations in Yunnan during last one hundred years[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 1999,18(1):48-55. ] doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534.1999.01.006
[12]	郑建萌,任菊章,张万诚.云南近百年来温度雨量的变化特征分析[J].灾害学,2010,25(3):24-31. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2010.03.006
	[ Zheng J M, Ren J Z, Zhang W C.Analysis on variation characteristics of temperature and rainfall in Yunnan in the last 100 years[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2010,25(3):24-31. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2010.03.006
[13]	刘丽,陶云.云南省汛期极端强降水事件的气候特征[J].干旱气象,2012,30(1):15-20. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-7639.2012.01.004
	[ Liu L, Tao Y.Climatic characteristics of extremely heavy precipitation events in flood season in Yunnan province[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2012,30(1):15-20. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-7639.2012.01.004
[14]	杨晓静,左德鹏,徐宗学.基于标准化降水指数的云南省近55年旱涝演变特征[J].资源科学,2014,36(3):473-480.
	[ Yang X J, Zuo D P, Xu Z X.Characteristics of droughts and floods analyzed using the standardized precipitation index in Yunnan province during the past 55 years[J]. Resources Science, 2014,36(3):473-480. ]
[15]	王劲峰,李连发,葛咏,等.地理信息空间分析的理论体系探讨[J].地理学报,2000,55(1):92-103. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2000.01.011
	[ Wang J F, Li L F, Ge Y, et al.A theoretic framework for spatial analysis[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2000,55(1):92-103. ] doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2000.01.011
[16]	Chang K.Introduction to geographic information systems[M]. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2010.
[17]	魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
	[ Wei F Y.Statistical diagnosis and prediction technology of modern climate[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press,2007. ]
[18]	姚治君,姜丽光,吴珊珊,等.1956-2011年金沙江下游梯级水电开发区降水变化特征分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2014,42(4):289-296. doi: 10.3876/j.issn.10001980.2014.04.002
	[ Yao Z J, Jiang L G, Wu S S, et al.Analysis of characteristics of precipitation variation in cascade hydropower development zone in lower reaches of Jinsha River during period from 1956 to 2011[J]. Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences), 2014,42(4):289-296. ] doi: 10.3876/j.issn.10001980.2014.04.002
[19]	Percival D B, Walden A T.Wavelet methods for time series analysis[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006.
[20]	邵晓梅,许月卿,严昌荣.黄河流域降水序列变化的小波分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2006,42(4):503-509.
	[ Shao X M, Xu Y Q, Yan C R.Wavelet analysis of rainfall variation in the Yellow river basin[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2006,42(4):503-509. ]
[21]	李淼,夏军,陈社明,等.北京地区近300年降水变化的小波分析[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(6):1001-1011. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1146.2006.01085
	[ Li M, Xia J, Chen S M, et al.Wavelet analysis on annual precipitation around 300 years in Beijing area[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2011,26(6):1001-1011. ] doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1146.2006.01085
[22]	Torrence C,Compo G P.A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1998,79(1):61-78. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1998)0792.0.CO;2
[23]	吴洪宝,吴蕾.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
	[ Wu H B, Wu L.Diagnosis and prediction method of climate change rate[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2005. ]
[24]	Hurst H E.Long-term storage of reservoirs[J].Trans Am Soc Civ Eng,1951,116:772-785.
[25]	Mandelbrot B B, Wallis J R.Some long-run properties of geophysical records[J]. Water Resources Res.,1969,5(2):321-340. doi: 10.1029/WR005i002p00321
[26]	Mandelbrot B B, Wallis J R.Robustness of the rescaled range R/S in the measurement of noncyclic long-run statistical dependence[J]. Water Resources Res.,1969,5(5):967-988. doi: 10.1029/WR005i005p00967
[27]	Demetris Koutsoyiannis.Climate change, the Hurst phenomenon, and hydrological statistics[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2003,48(1):3-24. doi: 10.1623/hysj.48.1.3.43481
[28]	陈彦光. 基于Matlab 的地理数据分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2012.
	[ Chen Y G.Geographic data analysis based on Matlab [M]. Beijing: Higher Education Press,2012. ]
[29]	江田汉,邓莲堂.Hurst指数估计中存在的若干问题——以在气候变化研究中的应用为例[J].地理科学,2004,24(2):177-182. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2004.02.008
	[ Jiang H T, Deng L T.Some problems in estimating a Hurst exponent — A case study of applicatings to climatic change[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2004,24(2):177-182. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0690.2004.02.008
[30]	Kife G W.Frequency and Risk Analysis in Hydrology. Colorado: Water Resources Publication, 1978.
[31]	鞠笑生,杨贤为,陈丽娟,等.我国单站旱涝指标确定和区域旱涝级别划分的研究[J].应用气象学报,1997,8(1):27-34. doi: 10.1007/s00376-997-0061-6
	[ Ju X S, Yang X W, Chen L J, et al.Research on determination of station indexes and division of regional flood/drought grades in China[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,1997,8(1):27-34. ] doi: 10.1007/s00376-997-0061-6
[32]	盛承禹,陆渝蓉,汤克靖,等.中国气候总论[M].北京:科学出版社,1986.
	[ Sheng C Y, Lu Y R, Tang K J, et al.China's climate statement [M]. Beijing: Science Press,1986. ]
[33]	王文圣,丁晶,李跃清.水文小波分析[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2005.
	[ Wang W S, Ding J, Li Y Q.Wavelet analysis on hydrology [M]. Beijing: Chemical Industry Press, 2005. ]
[34]	De Jongh I L M, Verhoest N E C, De Troch FP. Analysis of a 105-year time series of precipitation observed at Uccle, Belgium[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2006,26(14):2023-2039. doi: 10.1002/joc.1352

单站等级指标			区域等级指标
Z指数	等级	类型	指标	等级	类型
Z>1.645	1	重涝	I>50	1	大涝
1.037<Z≤1.654	2	大涝	35<I≤50	2	涝
0.842<Z≤1.037	3	偏涝	3<(I-L)≤35	3	偏涝
-0.842<Z≤0.842	4	正常	\|I-L\|≤3	4	正常
-1.037<Z≤-0.842	5	偏旱	3<(L-I)≤35	5	偏旱
-1.654<Z≤-1.037	6	大旱	35<L≤50	6	旱
Z≤-1.654	7	重旱	L>50	7	大旱

序号	站点	H	R²	历史趋势	未来趋势
1	德钦	0.74	0.98	减	减
2	贡山	0.78	0.98	增	增
3	玉溪	0.61	0.88	减	减
4	中甸	0.66	0.96	减	减
5	沾益	0.63	0.95	减	减
6	广南	0.67	0.97	减	减
7	文山州	0.66	0.95	减	减
8	屏边	0.59	0.96	增	增
9	澜沧	0.64	0.98	减	减
10	蒙自	0.55	0.89	减	减
11	江城	0.62	0.94	减	减
12	元江	0.58	0.88	增	增
13	勐腊	0.47	0.80	增	减
14	思茅	0.53	0.88	减	减
15	景洪	0.89	0.96	减	减
16	临沧	0.62	0.94	减	减
17	景东	0.62	0.87	减	减
18	孟定	0.87	0.94	减	减
19	泸西	0.71	0.83	减	减
20	瑞丽	0.56	0.93	减	减
21	维西	0.53	0.90	减	减
22	楚雄	0.70	0.91	增	增
23	昆明	0.63	0.95	减	减
24	元谋	0.56	0.95	减	减
25	大理	0.55	0.94	减	减
26	保山	0.57	0.97	增	增
27	泸水	0.74	0.90	减	减
28	昭通	0.72	0.89	减	减
29	丽江	0.61	0.95	增	增
30	华坪	0.51	0.92	减	减
31	腾冲	0.84	0.91	增	增
32	会泽	0.78	0.90	减	减
全省	春季	0.72	0.94	增	增
	夏季	0.76	0.97	减	减
	秋季	0.72	0.95	减	减
	冬季	0.42	0.85	减	增
	雨季	0.62	0.97	减	减
	年值	0.70	0.91	减	减