地球信息科学学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (12): 1615-1623.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.01615
李媛媛1,2(), 徐成东2,*(
), 肖革新3, 罗广祥1
收稿日期:
2016-07-30
修回日期:
2016-10-15
出版日期:
2016-12-27
发布日期:
2016-12-20
通讯作者:
徐成东
E-mail:lyy@lreis.ac.cn;xucd@lreis.ac.cn
作者简介:
作者简介:李媛媛(1990-),女,山西人,硕士生,研究方向为空间分析。E-mail:
基金资助:
LI Yuanyuan1,2(), XU Chengdong2,*(
), XIAO Gexin3, LUO Guangxiang1
Received:
2016-07-30
Revised:
2016-10-15
Online:
2016-12-27
Published:
2016-12-20
Contact:
XU Chengdong
E-mail:lyy@lreis.ac.cn;xucd@lreis.ac.cn
摘要:
细菌性痢疾是常见疾病,也是备受关注的公共健康问题。近年来,京津唐地区的细菌性痢疾发病率相对较高。本文首先分析了2012年京津唐地区细菌性痢疾的季节性和人群特征;其次,使用热点分析模型,探索了京津唐地区细菌性痢疾发病率的时空聚集性;最后,运用地理探测器模型研究了细菌性痢疾的发生和社会经济因素之间的量化关系。结果表明:① 细菌性痢疾发病的峰值时间是8月;发病率最高的年龄段是0-9岁,其次是80岁以上;农民群体发病率最高,其次是散居儿童。② 京津唐地区细菌性痢疾在空间和时间上都存在聚集性。空间上,细菌性痢疾发病率的高聚集区主要分布于北京市的房山区及门头沟区和天津市的滨海新区,低聚集区主要分布于唐山市的滦县,时间上,细菌性痢疾发病率的高聚集区在12个月均有发生,低聚集区主要发生在1-4月以及6月。③ 影响细菌性痢疾发病率空间分布的主要社会经济因素为农村人口占总人口的比例、人口密度和各区县的人均GDP,它们的解释力分别为61%,37%和20%,并且发现它们的交互作用都大于独自影响的作用。本研究通过对京津唐地区细菌性痢疾发病情况的人群特征、时空特征以及影响因素的分析,为本地区细菌性痢疾的预防和控制提供理论依据。
李媛媛, 徐成东, 肖革新, 罗广祥. 京津唐地区细菌性痢疾社会经济影响时空分析[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2016, 18(12): 1615-1623.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.01615
LI Yuanyuan,XU Chengdong,XIAO Gexin,LUO Guangxiang. Spatial-temporal Analysis of Social-economic Factors of Bacillary Dysentery inBeijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2016, 18(12): 1615-1623.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.01615
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