地球信息科学学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (12): 1645-1652.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2016.01645

• 地理空间分析综合应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

利用贝叶斯时空模型分析山东省手足口病时空变化及影响因素

吴北平2(), 杨典1,2, 王劲峰1,*(), 徐成东1, 李俊明3, 任周鹏1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国地质大学信息工程学院,武汉 430070
    3. 中国科学研究院测量与地球物理研究所,武汉 430077
  • 收稿日期:2015-12-21 修回日期:2016-02-02 出版日期:2016-12-27 发布日期:2016-12-20
  • 通讯作者: 王劲峰 E-mail:bpwuhan@gmail.com;wangjf@lreis.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:吴北平(1965-),男,教授,主要从事大地测量学研究。E-mail:bpwuhan@gmail.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家“973”计划项目“气候变化对人类健康的影响与适应机制/气候—健康脆弱人群识别和风险区划”(2012CB955503)

Space-time Variability and Determinants of Hand, Foot and Mouth in Shandong Province: A Bayesian Spatio-temporal Modeling Approach

WU Beiping2(), YANG Dian1,2, WANG Jinfeng1,*(), XU Chengdong1, LI Junming1,3, REN Zhoupeng1   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2. China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430070, China
    3. Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China
  • Received:2015-12-21 Revised:2016-02-02 Online:2016-12-27 Published:2016-12-20
  • Contact: WANG Jinfeng E-mail:bpwuhan@gmail.com;wangjf@lreis.ac.cn

摘要:

手足口病是一种常见的传染病,多见于5岁以下儿童。近年来,中国手足口病发病人数逐年上升,疾病疫情也越来越受到公共卫生部门与社会大众的关注。虽然已有不少手足口病相关的研究,但对其时空变化及影响因素驱动效应的研究仍然较少。本文采用贝叶斯时空模型,对2008年山东省手足口病高发时间段(5-8月)的发病时空演变特征进行系统分析,并探究影响手足口病发病风险的气象因素。结果表明:① 空间上不同区县的手足口病发病风险存在一定差异,且区县间的发病风险随时间变化趋势也各不相同;② 5月和6月手足口病发病风险明显高于整个研究阶段(5-8月)平均发病风险;③ 对手足口病发病风险影响较大的气象因素依次是:周平均温度、平均风速和平均气压。本文针对山东省手足口病时空演化特征及气象影响因素的研究,能为高发时间段内手足口病的区域化防控提供科学依据。

关键词: 手足口病, 贝叶斯时空模型, 相对风险, 山东省

Abstract:

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease, particularly for the 5 years aged and younger children. In recent years, there is a substantial increase in HFMD cases in China, and the outbreak of this disease has attracted the public and health authorities. Although many studies focus on the variation pattern of HFMD, only a few explored thoroughly on its variability at the space-time dimension and its determinants. Here we used a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to analyze the county-level data of HFMD in Shandong Province from May to August in 2008. The study cases of human disease were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Meteorological data were collected from the publicly available Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System (http://cdc.cma.gov.cn/home.do). Our findings suggest that: (1) the hotspot region of HFMD covers counties located in Weihai, Yantai, Weifang, Dongying, Jining and Dezhou prefecture-level cities. The risk of getting HFMD in counties that located in Heze, Jining, Zaozhuang, Dongying, Weifang and Qingdao prefecture-level cities decreased faster than the overall trend. (2) The weekly relative risk of HFMD from May to June is higher than other time periods. (3) In the period of May-August, the average air temperature and average air pressure were negatively associated with the relative risk of HFMD, while a positive relationship between the average wind velocity and the relative risk of HFMD was found in our investigating period at the weekly temporal resolution. We only focus on the spatio-temporal variability and determinants of HFMD during epidemic periods that have high risks, therefore our results were not consistent with the previous studies that use an annual time series data. The results is very meaningful for the government departments to make an effective policy so that the health program could control and reduce the relative risk of HFMD in the regional scale during the high risk period within Shandong Province.

Key words: Hand, foot,and mouth disease, Bayesian spatio-temporal model, relative risk, Shandong Province