小流域山洪灾害危险性分析之降雨指标选取的初步研究

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.00425

地球信息科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (3): 425-435.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.00425

• 遥感科学与应用技术 • 上一篇

小流域山洪灾害危险性分析之降雨指标选取的初步研究

李华威^1,³(), 万庆^1,^2,^3,^*()

1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京 100101
2. 江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京 210023
3. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049

收稿日期:2016-06-13 修回日期:2016-08-26 出版日期:2017-03-20 发布日期:2017-03-20
通讯作者: 万庆 E-mail:lihw@lreis.ac.cn;wanq@lreis.ac.cn
作者简介:
作者简介：李华威（1984-）,男,硕士生,研究方向为山洪灾害风险分析。E-mail:lihw@lreis.ac.cn
基金资助:
资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室自主创新项目“重大地表灾害动力学过程研究”（O88RAA02YA）

Study on Rainfall Index Selection for Hazard Analysis of Mountain Torrents Disaster of Small Watersheds

LI Huawei^1,³(), WAN Qing^1,^2,^3,^*()

1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2016-06-13 Revised:2016-08-26 Online:2017-03-20 Published:2017-03-20
Contact: WAN Qing E-mail:lihw@lreis.ac.cn;wanq@lreis.ac.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

降雨是诱发山洪灾害的直接动力和激发条件,是山洪灾害危险性分析中不可或缺的重要指标。对于不同的研究区,不同频次和历时的降雨对山洪灾害的影响不同,危险性分析所选取的降雨指标也可能不同。本文基于1:5万小流域数据、历史山洪灾害空间分布数据和暴雨图集资料,以江西省婺源县小流域为例,采用相关分析法对初步选取的24个降雨指标进行相关性分析,筛选出相关性不强的降雨指标;利用GIS技术和基于局部Getis-Ord Gi*算法的优化热点分析工具对历史山洪灾害点进行空间聚类分析,获得研究区每个小流域山洪灾害危险度的估值,该值能够较好地反映小流域山洪灾害危险性的空间分布;通过地理探测器模型中的因子探测器和交互探测器对已筛选出的降雨指标和小流域山洪灾害危险度进行综合探测分析,从而获取对该研究区小流域山洪灾害危险性影响较大的降雨指标,即100年一遇最大6 h降雨和100年一遇最大24 h降雨。本文研究对小流域山洪灾害危险性分析降雨指标的定量选取具有参考和指导意义。

关键词: GIS, 降雨指标, 相关性分析, 空间聚类, 地理探测器

Abstract:

Mountain torrents are one of the most dangerous weather-related natural disasters in the world. As the direct driving force and inducing factor of mountain torrent disasters, rainfall can be used as an indispensable index in the hazard analysis of flash flood. In different study areas, the rainfall with different return periods and durations may affect mountain torrent disasters differently and would be therefore selected disparately for the hazard analysis. However, there is little quantitative research on the principles of rainfall index selection in the previous literatures. Based on the small watershed map (1:50,000 scale), the rainstorm atlas and the spatial distribution of mountain torrent disasters, this paper focused on the small watersheds in Wuyuan County in Jangxi Province and used GIS (Geographic Information System), Correlational Analysis, Spatial Cluster and Geographical Detector to obtain the rainfall indices which had great impact on the mountain torrent disasters of the small watersheds. The selected rainfall indices will take part in the hazard analysis of mountain torrent disasters in the study area. The conclusion is drawn as follows: (1) Seven uncorrelated rainfall indices have been obtained from the original 24 rainfall indices by the correlational analysis method. This means that in order to avoid the information overlap, we need to analyze the correlation between pairs of the rainfall indices before the hazard analysis of mountain torrent disaster. (2) By using the Optimized Hot Spot Analysis tool based on Local Getis-Ord Gi* Algorithm to get the estimated hazard values of the mountain torrent disasters of small watersheds, the calculation results are in line with the spatial distribution of mountain torrent disasters in this study area. (3)It’s better to introduce geographical detector to quantify the relevance between rainfall indices and mountain torrent disasters of small watersheds. Through the comprehensive analysis, the final rainfall factors, which cause mountain torrent disasters of the small watersheds with a great probability, will be derived and will participate in the hazard analysis of flash flood. The finally selected rainfall factors of small watersheds in Wuyuan County are the maximum rainfall with 100-year return period and 6-hour duration and the maximum rainfall with 100-year return period and 24-hour duration. The technical method in this paper possesses an important reference value and guidance to the quantitative selection of rainfall indices in the hazard analysis of flash flood of small watersheds.

Key words: GIS, rainfall index, correlational analysis, spatial cluster, geographical detector

李华威, 万庆. 小流域山洪灾害危险性分析之降雨指标选取的初步研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2017, 19(3): 425-435.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.00425

LI Huawei,WAN Qing. Study on Rainfall Index Selection for Hazard Analysis of Mountain Torrents Disaster of Small Watersheds[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017, 19(3): 425-435.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.00425

图/表 10

图1

表1

表2

图2

图3

图4

表3

图5

表4

初步筛选降雨指标的探测结果"

历时	编号	指标/mm	$P D, H$	排序（从大到小）	P
10 min	S13	10年一遇最大10 min降雨量	0.1676	4	0.00
10 min	S14	20年一遇最大10 min降雨量	0.1008	6	0.00
1 h	S26	100年一遇最大1 h降雨量	0.0414	7	0.08
6 h	S34	20年一遇最大6 h降雨量	0.4276	1	0.00
6 h	S36	100年一遇最大6 h降雨量	0.3923	2	0.00
24 h	S41	年均最大24 h降雨量	0.2546	3	0.00
24 h	S46	100年一遇最大24 h降雨量	0.1570	5	0.00

表4

表5

4种降雨指标之间的交互作用"

交互指标（C）	解释力（ $P C, H$ ）	结果	影响模式
10年一遇最大10 min降雨 $?$ 20年一遇最大6 h降雨	0.4820	$max (P S 13, H, P S 34, H) < P C, H < P S 13, H + P S 34, H$	双线性增强
10年一遇最大10 min降雨 $?$ 100年一遇最大6 h降雨	0.4808	$max (P S 13, H, P S 36, H) < P C, H < P S 13, H + P S 36, H$	双线性增强
10年一遇最大10 min降雨 $?$ 100年一遇最大24 h降雨	0.5281	$P C, H > P S 13, H + P S 46, H$	非线性增强
20年一遇最大6 h降雨 $?$ 100年一遇最大6 h降雨	0.6430	$max (P S 34, H, P S 36, H) < P C, H < P S 34, H + P S 36, H$	双线性增强
20年一遇最大6 h降雨 $?$ 100年一遇最大24 h降雨	0.6660	$P C, H > P S 34, H + P S 46, H$	非线性增强
100年一遇最大6 h降雨 $?$ 100年一遇最大24 h降雨	0.7211	$P C, H > P S 36, H + P S 46, H$	非线性增强

表5

参考文献 34

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数据类型	格式	空间坐标系	来源
江西省暴雨图集	SHAPEFILE	GCS_China_Geodetic_Coordinate_System_2000	全国山洪灾害调查评价数据
DEM（90 m）数据	TIF	GCS_WGS_1984	SRTM
1:5万小流域数据	SHAPEFILE	GCS_WGS_1984	全国山洪灾害调查评价数据
1955-2014年婺源县历史山洪灾害数据	SHAPEFILE	Beijing_1954_3_Degree_GK_CM_117E	全国山洪灾害调查评价数据

历时	编号	指标/mm
10 min	S11	年均最大10 min降雨量
	S12	5年一遇最大10 min降雨量
	S13	10年一遇最大10 min降雨量
	S14	20年一遇最大10 min降雨量
	S15	50年一遇最大10 min降雨量
	S16	100年一遇最大10 min降雨量
1 h	S21	年均最大1 h降雨量
	S22	5年一遇最大1 h降雨量
	S23	10年一遇最大1 h降雨量
	S24	20年一遇最大1 h降雨量
	S25	50年一遇最大1 h降雨量
	S26	100年一遇最大1 h降雨量
6 h	S31	年均最大6 h降雨量
	S32	5年一遇最大6 h降雨量
	S33	10年一遇最大6 h降雨量
	S34	20年一遇最大6 h降雨量
	S35	50年一遇最大6 h降雨量
	S36	100年一遇最大6 h降雨量
24 h	S41	年均最大24 h降雨量
	S42	5年一遇最大24 h降雨量
	S43	10年一遇最大24 h降雨量
	S44	20年一遇最大24 h降雨量
	S45	50年一遇最大24 h降雨量
	S46	100年一遇最大24 h降雨量

小流域山洪灾害危险性分析之降雨指标选取的初步研究

Study on Rainfall Index Selection for Hazard Analysis of Mountain Torrents Disaster of Small Watersheds

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