北京城市增长边界预测

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.00486

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了遏制北京”摊大饼”式的城市发展模式,促进土地资源的集约、高效利用,引导国土空间合理布局,划定北京城市增长边界成为重要举措。本研究从城市内生发展动力角度,将遗传神经网络嵌入CA模型,建立北京城市增长边界预测模型,选定了自然、人口经济、区位、邻域、土地利用类型和政策规划6类因素共18个影响因子,预测北京市城市增长弹性边界。同时,从土地自身生态承载能力角度,用建设用地适宜性评价方法,选定了地形、地貌、公园水域、土地利用现状、自然保护区、城市用地距离为影响因子,划定北京市城市增长刚性边界。结果表明,利用该模型预测北京市2025年城市增长边界,总的面积匹配值为96%,模型精度较高;2025年北京市弹性增长边界总面积为1738.98 km²,刚性增长边界总面积为3297.01 km²。基于GANN-CA模型的城市增长边界划定方法对确定城市未来扩张方向有指导作用,可为城市规划和发展政策的制定提供依据。

关键词: UGB, GANN-CA模型, 建设用地适宜性, 北京

Abstract:

Urban growth boundary (UGB) is an effective tool to control urban sprawl. China has carried out the UGB delineation for 14 cities since 2014. UGB includes rigid boundary and elastic boundary. The rigid boundary is an external constraint line and the elastic boundary is the developing line of the interior. In this study, from the angle of the urban endogenous development motivation, we selected 6 types of influence factors such as nature, population economy, location, neighborhood, land use type and policy planning, totally 18 factors. We tried to use genetic algorithms, CA and BP neural network to establish the UGB model to define Beijing elastic boundary. From the angle of ecological carrying capacity of land, we selected terrain, topography, parks and water, land use status, urban land distance and nature reserves as the influence factors and we tried to use construction land suitability evaluation method to define Beijing rigid boundary. The results show that by using our urban growth boundary model to predict Beijing elastic urban growth boundary, the percent area match was 96%, kappa value is 0.812, the UGB Model accuracy is good and the prediction area of Beijing elastic UGB is 1738.98 square kilometers. Through the suitability evaluation, the rigid boundary area is 3297.01 square kilometers.

Key words: Key Words: UGB, GANN-CA model, the suitability of construction land, Beijing

胡业翠, 付玲, 李琦. 北京城市增长边界预测[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2017, 19(4): 486-492.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.00486

HU Yecui,FU Ling,LI Qi. The Prediction of Beijing Urban Growth Boundary[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017, 19(4): 486-492.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.00486

图/表 9

图1

表1

表2

图2

图3

表3

图4

表4

图5

参考文献 9

[9]	[Xu K, Wu S H, Chen D X, et al.The urban growth boundary determination based on hydrology effect: Taking Xinminzhou as an example[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2013,33(8):979-985. ]
[10]	龙瀛,韩昊英,毛其智.利用约束性CA制定城市增长边界[J].地理学报,2009,64(8):999-1008. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2009.08.010
	[Long Y, Han H Y, Mao Q Z.Establishing urban growth boundaries using constrained CA[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2009,64(8):999-1008. ] doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2009.08.010
[11]	Tayyebi A, Pijanowski B C, Pekin B.Two rule-based urban growth boundary models applied to the Tehran Metropolitan Area, Iran[J]. Applied Geography, 2011,31(3):908-918. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.01.018
[12]	石伟伟. 武汉市城市发展边界的设定研究[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2008.
	[Shi W W.A study on setting of the urban growth boundary of Wuhan city[D]. Wuhan: Huazhong Agricultural University, 2008. ]
[13]	Arsanjani J J, Helbich M, Vaz E D N. Spatiotemporal simulation of urban growth patterns using agent-based modeling: The case of Tehran[J]. Cities, 2013,32(4):33-42. doi: 10.1016/j.cities.2013.01.005
[14]	Nemmour H, Chibani Y.Multiple support vector machines for land cover change detection: An application for mapping urban extensions[J]. Isprs Journal of Photogrammetry & Remote Sensing, 2006, 61(2):125-133. doi: 10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2006.09.004
[15]	周锐,王新军,苏海龙,等. 基于生态安全格局的城市增长边界划定——以平顶山新区为例[J]. 城市规划学刊,2014(4):57-63. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-3363.2014.04.010
	[Zhou R, Wang X J, Su H L. Delimitation of urban growth boundary based on ecological security pattern: A case of Pingding new district[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2014(4):57-63. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-3363.2014.04.010
[16]	Hu Y, Zheng Y, Zheng X.Simulation of land-use scenarios for Beijing using CLUE-S and Markov composite models[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2013,23(1):92-100. doi: 10.1007/s11769-013-0594-9
[17]	Yang X, Zheng X Q, Chen R.A land use change model: Integrating landscape pattern indexes and Markov-CA[J]. Ecological Modeling, 2014,283(7):1-7. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.03.011
[1]	龙瀛,韩昊英,赖世刚. 城市增长边界实施评估:分析框架及其在北京的应用[J]. 城市规划学刊,2015(1):93-100. doi: 10.16361/j.upf.201501013
	[Long Y, Han H Y, Lai S G. Implementation evaluation of urban growth boundaries: An analytical framework for China and a case study of Beijing[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2015(1):93-100. ] doi: 10.16361/j.upf.201501013
[2]	张润朋,周春山.美国城市增长边界研究进展与评述[J].规划师,2010,26(11):89-96. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-0022.2010.11.017
	[Zhang R P, Zhou C S.Urban growth boundary research in America[J]. Planners, 2010,26(11):89-96. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-0022.2010.11.017
[3]	祝仲文,莫滨,谢芙蓉.基于土地生态适宜性评价的城市空间增长边界划定——以防城港市为例[J].规划师, 2009,25(11):40-44. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-0022.2009.11.010
	[Zhu Z W, Mo B, Xie F R.Delimitation of urban growth boundary based on landecological suitability evaluation: A case of Fangchenggang[J]. Planners, 2009,25(11):40-44. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-0022.2009.11.010
[4]	蒋玮. 成都市中心城区城市空间增长边界研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2012.
	[Jiang W.Research on urban growth boundary of the Centre area in Chengdu[D]. Chengdu: Southwest Jiaotong University, 2012. ]
[5]	王玉国,尹小玲,李贵才.基于土地生态适宜性评价的城市空间增长边界划定——以深汕特别合作区为例[J].城市发展研究,2012,19(11):76-82. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-3862.2012.11.012
	[Wang Y G, Yin X L, Li G C.Delimitation of urbangrowth boundary based on land ecological suitability evaluation: A case of Shenshan special corporation zone[J]. Urban Studies, 2012,19(11):76-82. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-3862.2012.11.012
[6]	李旭锋. 哈尔滨城市空间增长边界设定研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2010.
	[Li X F.The research on setting of Harbin urban growth boundaries[D]. Harbin: Harbin Institute of Technology, 2010. ]
[7]	吴小平,陈志江,贾成义,等. 县级城市中心城区增长边界划定思路与策略——海南省白沙黎族自治县中心城区案例[J]. 规划师,2015(9):126-132. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-0022.2015.09.021
	[Wu X P, Chen Z J, Jia C Y, et al. Urban growth boundary of county level towns:Baisha Li ethnic minority county[J]. Planners, 2015(9):126-132. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-0022.2015.09.021
[8]	苏伟忠,杨桂山,陈爽,等.城市增长边界分析方法研究——以长江三角洲常州市为例[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(2):322-331. doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.02.015
	[Su W Z, Yang G S, Chen S, et al.Analysis method of urban growth boundary of the Changzhou city in the Yangtze river delta[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2012,27(2):322-331. ] doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.02.015
[9]	徐康,吴绍华,陈东湘,等.基于水文效应的城市增长边界的确定——以镇江新民洲为例[J].地理科学,2013,33(8):979-985.

因子	适宜级别	分类条件	单因子得分	权重
坡度/°	不适宜	≥25	1
	较不适宜	15~25	2	0.21
	适宜	5~15	3
	很适宜	0~5	4
高程/m	不适宜	≥1000	1
	较不适宜	500~1000	2	0.11
	适宜	100~400	3
	很适宜	0~100	4
公园水面/m	不适宜	0~200	1
	较不适宜	200~500	2	0.13
	适宜	500~1000	3
	很适宜	>1000	4
土地利用现状	不适宜	耕地、水域	1
	较不适宜	林草地	2	0.23
	适宜	其他用地	3
	很适宜	城镇用地、农村居民点	4
自然保护区/m	不适宜	0~500	1
	较不适宜	500~800	2	0.07
	适宜	800~1000	3
	很适宜	>1000	4
城镇用地/m	不适宜	>3000	1
	较不适宜	2000~3000	2	0.25
	适宜	1000~2000	3
	很适宜	0~1000	4

方向	范围/°	预测2015年改变面积/km²	实际2015年改变面积/km²	面积匹配值/%
东北	0~0	89.37	89.26	100
西北	90~180	87.29	100.18	87
西南	180~270	87.10	93.38	93
东南	270~360	100.72	98.53	102
全部	0~360	364.48	381.35	96

适宜度评价	分值	面积/km²	占总量比值/%
适宜建设区	3.3-4.0	2395.36	14.63
比较适宜建设区	2.6-3.3	2410.45	14.72
限制建设区	2.1-2.6	8486.93	51.83
禁止建设区	1.1-2.1	3081.56	18.82