上海市精细时空尺度人口分布估计与特征分析

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.00800

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市人口实时分布与动态变化特征是城市规划与综合治理的重要依据。受数据获取手段的局限性,准确地获取城市人口的实时分布状况一直是技术瓶颈,而移动通讯技术的迅速普及为这一问题的解决提供了技术途径。本文基于移动通讯信令的连续轨迹数据,实现了城市精细尺度人口分布时空估算的方法流程,并以上海市为研究区,对城市人口分布特征及时空移动过程进行了量化分析。研究表明：① 在数据方面,基于移动通讯信令数据估算城市人口分布的方式样本覆盖广、时空精度高、时效性较强且支持时空尺度灵活多变的应用研究需求,能够定量地描述城市人口分布时空动态特征且能推算城市真实人口规模;② 在人口分布时空特征方面,上海市在全市尺度上,各时段人口空间分布较为稳定且差异较小,而在中心城区日间人口较夜间人口呈现更为显著的空间集聚特征;③ 在人口移动时空特征方面,城市功能承载区与其它区域之间人口移动很少,早晚高峰期各城市功能承载区之间人口移动均体现为中心城区与其它新城之间的移动,且2个方向移动人数较为平衡;各城市功能承载区内均有超过半数的人口全天仅在其所在城区内部活动。本文的研究成果可为上海城市规划、应急管理、交通出行等提供更精准的科学依据。

关键词: 移动通讯信令, 人口分布, 人口移动, 精细尺度, 上海市

Abstract:

Urban population distribution and its dynamic changes have been playing a key role in urban planning and management. Currently, the wide use of information communication technology （ICT） provides an opportunity to support fine-scale studies by acquiring accurate individual positioning data. By extracting regular individual trajectories from a mobile communication signaling dataset, this study established an estimation procedure of urban population distribution and quantitatively analyzed spatiotemporal characteristics of population distribution and migration in Shanghai. The results indicated that, firstly, mobile communication signaling data had the ability to describe the dynamic characteristics of urban population and to estimate the real population size of a city in a quantitative and relatively an authentic way by taking its advantages of wide sample coverage, high spatial resolution, good timeliness and multiple spatiotemporal scales. Secondly, population distribution of Shanghai on the whole is stable all day long. Comparatively, population at the daytime showed a more remarkable spatial agglomeration phenomenon than population at night. Thirdly, the population migration between urban functional areas and other areas is rare. During the rush hour in the morning and evening, the population migration was mainly depicted as a relatively equally both-way movements between central urban area and other new urban functional areas. Within each functional area, more than half of its population is not moving out. In conclusion, this study can be useful for urban planning, emergency management and public traveling information services.

Key words: mobile communication signaling data, population distribution, population migration, fine scale, Shanghai

李明晓, 陈洁, 张恒才, 仇培元, 刘康, 陆锋. 上海市精细时空尺度人口分布估计与特征分析[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2017, 19(6): 800-807.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.00800

LI Mingxiao,CHEN Jie,ZHANG Hengcai,QIU Peiyuan,LIU Kang,LU Feng. Fine-grained Population Estimation and Distribution Characteristics in Shanghai[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017, 19(6): 800-807.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.00800

图/表 6

图1

图2

表1

图3

图4

表2

参考文献 26

[1]	张善余. 人口地理学概论(第三版)[M].上海:华东师范大学出版社,2013.
	[ Zhang S Y.Population Geography (The Third Edition)[M]. Shanghai: East China Normal University Press, 2013. ]
[2]	闫庆武,卞正富,张萍等.基于居民点密度的人口密度空间化[J].地理与地理信息科学,2011,27(5):95-98.
	[ Yan Q W, Bian Z F, Zhang P, et al.Census Spatialization Based on Settlements Density[J]. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2011,27(5):95-98. ]
[3]	Krunić N, Bajat B, Kilibarda M.Dasymetric Mapping of Population Distribution in Serbia Based on Soil Sealing Degrees Layer[M]. Surface Models for Geosciences. Springer International Publishing, 2015:137-149.
[4]	Alahmadi M, Atkinson P, Martin D.Estimating the spatial distribution of the population of Riyadh[J]. Saudi Arabia using remotely sensed built land cover and height data. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2013,41:167-176.
[5]	Ural S, Hussain E, Shan J.Building population mapping with aerial imagery and GIS data[J]. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 2011,13(6):841-852. doi: 10.1016/j.jag.2011.06.004
[6]	Azar D, Engstrom R, Graesser J, et al.Generation of fine-scale population layers using multi-resolution satellite imagery and geospatial data[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2013,130:219-232. doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2012.11.022
[7]	Lung T, Lubker T, Ngochoch J K, et al.Human population distribution modelling at regional level using very high resolution satellite imagery[J]. Applied Geography, 2013,41:36-45. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2013.03.002
[8]	Liu X, Wang J.The geography of Weibo[J]. Environment and Planning A, 2015,47(6):1231-1234.
[9]	Pan G, Qi G, Wu Z, et al.Land-use classification using taxi GPS traces[J]. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 2013,14(1):113-123. doi: 10.1109/TITS.2012.2209201
[10]	Cranshaw J,Schwartz R,Hong J I,et al.The livehoods project: Utilizing social media to understand the dynamics of a city[C]. International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media. 2012:58-65.
[11]	Ratti C, Frenchman D, Pulselli R M, et al.Mobile landscapes: using location data from cell phones for urban analysis[J]. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 2006,33(5):727-748.
[12]	Pierre D, Catherine L, Samuel M, et al.Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014,111(45):15888-15893. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1408439111
[13]	钮心毅,丁亮,宋小冬.基于手机数据识别上海中心城的城市空间结构[J].城市规划学刊,2014(6):61-67.
	[ Niu X Y, Ding L, Song X D.Understanding urban spatial structure of Shanghai central city based on mobile phone data[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2014,6:61-67. ]
[14]	Sanou B.The World in 2013: ICT facts and figures[R]. International Telecommunications Union, 2013.
[15]	冉斌. 手机数据在交通调查和交通规划中的应用[J].城市交通,2013(1):72-81,32.
	[ Ran B.Use of cellphone data in travel survey and transportation planning[J]. Urban Transport of China, 2013,1:72-81,32. ]
[16]	王德,王灿,谢栋灿,等.基于手机信令数据的上海市不同等级商业中心商圈的比较——以南京东路、五角场、鞍山路为例[J].城市规划学刊,2015(3):50-60. doi: 10.16361/j.upf.201503007
	[ Wang D, Wang C, Xie D C, et al.Comparison of retail trade areas of retail centers with different hierarchical levels: a case study of east Nanjing Road, Wujiaochang, Anshan Road in Shanghai[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2015,3:50-60. ] doi: 10.16361/j.upf.201503007
[17]	高向东,吴文钰.20世纪90年代上海市人口分布变动及模拟[J].地理学报,2005,60(4):637-644. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2005.04.012
	[ Gao X D, Wu W Y.Population redistribution and modelling of Shanghai City in the 1990s[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005,60(4):637-644. ] doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2005.04.012
[18]	李健,宁越敏.1990年代以来上海人口空间变动与城市空间结构重构[J].城市规划学刊,2007(2):20-24.
	[ Li J, Ning Y M.Population spatial change and urban spatial restructuring in Shanghai since the 1990s[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2007,2:20-24. ]
[19]	王裕明,吉祥,刘彩云.上海市人口结构变化预测研究[J].上海经济研究,2014(3):89-98.
	[ Wang Y M, Ji X, Liu C Y.Study on prediction of population change in Shanghai[J]. Shanghai Journal of Economics, 2014,3:89-98. ]
[20]	孙斌栋,魏旭红.上海都市区就业——人口空间结构演化特征[J].地理学报,2014,69(6):747-758. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201406003
	[ Sun B D, Wei X H.Spatial distribution and structure evolution of employment and population in Shanghai metropolitan area. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014,69(6):747-758. ] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201406003
[21]	丁亮,钮心毅,宋小冬.上海中心城就业中心体系测度——基于手机信令数据的研究[J].地理学报,2016,71(3):484-499. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201603011
	[ Ding L, Niu X Y, Song X D.Measuring the employment center system in Shanghai central city: a study using mobile phone signaling data[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016,71(3):484-499. ] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201603011
[22]	张天然. 基于手机信令数据的上海市域职住空间分析[J].城市交通,2016,14(1):15-23. doi: 10.13813/j.cn11-5141/u.2016.0103
	[ Zhang T R.Job-housing spatial distribution analysis in Shanghai metropolitan area based on cellular signaling data[J]. Urban Transport of China, 2016,14(1):15-23. ] doi: 10.13813/j.cn11-5141/u.2016.0103
[23]	许宁,尹凌,胡金星.从大规模短期规则采样的手机定位数据中识别居民职住地[J].武汉大学学报·信息科学版,2014,39(6):750-756. doi: 10.13203/j.whugis20140085
	[ Xu N, Yin L, Hu J X.Identifying home-work locations from short-term, large-scale, and regularly sampled mobile phone tracking data[J]. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University, 2014,39(6):750-756. ] doi: 10.13203/j.whugis20140085
[24]	罗仁朝,王德.上海流动人口聚居区类型及其特征研究.城市规划,2009(2):31-37.
	[ Luo R C, Wang D.Types and characteristics of migrant communities in Shanghai. City Planning Review, 2009,2:31-37. ]
[25]	付磊,唐子来.上海市外来人口社会空间结构演化的特征与趋势[J].城市规划学刊,2008(1):69-76.
	[ Fu L, Tang Z L.The social spatial structure of floating population in Shanghai and its evolution since the reform and opening-up. Urban Planning Forum, 2008,1:69-76. ]
[26]	吕晨. 人口的迁移与流动[M].广州:中山大学出版社,2014.
	[ Lv C.The migration and movement of population[M]. Guangzhou: Sun Yat-sen University Press, 2014. ]

区域	白天人口/万人	夜间人口/万人	昼夜人口比/%
中心城区	1109.30	1061.71	104.48
南桥新城	28.30	28.09	100.75
松江新城	92.87	89.67	103.57
闵行新城	145.16	152.73	95.04
嘉定新城	39.44	35.11	112.33
青浦新城	45.00	42.31	106.36
宝山新城	38.25	40.36	94.77
城桥新城	5.75	5.72	100.52
金山新城	18.94	19.54	96.93
临港新城	21.05	20.52	102.58

主要通道	不平衡系数（早高峰）	不平衡系数（晚高峰）
中心城区-闵行新城	1.352	1.389
中心城区-宝山新城	1.269	1.166
中心城区-松江新城	1.181	1.144
中心城区-嘉定新城	1.582	1.518
中心城区-青浦新城	1.366	1.378
中心城区-南桥新城	1.022	1.071
中心城区-临港新城	2.115	2.174
闵行新城-南桥新城	1.111	1.049
闵行新城-松江新城	1.236	1.172