“一带一路”国家和地区百年尺度干旱化特征分析

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01442

地球信息科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (11): 1442-1455.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01442

• 地理空间分析综合应用 • 上一篇下一篇

“一带一路”国家和地区百年尺度干旱化特征分析

王飞(), 丁建丽^*(), 魏阳

新疆大学资源与环境科学学院智慧城市与环境建模自治区普通高校重点实验室,乌鲁木齐 830046

收稿日期:2017-06-01 修回日期:2017-08-21 出版日期:2017-11-10 发布日期:2017-11-10
通讯作者: 丁建丽 E-mail:volitation610@163.com;watarid@xju.edu.cn
作者简介:
作者简介：王飞（1986-）,男,博士,研究方向为地图学与地理信息系统。E-mail: volitation610@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U1603241);国家自然科学基金项目（41661046、41771470）;中国博士后面上基金项目（2016M6 02909）;自治区科技支疆项目（201591101）;新疆大学博士启动基金（BS150248）;新疆维吾尔自治区重点实验室专项基金项目（2014KL005）

Analysis of Drought Characteristics over Countries and Regions of “The Belt and Road Initiatives” in Recent One Hundred Years

WANG Fei(), DING Jianli^*(), WEI Yang

Key Laboratory of Smart City and Envionment Modelling of Higher Education Insititute, College of Resources and Environment Science, XinJiang University, Urmuqi 830046, China

Received:2017-06-01 Revised:2017-08-21 Online:2017-11-10 Published:2017-11-10
Contact: DING Jianli E-mail:volitation610@163.com;watarid@xju.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了充分了解“一带一路”国家和地区百年的干旱变化规律和趋势,探索其干湿变化情况,本文利用标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI（Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index）1901-2013年12个月和3个月尺度的0.5°×0.5°数据,结合线性趋势、PCA主成分分析、Mann-Kenndall非参数检验和小波分析等方法研究多时间尺度下干旱趋势和周期变化特征。结果表明,研究区百年尺度内（1901-2013）干旱指数和面积呈现波动上升趋势,但干旱化进程缓慢,60%以上地区呈现缓慢变湿趋势,SPEI指数发生显著上升地区面积百分比为25.38%,发生显著下降地区面积仅占12.02%。MK检验和PCA分析均显示15°~35°N的中低纬度地区干旱化程度最为严重,主要地区为北非及阿拉伯半岛、伊朗高原,常年呈现显著干旱状态,而俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、印度半岛以及中国和蒙古两国干湿变化季节性特征明显。基于Morlet小波分析的周期分析显示,年际和季节SPEI指数的周期特征既具有相似性,又存在一定的差异性,尺度越小干湿变化交替越明显,尺度越大虽有全局特征但所展示的周期不能通过显著性检验,最终得到可用显著周期年际SPEI变化显著尺度为2~4 a,干旱特征在此尺度的周期中时间变化显著。

关键词: SPEI, 一路一带, 趋势分析, PCA分析, 小波分析

Abstract:

In order to understand the existing drought variation, to unveil the alternation between wet condition and dry condition, and to predict the future of drought in the countries and regions along “The Belt and Road Initiatives”, we analyzed the pattern of periodical variation and the trend of drought under multiple temporal scales. Specifically, we used 0.5°×0.5° SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Indices) data with two temporal scales of 12-month and 3-month from 1901 to 2013 for analysis. Linear trend, principal component analysis (PCA), Mann-kenndall (M-K), and wavelet analysis are employed to analyze the multi-temporal scale data. The results showed that the SPEI and the drought area increase slowly at both annual and seasonal（except summer）scales over the past 113 years. However, 60% of the research area is slowly getting wetter. Also, 25.38% of the research area had significant SPEI increased, and only 12.02% of the research area had significant SPEI decreased. Both M-K and PCA indicated that the low latitude area between 15°-35°, including North Africa, Arabian Peninsula and Iranian Plateau, has the most frequent drought occurrence. M-K and PCA also show that Russia, Kazakhstan, the India Peninsula, Mongolia, and China have significant seasonal drought discrepancies. The wavelet spectral analysis revealed that the main periods of the annual and seasonal scale have both similar and different features: investigation with a long-time scale (annual) presents general trends yet fails the significance test of the wetting and drying alternation pattern. Such alternation only presents significant patterns with short-time scale. Finally, it appears that the variation pattern of drought is significant with annual drought period of 2-4 a.

Key words: SPEI, The Belt and Road Initiatives, trend analysis, PCA, wavelet analysis

王飞, 丁建丽, 魏阳. “一带一路”国家和地区百年尺度干旱化特征分析[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2017, 19(11): 1442-1455.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01442

WANG Fei,DING Jianli,WEI Yang. Analysis of Drought Characteristics over Countries and Regions of “The Belt and Road Initiatives” in Recent One Hundred Years[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017, 19(11): 1442-1455.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01442

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“一带一路”国家和地区百年尺度干旱化特征分析

Analysis of Drought Characteristics over Countries and Regions of “The Belt and Road Initiatives” in Recent One Hundred Years

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