长江三角洲地区高温热浪人群健康风险评价

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01475

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在全球极端气象、气候事件频发的背景下,获取高分辨的灾害风险信息对于区域防灾减灾决策具有重要的参考价值。而在当前的灾害风险评估中,基于行政单元的人口和社会经济等承灾体信息与栅格水平上的致灾因子普遍存在空间不匹配的现象。本文通过融合多源遥感数据和人口、社会经济统计数据,在利用人居指数对高温人口暴露进行空间化的基础上,获取了250 m分辨率的长江三角洲地区高温热浪人群健康风险空间格局。结果表明,风险等级较高的地区集中在上海、常州、杭州、宁波、无锡、嘉兴、泰州等城市的中心城区,主要是较高的人口暴露度和城市高温共同作用的结果;而大城市近郊以及各规模较小的城区的风险等级次之;相对欠发达地区虽然人口暴露程度较低,但较高的高温危险性和社会经济脆弱性指数使得这些地区的高温人群健康风险也不容忽视。识别高风险地区的风险主导因子对于提高人群高温适应能力以及减轻高温健康风险具有重要意义。

关键词: 高温热浪, 公共健康, 高温风险, 风险评估, 长江三角洲地区

Abstract:

The increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events (EHEs), potentially associated with climate change in the near future, highlights the importance of heat health risks assessment, which is an important starting point for the reduction of heat-related mortality and sustainable development. However, there is a spatiotemporal mismatch between hazard data (at pixel-level) and exposure data (at census unit level) in heat health risks assessment. Based on multisensor remote sensing data and demographic and socioeconomic statistical data, we used a human settlement index to assess heat exposure. Heat health risks and its driving factors were spatially explicitly assessed and mapped at the 250 m × 250 m pixel-level across the Yangtze River Delta region (YRD). The visual inspection suggests that the high risks areas were mainly distributed in urbanized areas of YRD, including the downtown of Shanghai, Changzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wuxi, Jiaxing and Taizhou, which was mostly driven by the high human exposure and heat hazard index. In less-urbanized cities and the suburban and rural areas of mega-cities, the heat health risks come second. Even though the human exposure index was low in other less-developed areas, the heat health risks in those areas were high due to the high heat hazard and human vulnerability index. It's of great importance to identify the driving factors of high heat health risks to provide science-based support for adaptation strategies and emergency planning.

Key words: heat waves, public health, heat health risk, risk assessment, the Yangtze River Delta region

陈倩, 丁明军, 杨续超, 胡可嘉. 长江三角洲地区高温热浪人群健康风险评价[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2017, 19(11): 1475-1484.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01475

CHEN Qian,DING Mingjun,YANG Xuchao,HU Kejia. Spatially Explicit Assessment of Heat Health Risks Using Multi-source Data: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Region, China[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017, 19(11): 1475-1484.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01475

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综合指标	变量	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值	性质
年龄	≤5岁人口比例	0.0383	0.0077	0.0184	0.0634	+
年龄	≥65岁人口比例	0.1088	0.0285	0.0413	0.1900	+
居住隔离	≥60岁独居人口比例	0.0350	0.0359	0.0074	0.2241	+
社会经济状况	文盲占15岁及以上人口比例	0.0451	0.0241	0.0121	0.1180	+
	有洗澡设施住房比例	0.7610	0.1279	0.4022	0.9394	-
	卫生机构床位数/个	9408.08	14 187.12	326	61703	-
	每百户居民空调拥有量/台	159.20	27.13	82	214.30	-
	人均GDP/元	81 487.39	33 971.60	26 771.92	189 351.91	-

排名	统计单元	所处省市	排名	统计单元	所处省市
1	上海中心城区	上海市	11	常州市市辖区	江苏常州
2	宝山区	上海市	12	镇江市市辖区	江苏镇江
3	闵行区	上海市	13	桐乡市	浙江台州
4	嘉定区	上海市	14	杭州市市辖区	浙江杭州
5	泰州市市辖区	江苏泰州	15	嘉兴市市辖区	浙江嘉兴
6	浦东新区	上海市	16	江阴市	江苏无锡
7	奉贤区	上海市	17	金山区	上海市
8	青浦区	上海市	18	泰兴市	江苏泰州
9	松江区	上海市	19	海宁市	浙江嘉兴
10	慈溪市	浙江宁波	20	无锡市市辖区	江苏无锡