基于最邻近时空距离的土地变化过程时空模式分析

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190569

地球信息科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (3): 628-637.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190569

• “土地利用模拟”专栏 • 上一篇下一篇

基于最邻近时空距离的土地变化过程时空模式分析

聂拼¹, 梁明^2,^3,^*(), 李玉洁^2,³, 游欣妍^2,³, 孙晓娟⁴

^1. 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京 210023
^2. 安徽大学资源与环境工程学院,合肥 230601
^3. 安徽大学安徽省矿山生态修复工程实验室,合肥 230601
^4. 武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,武汉 430079

收稿日期:2019-09-30 修回日期:2019-12-27 出版日期:2020-03-25 发布日期:2020-05-18
通讯作者: 梁明 E-mail:lming@mail.ccnu.edu.cn
作者简介:聂拼（1996— ）,女,湖南娄底人,硕士生,主要从事时空数据的建模与分析研究。E-mail:mg1927070@smail.nju.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41602173);国家自然科学基金项目(41771188);安徽省自然科学基金项目(1908085QD164);安徽省高等学校自然科学研究项目(KJ2019A0046);安徽省国土厅科技项目(2016-K-12)

Spatiotemporal Model Analysis of Land Change Process based on Nearest Spatiotemporal Distance

NIE Pin¹, LIANG Ming^2,^3,^*(), LI Yujie^2,³, YOU Xinyan^2,³, SUN Xiaojuan⁴

^1. School of Geography and Ocean Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
^2. School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China
^3. Anhui Province Engineering Laboratory for Mine Ecological Remediation, Anhui University, Hefei 230601, China
^4. School of Resource and Environment Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China

Received:2019-09-30 Revised:2019-12-27 Online:2020-03-25 Published:2020-05-18
Contact: LIANG Ming E-mail:lming@mail.ccnu.edu.cn
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41602173);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41771188);National Natural Science Foundation of Anhui(1908085QD164);Natural Science Research Project of Anhui Higher Education Institutions(KJ2019A0046);Science and Technology Project of Department of Land and Resources of Anhui Province(2016-K-12)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地利用/土地覆盖受人类活动和城市的快速扩张的影响发生了巨大的变化,这种变化对生态环境和地表景观的影响极大。土地利用/土地覆盖的变化过程既受自然、经济等多种因素的影响,也是人类活动规律和自然因素制约的外部表征。因此研究土地利用/土地覆盖的变化过程具有重要的意义。土地利用/覆盖变化的监测和分析,在传统的方法中侧重于分别对各个时空快照上土地利用结构的整体差异的研究,割裂了不同快照间土地利用单元在演化过程上的有机联系。本文以序列土地利用数据构成的土地变化过程为核心研究对象,在土地变化过程的最邻近时空距离度量的基础上,开展基于蒙特卡洛随机模拟的土地变化过程的时空聚集性度量,量化分析土地利用变化过程时空聚集模式的显著性。使用淮南市市辖区2008—2017年土地利用数据,选取典型的时空演化类型（任意2年间从“耕地”演变为“草地”）进行实证研究,结果表明此类土地变化过程在过去10年呈现出时空聚集模式,但统计上并不显著。本文的研究有利于把握土地利用单元在时空上的演变过程,探查土地利用变化过程中潜在的时空演化模式。

关键词: 土地变化过程, 时空模式, 时空聚集性, 最邻近距离, 蒙特卡洛模拟, 时空距离, 土地利用/覆盖变化, 显著性评价

Abstract:

Due to human activities and rapid urban expansion, land use/land cover has changed dramatically. The change has a great impact on the ecological environment and surface landscape. The change process of land use and cover change is not only affected by various factors such as nature and economy, but also an external representation restricted by the laws of human activities and natural factors. Therefore, it is of vital significance to study the change process of land use and land cover. For the monitoring and analysis of land use and cover change, the traditional method focuses on the study of the overall differences in land use structure in each spatiotemporal snapshot. This method cuts off the organic connection of land use units in the evolution process between different snapshots. Traditional research has the phenomenon of paying attention to pattern but neglecting process and emphasizing simulation but despising measurement. This paper takes the land change process composed of serial land use data as the core research object. The advantage of this is that the relevant land evolution units at different time snapshots can be considered as a unified whole. On this basis, this paper chooses the nearest spatiotemporal distance to measure the spatiotemporal agglomeration of the land use change process. First, through multiple experiments, the appropriate space-time grid was selected to segment the land use/land cover data in the study area. Secondly, based on the analysis, the typical land use change process was extracted. And then, for the land use change process object on the space-time cube, calculate the average nearest-neighbor spatiotemporal distance. The distance is compared with the distance value in the random mode based on Monte Carlo simulation, so as to judge the spatiotemporal aggregation of the land use change process in the study area. Finally, the results were tested for statistical significance. The land use data of Huainan mining area from 2008 to 2017 was used for empirical research. The land use evolution process from cultivated land to grassland in any two years was selected as a typical spatiotemporal evolution type. The results show that this type of land change in the study area has exhibited a spatiotemporal aggregation pattern in the past 10 years, but the pattern is not statistically significant. The research in this paper is helpful for grasping the evolution process of land use units in space and time, and to explore the potential spatiotemporal evolution patterns in the process of land use change.

Key words: land change process, spatiotemporal patterns, spatiotemporal aggregation, nearest neighbor distance, Monte Carlo simulation, spatiotemporal distance, LUCC, significance evaluation

聂拼, 梁明, 李玉洁, 游欣妍, 孙晓娟. 基于最邻近时空距离的土地变化过程时空模式分析[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2020, 22(3): 628-637.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190569

NIE Pin, LIANG Ming, LI Yujie, YOU Xinyan, SUN Xiaojuan. Spatiotemporal Model Analysis of Land Change Process based on Nearest Spatiotemporal Distance[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2020, 22(3): 628-637.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190569

图/表 9

图1

图2

图3

表1

时空随机模式的显著性评价标准"

$z - score$	p值（概率）	置信度/%	显著性
>-1.65且<1.65	—	—	不显著
<-1.65或>1.65	<0.10	90	显著
<-1.96或>1.96	<0.05	95	显著
<-2.58或>2.58	<0.01	99	显著

表1

图4

图5

图6

图7

表2

蒙特卡洛模拟实验与显著性评价实验结果"

最邻近指数 $R$	$z - score$ 值	时空分布模式类型	显著性评价
0.343	0.920	时空聚集模式	统计上不显著

表2

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基于最邻近时空距离的土地变化过程时空模式分析

Spatiotemporal Model Analysis of Land Change Process based on Nearest Spatiotemporal Distance

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