Journal of Geo-information Science ›› 2020, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (3): 580-591.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190404

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Urban-agricultural-ecological Space Zoning based on Scenario Simulation

KE Xinli*(), XIAO Bangyong, ZHENG Weiwei, MA Yanchun, LI Hongyan   

  1. College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
  • Received:2019-07-28 Revised:2019-12-14 Online:2020-03-25 Published:2020-05-18
  • Contact: KE Xinli E-mail:kexl@mail.hzau.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41371113);National Social Science Foundation of China(13CGL092)

Abstract:

The urban-agricultural-ecological space zoning (referred to as the "three zones") is the core content of land space planning. It is important for scientific and rational planning and using of limited land resources. The former researches set up various indicator systems for "three zones", mainly based on the current regional land use and socio-economic development status. But they rarely incorporate future land use changes into the "three-zone" delineation process, making the results less forward-looking in guiding practice. To make up the gap of current research, we propose a new "three zones" delineation method in this paper. It is based on the simulation of land use scenarios and combines the advantages of indicator system and decision tree data mining, which is different from the traditional method of "indicator system - weighted comprehensive value". This paper selected Wuhan as the research area, and used this method to explore the spatial differences of the "three zones" under different land use scenarios in the future. We simulated four land use scenarios of Wuhan in 2035 (Natural development scenario, Farmland protection scenario, Ecological protection scenario and Balance development scenario) based on the land use of Wuhan in 2015. After that, we combined the constructed indicator system and multiple textual references to select typical samples for decision tree training. Then using the classification rule set generated by the decision tree (86.4% average accuracy) to identify the "three zones" spatial categories of the research units. Finally, we obtained the "three zones" distribution under different land use scenarios. Compared with the similar former researches, the method proposed in this article is more reasonable and feasible and can be used in specific research and practice. Besides, we found that: (1) there are obvious differences in the area, spatial distribution and main change types of the "three zones" caused by different land use scenarios. So, it is indeed necessary to incorporate future land-use changes into the "three zones" delineation process. (2) The spatial distribution of "three zones" in different land use scenarios shows similar characteristics. The differences in spatial distribution of "three zones" in different land use scenarios are mainly the border area where the main land use function changes. Therefore, these areas are the key areas that land space planning should focus on.

Key words: land space planning, "urban-agricultural-ecological space" zoning, LANDSCAPE model, LUCC, scenario simulation, the C5.0 decision tree, data mining, Wuhan City