1992—2017年基于夜光遥感的中亚社会经济发展时空特征分析

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190808

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper takes Central Asian as study area, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Since the independence of these countries, they have experienced many significant events, such as political and economic reforms, the Russian financial crisis, the global financial crisis, and the fluctuation of international raw material prices. In order to study the socio-economic developments and changes of Central Asia in the past 30 years (1992—2017), based on DMSP/OLS, NPP/VIIRS, and yearbook data, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal developments and their driving factors using the total Night-time Light (SNL) index, the Night-time Light Growth Rate (PNLG), as well as the socio-economic data. The results show that: (1) Night-time light can better characterize the spatiotemporal changes of the socio-economic development. Also, night-time light is more intuitive and sensitive than the socio-economic parameters such as GDP; (2) The socio-economic reforms in the early period of independence had a large and wide impact on Central Asia. The SNL of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan declined largely. Only the SNL of Turkmenistan increased by 4.5%; (3) Due to differences in basic socio-economic conditions and the richness of natural resources, the gaps of night-time light in Central Asian countries have gradually widened, and the abilities to withstand risks have greatly varied. For example, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are rich in natural resources, especially oil and gas, while Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have few natural resources. When the 2008 global financial crisis occurred, Kazakhstan was least affected (PNLG= -3.6%) while Tajikistan was most affected (PNLG = -36.4%); (4) Central Asian countries are susceptible to the impact of international energy market prices, especially the increase of oil and gas prices. The sharp rise in the price of international raw materials market in 2000, especially the price of oil and gas, had led to a sharp rise in SNL and a quick rebound in economy of Central Asian countries. However, the decline of international oil and gas prices in 2015 hammered the development of Central Asian countries who heavily relied on the exports of oil and gas. Based on the nighttime light images from 1992 to 2017, this paper studies the spatiotemporal characteristics of socio-economic development in Central Asian countries in nearly 30 years since the independence, and then explores the driving factors. This study can provide decision-making reference for the security guarantee of Central Asia and the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Key words: Central Asia, DMSP/OLS, NPP/VIIR, nighttime light, remote sensing, social and economic development, GDP, natural resources

ZHU Hui, ZHANG Qingling, ZHANG Shan. Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Socio-Economic Development in Central Asia based on A Series of Nighttime Light Images from 1992 to 2017[J].Journal of Geo-information Science, 2020, 22(7): 1449-1462.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2020.190808

Figures/Tables 14

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国家	人口/人	面积/km²	人均GDP/美元
中亚地区	7.1×10⁷	4.0×10⁶	2 2242.36
哈萨克斯坦	1.8×10⁷	2.7×10⁶	10867.74
乌兹别克斯坦	3.2×10⁷	4.5×10⁵	1961.33
土库曼斯坦	5.8×10⁶	4.9×10⁵	7318.07
吉尔吉斯斯坦	6.1×10⁶	2.0×10⁵	1070.37
塔吉克斯坦	8.9×10⁶	1.4×10⁵	1024.86

数据集	时段	空间分辨率	数据来源	网址
DMSP夜光数据	1992—2012	约1 km	NOAA	https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/eog/dmsp/downloadV4composites.html
VIIRS夜光数据	2012—2017	约500 m	NOAA	http://ngdc.noaa.gov/eog/viirs/download_viirs_ntl.html
油气活动多边形	1995—2006	—	NOAA	https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/eog/interest/gas_flares.html
社会经济参数	1992—2017	—	世界银行	https://data.worldbank.org.cn/
			BP世界能源统计	https://www.bp.com/
			中亚国家统计年鉴	http://www.zywx.xjlas.org
行政边界	2018	—	GADM	https://gadm.org/

卫星号	年份
F10	1992、1993、1994
F12	1994、1995、1996、1997、1998、1999
F14	1997、1998、1999、2000、2002、2001、2002
F15	2000、2001、2002、2003、2004、2005、2007
F16	2004、2005、2006、2007、2008、2009
F18	2010、2011、2012

时段	哈萨克斯坦	乌兹别克斯坦	土库曼斯坦	吉尔吉斯斯坦	塔吉克斯坦
1992—1998	-42.9	-11.0	4.5	-0.5	-33.7
1999—2000	62.3	17.7	26.6	22.4	32.4
1999—2012	150.7	-9.0	74.4	72.5	7.4
1992—2012	10.7	-31.6	94.0	36.3	-37.3
2012—2017	103.9	-2.6	12.4	116.1	104.8
2014—2015	-18.2	-12.6	-14.6	-7.7	16.7

国家	重度下滑	中度下滑	轻度下滑	缓慢增长	快速增长	高速增长
国家	1992—1998 年
哈萨克斯坦	28.6	57.1	0	7.15	7.15	0
乌兹别克斯坦	0	21.4	57.1	14.4	7.1	0
土库曼斯坦	0	0	50	33.3	0	16.7
吉尔吉斯斯坦	0	11.15	33.3	44.4	11.15	0
塔吉克斯坦	20	20	40	0	0	20
国家	1999—2012年
国家	重度下滑	中度下滑	轻度下滑	缓慢增长	快速增长	高速增长
哈萨克斯坦	0	0	0	7.15	7.15	85.7
乌兹别克斯坦	0	21.45	57.1	0	21.45	0
土库曼斯坦	0	0	0	33.3	16.7	50
吉尔吉斯斯坦	0	0	11.1	11.1	11.1	66.7
塔吉克斯坦	0	20	0	20	40	20
国家	2012—2017年
国家	重度下滑	中度下滑	轻度下滑	缓慢增长	快速增长	高速增长
哈萨克斯坦	0	0	7.15	0	7.15	85.7
乌兹别克斯坦	0	7.1	14.3	14.3	28.6	35.7
土库曼斯坦	0	0	33.3	16.7	0	50
吉尔吉斯斯坦	0	0	0	0	22.2	77.8
塔吉克斯坦	0	0	0	0	20	80

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Socio-Economic Development in Central Asia based on A Series of Nighttime Light Images from 1992 to 2017

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