中国省域煤矿事故时空分异特征及影响因素研究

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.170277

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

煤矿事故给国家和人民带来巨大的生命财产损失,科学把握煤矿事故发生的宏观规律及区域煤矿安全的影响因素有助于促进煤矿安全生产。本文尝试采用GIS空间分析方法开展区域煤矿事故的研究,基于空间自相关性、时空演化规律方法研究了2006-2015年中国省域煤矿事故的时空分异特点,并分析了省域煤矿安全的影响因素及相对风险度。主要结论：①中国各省区之间煤矿事故存在明显的空间自相关性,但随着各省区煤矿安全生产形势改善情况的不同,其自相关性在不断下降;②以空间重心转移曲线分析中国煤矿事故发生的时空演化规律,10年间煤矿事故空间重心向东北方向转移。③重特大事故频发的省区由于监管措施的有力执行往往具有较低的煤矿百万吨死亡率;平均煤矿生产能力低的省区具有较高的煤矿百万吨死亡率;④建立基于解释变量的贝叶斯空间模型,以煤炭百万吨死亡率为指标评估中国各省区煤矿事故相对风险度,中国煤矿安全生产相对危险度存在明显的空间分布规律且各省区差异较大,相对危险度较高的省区主要集中在南方地区,包括湖北、福建等,危险度较低的省区主要集中在中东部地区,包括山西、内蒙古等。

关键词: 煤矿事故, 时空分异, 解释变量, 风险评估

Abstract:

Coal mine accidents bring huge loss of life and property to the country and the people. Grasping the occurrence laws of coal mine accidents and the influencing factors of regional coal mine safety is helpful to the safety of coal mine production. This paper tries to research on the coal mine accidents using the theory and method of GIS. Based on the spatial autocorrelation and spatiotemporal evolution model, we analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of coal mine accidents in China from 2006 to 2015 and the influencing factors and relative risk of provincial coal mine safety. The results are as follows: there is obvious spatial autocorrelation of coal mine accidents in China, but the self-correlation is declining with the improvement of coal mine safety production situation in each province. The space-center evolution model of coal mine accidents is expressed by the spatial center of gravity transition curve. The coal mine accident center was shifted to the Northeast in the past ten years, which indicated the improvement of coal mine safety production situation in the southwestern provinces is more obvious than that in the east. The provinces and autonomous regions with frequent occurrence of major accidents tend to have a low coal mine million tons of mortality due to the strong implementation of regulatory measures. Also, the provinces and autonomous regions with the low coal mine production capacity always have a high death rate per million-ton coal. The Bayesian spatial model based on explanatory variables is established to evaluate the relative risk of coal mine accidents in different provinces and autonomous regions. The relative risk of coal mine safety production has an obvious spatial law and is quite different in different provinces and regions in China. The provinces with relatively high risk are mainly located in southern region, such as Hubei and Fujian. Provinces with lower risk are mainly located in the eastern region, such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia.

Key words: coal mine accident, temporal and spatial variation, explanatory variable, risk assessment

张英慧, 高星, 王伟, 查欣洁. 中国省域煤矿事故时空分异特征及影响因素研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2018, 20(3): 311-320.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.170277

ZHANG Yinghui,GAO Xing,WANG Wei,ZHA Xinjie. Spatial-temporal Variation and Influencing Factors of Coal Mine Accidents in China[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2018, 20(3): 311-320.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2018.170277

图/表 13

表1

图1

表2

图2

表3

图3

表4

图4

图5

图6

图7

表5

不同模型拟合程度对比

模型		$D ?$	$p D$	$DIC$
无解释变量		77.04	4.65	81.69
单一解释变量	煤矿规模	63.79	2.89	66.67	72.08
单一解释变量	重特大事故死亡比	72.85	6.85	79.70	72.08
全部解释变量	煤矿规模与重特大事故死亡比	62.51	3.94	66.45

表5

图8

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	年份
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
死亡人数/人	4746	3786	3215	2631	2433	1973	1384	1086	946	598
事故数量/个	2945	2421	1954	1616	1403	1201	779	608	520	352
百万吨死亡率/人	2.04	1.485	1.182	0.892	0.803	0.564	0.374	0.293	0.257	0.159

	年份
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Moran's Index	0.4097	0.4181	0.3965	0.3569	0.3529	0.3616	0.3482	0.2317	0.3210	0.3035
z得分	3.8605	3.9726	3.8494	3.5758	3.4943	3.4740	3.3210	2.2402	2.9698	2.7856
p值	0.0001	0.0001	0.0001	0.0003	0.0005	0.0005	0.0009	0.0251	0.0030	0.0053

	年份
	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Moran's I	0.3271	0.3255	0.3732	0.3054	0.3107	0.4070	0.3071	0.3494	0.2840	0.1164
z得分	3.0898	3.0724	3.4482	2.9418	2.9782	3.7892	2.9202	3.1649	2.6009	1.3244
p值	0.0020	0.0021	0.0006	0.0033	0.0029	0.0002	0.0035	0.0016	0.0093	0.1854

时段	事故数量			死亡人数
时段	距离/km	角度/°	方向	距离/km	角度/°	方向
2006-2007	67.51	213.50	西南	64.37	230.44	西南
2007-2008	46.66	218.51	西南	23.99	48.16	东北
2008-2009	32.55	43.65	东北	24.76	58.93	东北
2009-2010	36.48	192.73	西南	75.08	221.03	西南
2010-2011	45.37	103.41	西北	64.08	224.55	西南
2011-2012	98.64	55.14	东北	160.24	67.10	东北
2012-2013	24.71	353.77	东南	61.58	24.92	东北
2013-2014	177.34	37.99	东北	39.27	75.11	东北
2014-2015	167.93	56.24	东北	300.31	36.44	东北