高温热浪风险评估研究综述

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2019.180544

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在全球气候变化大背景下,极端高温事件发生频率及强度明显增多。据相关气象数据统计,若任由灾害肆虐,越来越多的人将死于全球热效应、疟疾、登革热和其他热相关疾病。本文根据近年来国内外学者研究进展,梳理了高温热浪风险评估的基本步骤,讨论了高温热浪风险评估的风险性框架,提出未来可利用遥感技术构建高温热浪风险的空间评估体系,将孕灾环境的暴露度、危险性、系统脆弱性及适应性相结合,综合构建风险评估体系。针对评估因子的选择进行论述,探讨了图层叠置法、主观赋权法、客观赋权法及组合赋权法等多种确定各指标权重的方法,分析比较了不同方法的利弊,将H-AHP与图层叠置结合的方法与简单的加减、乘除法进行对比,论述其在综合评价模型构建中的优势,并针对高温热浪风险等级的划分方法进行了对比,论述了不同方法适用的不同情况及其优势,为未来建立合理高温热浪灾害风险评估体系提供了方法参考,为进一步了解高温热浪危害,建立高温热浪监测、评估、报告制度,进一步完善建立高温热浪灾害预警体系提供有利依据。

关键词: 高温热浪, 风险评估, 脆弱性, 指标权重, 模型构建, 研究综述

Abstract:

Affected by global warming, extreme heat has become a serious climate disaster in the recent years. Human health, ecological environment, and socioeconomic development have all been affected by heat waves to varying degrees. This study describes the selection of risk factors for heat wave risk assessment and the method of model construction in the recent years. According to the existing literature, we sorted out the basic steps of risk identification and assessment of heat waves. Then we discussed the framework of heat wave risk assessment. The spatial assessment system, which can be used to construct heat wave risk in the future, was proposed. This space system was based on remote sensing technology. The exposure of hazard-bearing body,the hazard of disaster, the vulnerability of pregnant environment and the comprehensive prevention capability of the region should be combined to build a comprehensive evaluation system. Moreover, the selection of evaluation factors was discussed. Based on the literature, we compared various methods for determining the weight of each indicator, such as the graph stacking method, subjective weighting methods, objective weighting methods, and subjective-objective combined weighting methods. We discussed the merits and demerits of each approach. Through comparing the methods, stacking method combined with H-AHP, stood out with its simple addition and subtraction or the multiplication and division, and can be used in the construction of comprehensive evaluation models. And the TOPSIS method, which determines the relative merits of the object based on the distance between the evaluation object and the ideal target,will be the optimal choice for multi-city heat wave risk rating in the future.We provided a reference for constructing a reasonable heat wave disaster risk assessment system in the future. This paper was intended to serve as a basis for further understanding the heat wave hazard and establishing the monitoring, evaluation, and reporting system, as well as for further fostering the establishment of a heat wave disaster warning system in the future.

Key words: heat waves, risk assessment, vulnerability, index weight, model construction, China

武夕琳, 刘庆生, 刘高焕, 黄翀, 李贺. 高温热浪风险评估研究综述[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2019, 21(7): 1029-1039.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2019.180544

Xilin WU, Qingsheng LIU, Gaohuan LIU, Chong HUANG, He LI. Risk Assessment of Heat Waves: A Review[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2019, 21(7): 1029-1039.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2019.180544

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