青藏高原旅游经济与生态环境协调效应测度及 交互胁迫关系验证

doi:10.12082/dqxxkx.2019.190279

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

青藏高原地区壮美的自然风光、神奇的人文景观和独特的民族文化,使其成为国内外旅游者倾心向往的世外桃源,亟需进一步探究其旅游经济与生态环境之间的交互耦合关系。本文创建青藏高原旅游经济与生态环境综合评价指标体系,采用青海省和西藏自治区15个地市州2000-2017年面板数据探究旅游经济与生态环境协调效应及交互胁迫关系。结果显示： ① 2000-2017年青藏高原仅有拉萨和西宁旅游经济指数呈现快速增长趋势,其余地市州均呈现缓慢增长趋势,生态环境指数整体较高,仅有西宁和海东呈现波动增长趋势,其余地市州变化平缓;② 青藏高原旅游经济与生态环境复合系统协调度时序上呈现波动增长趋势,空间上呈现南高北低、东高西低的分布格局;青海呈现以西宁为核心,逐层向外递减的核心-边缘空间格局;西藏呈现以拉萨为中心,南高北低的空间格局;③ 青藏高原复合系统协同效应子类型主要是旅游经济滞后型,西宁和拉萨呈现“旅游经济滞后-系统均衡发展-生态环境滞后”的变化趋势;④ 基于双指数模型证实了青藏高原旅游经济与生态环境之间具有交互胁迫关系。

关键词: 青藏高原, 旅游经济, 生态环境, 协调度, 交互胁迫关系, 青海, 西藏

Abstract:

The magnificent natural scenery, magical cutrual landscape, and unique ethnic culture have made the Tibetan Plateau a paradise for tourists from home and abroad, and it is urgent to further explore the interactive coupling relationship between tourism economy and ecological environment. This paper constructed a comprehensive index system for assessing the tourism economy and eco-environment system in the Tibetan Plateau, and usedthe panel data of 15 cities and states in Qinghai Province and Tibet Autonomous Region from 2000 to 2017 to examine the coordination effect and interactive stress between tourism economy and eco-environment system. Results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2017, only Lhasa and Xining's tourism economyindex showed a rapid growth trend, while the other cities and states showed a slow growth trend. The overall eco-environment index of the Tibetan Plateau was relatively high, only Xining and Haidong showed a fluctuating growth trend, while the other cities and states showed gentle changes; (2) The coordination between the tourism economy and the eco-environment in Tibetan Plateau manifested a fluctuating growth trend over time, and presented a core-peripheryspatial pattern of "high in the south and low in the north, high in the east and low in the west" in Qinghai (with Xining as the core) and Tibet (with Lhasa as the core). (3) The dominant type of synergistic effects of the composite system in the Tibetan Plateauis" tourism economy lagging behind eco-environment." Lhasa and Xining both show the trend of thee stages: tourism economy lagging behind eco-environment-balanced development of the two systems eco-environment lagging behind tourism economy; (4) Based on the double-exponential coupling function relation model, it was confirmed that there was interactive stressbetween the tourism economy and eco-environment in the Tibetan Plateau.

Key words: Tibetan Plateau, tourism economy, eco-environment, coordination degree, interactive stress

王振波,梁龙武,褚昕阳,李嘉欣. 青藏高原旅游经济与生态环境协调效应测度及交互胁迫关系验证[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2019, 21(9): 1352-1366.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2019.190279

WANG Zhenbo,LIANG Longwu,CHU Xinyang,LI Jiaxin. Examining the Coordination Effect and Interactive Stress between Tourism Economy and Eco-environment in the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2019, 21(9): 1352-1366.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2019.190279

图/表 10

表1

旅游经济与生态环境系统协调发展类型划分原则

综合类别	协调度水平	亚类别	系统指数值对比	子类别	类型
协调发展	$0.9 < D ≤ 1$	高级协调	$G y - F x > 0.1$	旅游经济滞后	Ⅷ1
			$G y - F x ≤ 0.1$	系统均衡发展	Ⅷ2
			$G y - F x < - 0.1$	生态环境滞后	Ⅷ3
	$0.8 < D ≤ 0.9$	良好协调	$G y - F x > 0.1$	旅游经济滞后	Ⅶ1
			$G y - F x ≤ 0.1$	系统均衡发展	Ⅶ2
			$G y - F x < - 0.1$	生态环境滞后	Ⅶ3
	$0.7 < D ≤ 0.8$	中级协调	$G y - F x > 0.1$	旅游经济滞后	Ⅵ1
			$G y - F x ≤ 0.1$	系统均衡发展	Ⅵ2
			$G y - F x < - 0.1$	生态环境滞后	Ⅵ3
转型发展	$0.6 < D ≤ 0.7$	初级协调	$G y - F x > 0.1$	旅游经济滞后	Ⅴ1
			$G y - F x ≤ 0.1$	系统均衡发展	Ⅴ2
			$G y - F x < - 0.1$	生态环境滞后	Ⅴ3
	$0.5 < D ≤ 0.6$	勉强协调	$G y - F x > 0.1$	旅游经济滞后	Ⅳ1
			$G y - F x ≤ 0.1$	系统均衡发展	Ⅳ2
			$G y - F x < - 0.1$	生态环境滞后	Ⅳ3
	$0.4 < D ≤ 0.5$	濒临失调	$G y - F x > 0.1$	旅游经济滞后	Ⅲ1
			$G y - F x ≤ 0.1$	系统均衡发展	Ⅲ2
			$G y - F x < - 0.1$	生态环境滞后	Ⅲ3
不协调发展	$0.2 < D ≤ 0.4$	中度失调	$G y - F x > 0.1$	旅游经济滞后	Ⅱ1
			$G y - F x ≤ 0.1$	系统均衡发展	Ⅱ2
			$G y - F x < - 0.1$	生态环境滞后	Ⅱ3
	$0 < D ≤ 0.2$	严重失调	$G y - F x > 0.1$	旅游经济滞后	Ⅰ1
			$G y - F x ≤ 0.1$	系统均衡发展	Ⅰ2
			$G y - F x < - 0.1$	生态环境滞后	Ⅰ3

表1

图1

表2

图2

表3

2000-2017年青藏高原地市州旅游经济与生态环境协调度指数值

地市州	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
西宁	0.371	0.365	0.388	0.407	0.445	0.453	0.468	0.501	0.512	0.518	0.517	0.537	0.558	0.575	0.662	0.676	0.726	0.764
海东	0.287	0.300	0.301	0.306	0.306	0.307	0.332	0.339	0.345	0.367	0.380	0.400	0.422	0.424	0.436	0.457	0.472	0.491
海北	0.295	0.335	0.360	0.369	0.386	0.397	0.419	0.437	0.473	0.460	0.479	0.510	0.530	0.553	0.573	0.608	0.634	0.670
海南	0.310	0.360	0.400	0.447	0.447	0.474	0.474	0.463	0.504	0.530	0.545	0.543	0.563	0.550	0.556	0.575	0.609	0.630
黄南	0.321	0.415	0.434	0.472	0.473	0.462	0.456	0.463	0.461	0.489	0.486	0.503	0.493	0.543	0.562	0.592	0.619	0.649
果洛	0.310	0.358	0.386	0.406	0.421	0.432	0.435	0.439	0.444	0.441	0.432	0.426	0.417	0.409	0.404	0.425	0.448	0.469
玉树	0.327	0.318	0.320	0.356	0.376	0.381	0.380	0.379	0.389	0.385	0.370	0.395	0.398	0.398	0.378	0.407	0.453	0.466
海西	0.182	0.179	0.205	0.259	0.293	0.315	0.330	0.312	0.355	0.353	0.377	0.391	0.410	0.432	0.426	0.484	0.529	0.575
拉萨	0.407	0.389	0.397	0.473	0.530	0.589	0.624	0.669	0.566	0.647	0.682	0.702	0.697	0.729	0.763	0.801	0.828	0.861
昌都	0.443	0.470	0.491	0.506	0.515	0.516	0.524	0.529	0.509	0.530	0.565	0.553	0.546	0.539	0.542	0.540	0.554	0.568
山南	0.490	0.495	0.508	0.515	0.521	0.519	0.522	0.521	0.497	0.512	0.514	0.514	0.494	0.510	0.551	0.586	0.614	0.645
日喀则	0.520	0.546	0.572	0.589	0.605	0.617	0.619	0.619	0.613	0.633	0.635	0.632	0.627	0.627	0.627	0.631	0.652	0.664
那曲	0.160	0.171	0.191	0.199	0.214	0.233	0.246	0.261	0.227	0.283	0.306	0.308	0.311	0.328	0.313	0.322	0.329	0.365
阿里	0.189	0.202	0.218	0.218	0.227	0.218	0.245	0.256	0.239	0.297	0.316	0.331	0.344	0.354	0.364	0.378	0.395	0.409
林芝	0.309	0.319	0.367	0.347	0.367	0.390	0.444	0.480	0.423	0.538	0.561	0.569	0.600	0.605	0.648	0.668	0.685	0.697
平均值	0.328	0.348	0.369	0.391	0.408	0.420	0.435	0.445	0.437	0.465	0.478	0.488	0.494	0.505	0.520	0.543	0.570	0.595

表3

图3

图4

Tab. 4

表5

图5

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系统	子系统	评价指标	单位	序号	性质	AHP法权重	熵值法权重	综合权重
旅游经济	旅游经济效益	旅游外汇收入	万美元	x₁	+	0.367	0.518	0.441
	旅游经济效益	旅游国内收入	亿元	x₂	+	0.633	0.482	0.559
	旅游市场规模	国际旅游者数量	万人	x₃	+	0.481	0.201	0.325
	旅游市场规模	国内旅游者数量	万人	x₄	+	0.519	0.799	0.675
	旅游产业水平	旅游总收入/GDP	-	x₅	+	0.419	0.696	0.562
	旅游产业水平	旅游总收入/第三产业产值	-	x₆	+	0.581	0.304	0.438
生态环境	生态环境状态	林地破坏率	-	y₁	+	0.324	0.484	0.404
		草场退化率	-	y₂	+	0.398	0.101	0.250
		湿地破损度	-	y₃	+	0.278	0.415	0.346
	生态环境压力	PM_2.5浓度	ug/m³	y₄	-	0.328	0.236	0.282
		CO₂排放量	万t	y₅	-	0.297	0.087	0.192
		景观破碎度	-	y₆	-	0.375	0.677	0.526

地区	双指数关系方程式	m值	n值	a值	b值	p值
西宁	Z=0.520-0.388(10⁽^y^{-0.643)/0.289}-0.822)²	0.573	0.388	0.289	0.643	0.822
海东	Z=0.312-0.071(10⁽^y^{-0.029)/1.139}-0.532)²	0.312	0.071	1.139	-0.029	0.532
海北	Z=0.631-0.799(10⁽^y^{-0.987)/0.341}-0.130)²	0.631	0.799	0.341	0.987	0.130
海南	Z=0.593-0.013(10⁽^y^{-0.532)/0.626}-0.069)²	0.593	0.013	0.626	0.532	0.069
黄南	Z=0.657-0.682(10⁽^y^{-0.596)/1.188}-0.538)²	0.657	0.682	1.188	0.596	0.538
果洛	Z=0.539-0.144(10⁽^y^{-0.357)/0.457}-0.373)²	0.539	0.144	0.457	0.357	0.373
玉树	Z=0.637-0.616(10⁽^y^{-0.946)/0.049}-0.494)²	0.637	0.616	0.049	0.946	0.494
海西	Z=0.922-565(10⁽^y^{-1.095)/1.662}-0.666)²	0.922	0.565	1.662	1.095	-0.666
拉萨	Z=0.587+0.555(10⁽^y^{-1.424)/0.646}-0.108)²	0.587	-0.555	0.646	1.424	0.108
昌都	Z=0.482+0.355(10^{(y-0.578)/0.380}-0.233)²	0.482	-0.355	0.380	0.578	0.233
山南	Z=0.699-0.589(10⁽^y^{-0.294)/0.315}-0.587)²	0.699	0.589	0.315	0.294	0.587
日喀则	Z=0.618-0.284(10⁽^y^{-0.495)/0.897}-0.426)²	0.618	0.284	0.897	0.495	0.426
那曲	Z=0.599-0.640(10⁽^y^{-1.394)/0.339}-0.018)²	0.599	0.640	0.339	1.394	0.018
阿里	Z=0.617-0.162(10⁽^y^{-1.237)/0.682}-0.041)²	0.617	0.162	0.682	1.237	0.041
林芝	Z=0.693-0.520(10⁽^y^{-0.364)/0.108}-0.558)²	0.693	0.520	0.108	0.364	0.558