地球信息科学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (11): 2102-2114.doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2022.220219
肖中圣1(), 许奇1,2, 毛保华2(
), 魏润斌1, 冯佳1,2
收稿日期:
2022-04-23
修回日期:
2022-05-16
出版日期:
2022-11-25
发布日期:
2023-01-25
通讯作者:
*毛保华(1963- ),男,湖南祁阳人,博士,教授,主要从事综合交通研究。E-mail: bhmao@bjtu.edu.cm作者简介:
肖中圣(1995- ),男,重庆梁平人,博士研究生,主要从事公共交通与土地利用关系研究。E-mail: 18114047@bjtu.edu.cn
基金资助:
XIAO Zhongsheng1(), XU Qi1,2, MAO Baohua2(
), WEI Runbin1, FENG Jia1,2
Received:
2022-04-23
Revised:
2022-05-16
Online:
2022-11-25
Published:
2023-01-25
Contact:
MAO Baohua
Supported by:
摘要:
行程时间不确定性导致了可达性随时间的变化,相关研究表明忽略行程时间不确定性会高估可达性水平。既有可达性研究往往用行程时间可靠性表示行程时间不确定性,但未考虑不同可达性模型结果的差异以及行程时间可靠性价值。本文结合各OD之间的行程时间分布特征,构建方差型的行程时间可靠性来描述行程时间不确定性,并进一步将行程时间可靠性纳入到广义出行时间成本中,建立了时间距离模型、潜力模型、累计机会模型和高斯模型4种基于位置的可达性测算方法,以比较在不同测算方法下,行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响。深圳的案例研究表明:① 忽略行程时间不确定性会使全区域的可达性至少被高估5.04%,最大被高估95.04%。潜力模型、时间距离模型、累计机会模型和高斯模型的高估幅度由低到高;② 行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响存在阈值效应,阈值越高,可达性受影响的程度越小;③ 从空间分布来看,行程时间不确定性对可达性水平高和低的区域都有一定影响。若不考虑行程时间不确定性,可达性高的区域高估值大,而在可达性低的区域,可达性高估的百分比较大,高估百分比中位数的差异程度最大可达77.1%;④ 行程时间不确定性对潜力模型可达性分类的影响最小,对累计机会模型差异的影响最大。可达性使用者应充分考虑研究区域实际情况,结合可解释性与理论性偏好,进而选择合适的可达性模型和评判标准。
肖中圣, 许奇, 毛保华, 魏润斌, 冯佳. 不同测算方法下行程时间不确定性对可达性的影响分析[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2022, 24(11): 2102-2114.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2022.220219
XIAO Zhongsheng, XU Qi, MAO Baohua, WEI Runbin, FENG Jia. The Impact of Travel Time Uncertainty on Accessibility under Different Measurements[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2022, 24(11): 2102-2114.DOI:10.12082/dqxxkx.2022.220219
表1
不同阈值和不同模型下的平均可达性
模型类别 | 是否考虑行程时间 不确定性(Y/N) | 广义出行时间成本阈值/min | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
45 | 60 | 75 | 90 | 115 | 120 | ||
时间距离模型 | Y | 0.3440 | 0.3440 | 0.3440 | 0.3440 | 0.3440 | 0.3440 |
N | 0.3748 | 0.3748 | 0.3748 | 0.3748 | 0.3748 | 0.3748 | |
潜力模型 | Y | 31.92 | 31.92 | 31.92 | 31.92 | 31.92 | 31.92 |
N | 33.84 | 33.84 | 33.84 | 33.84 | 33.84 | 33.84 | |
高斯模型 | Y | 61.43 | 401.46 | 1179.76 | 2490.61 | 4611.32 | 7439.09 |
N | 112.40 | 569.11 | 1554.64 | 3228.35 | 5722.88 | 9075.45 | |
累计机会模型 | Y | 349 | 1685 | 4346 | 8542 | 14 902 | 22 803 |
N | 581 | 2252 | 5501 | 10 716 | 18 018 | 27 184 |
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