基于综合承载力的北京市适度人口研究

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01495

地球信息科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (11): 1495-1503.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01495

• 地理空间分析综合应用 • 上一篇下一篇

基于综合承载力的北京市适度人口研究

林晓娟^1,²(), 房世峰^1,^*(), 杜加强^3,⁴, 吴骅¹, 窦馨逸⁵, 岳杙筱²

1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京 100101
2. 西华师范大学国土资源学院南充 637002
3. 中国环境科学研究院生态环境研究所,北京 100012
4. 中国环境科学研究院环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京 100012
5. 西北大学城市与环境学院,西安 710127

收稿日期:2017-06-05 修回日期:2017-08-23 出版日期:2017-11-10 发布日期:2017-11-10
作者简介:
作者简介：林晓娟（1996-）,女,本科生,研究方向为地理空间分析与系统模拟研究。E-mail: lxj1217@foxmail.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（U1503184、41201097）;“中国科学院大学生创新实践训练计划”项目（201717001991）

Study on Optimum Population of Beijing Based on the Comprehensive Carrying Capacity

LIN Xiaojuan^1,²(), FANG Shifeng^1,^*(), DU Jiaqiang^3,⁴, WU Hua¹, DOU Xinyi⁵, YUE Yixiao²

1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2. Land and Resources School, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China
3. Institute of Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
4. State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
5. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China

Received:2017-06-05 Revised:2017-08-23 Online:2017-11-10 Published:2017-11-10
Contact: FANG Shifeng

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

北京作为中国的政治、经济和文化中心,资源短缺、交通拥堵和生态环境恶化等问题日益严重,确定其适度人口规模,对引导区域人口合理流动和环境保护具有一定的现实意义。本文基于综合承载力,对已有的适度人口模型进行了改进：利用主成分分析法和熵权法确定生态、经济和资源承载系统的权重;经济承载人口测算指标不局限于地区生产总值（GDP）这一单一指标;资源承载人口综合考虑了土地资源和水资源承载力。本文通过综合分析2004-2014年北京各项承载人口和适度人口,结果表明：① 生态承载人口规模在波动中有增长的趋势,由717.38万人上升至753.14万人,一直处于人口超载状态;② 经济承载人口一直处于富余状态,但规模由5297.18万人减少至3802.06万人。第三产业产值所承载的人口对经济承载人口的贡献最大,在2014年达到65.15%;③ 资源承载人口规模处于波动状态,2014年为139.61万人,超载率逐年增加。土地资源承载力对资源承载人口的贡献大于水资源,2014年贡献率达79.91%;④ 北京市适度人口规模从2004年的2031.15万人减少至2014年的1550.67万人,2008年开始出现人口赤字,且人口超载率逐年攀升。经济承载人口对适度人口贡献率维持在80%以上,生态和资源承载人口的贡献率平均值分别为14%和3%。人口资源压力指数在波动中有上升的趋势,从2004年的9.45上升至2014年的15.41,资源约束已经成为阻碍城市发展的主要因素,经济承载力是维持适度人口规模缓慢减小的主要动力。

关键词: 综合承载力, 适度人口, 主成分分析法, 熵权法, 北京市

Abstract:

The study of optimum population size based on urban comprehensive carrying capacity has always been a hot issue in population geography. With the accelerating of China's urbanization, the population is gathering continuously in the city while environmental pollution, traffic jams and other "city diseases" have become increasingly prominent. City sustainable development is restricted by social economic factors and natural resources factors which is an important guarantee to maintain the population quantity in the range of carrying capacity. The concept of UCC (Urban Carrying Capacity) provides a powerful theoretical basis and quantitative means for government planning and calculating the optimum population size. As the political, economic and cultural center of China, the shortage of resources, traffic jam and deterioration of ecological environment are becoming more and more serious in Beijing. It's significant to determine the scale of optimum population for guiding the population floating and environment protection. However, the research results about optimum population scale of Beijing are few. Based on comprehensive carrying capacity, this paper constructed an appropriate population measurement model and synthetically analysed the scale of optimum population and carrying population of Beijing from 2004 to 2014. Results indicated that: (1) The scale of ecological carrying population which is in a state of population overload has an increasing trend; (2) Economic carrying population scale has been decreasing for 15 years. The output value of tertiary industry contributed most which reached 65.15% in 2014; (3)Resources carrying population scale is in a state of fluctuation while its overload rate increased year by year. The contribution of land resources carrying capacity is greater than that of water resources which reached 79.91% in 2014; (4) From 2004 to 2014, the optimum population size of Beijing decreased from 20.31 million to 15.51 million and start a demographic deficit in 2008. Considering its contribution factor, resource constraint has become the main factor hindering the development of Beijing, and the economic carrying capacity is the main driving force to maintain the appropriate population size. The conclusions of this study can provide a reference for the formulation of rational population management decisions and urban sustainable development planning.

Key words: comprehensive carrying capacity, optimum population, principal component analysis, entropy weight, Beijing

林晓娟, 房世峰, 杜加强, 吴骅, 窦馨逸, 岳杙筱. 基于综合承载力的北京市适度人口研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2017, 19(11): 1495-1503.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01495

LIN Xiaojuan,FANG Shifeng,DU Jiaqiang,WU Hua,DOU Xinyi,YUE Yixiao. Study on Optimum Population of Beijing Based on the Comprehensive Carrying Capacity[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017, 19(11): 1495-1503.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01495

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类型	名称	内容	单位	类型	名称	内容	单位
资源承载系统	X₁	用水总量	亿m³	经济承载系统	X₁₄	第三产业占GRP比重	%
	X₂	水资源总量	亿m³		X₁₅	全社会固定资产投资额	亿元
	X₃	人均水资源量	m³		X₁₆	城镇居民恩格尔系数	%
	X₄	人均用水量	m³		X₁₇	社会消费品零售总额	亿元
	X₅	万元产值耗水量	m³		X₁₈	城镇居民人均可支配收入	元
	X₆	年末耕地总资源	hm²		X₂₅	常住人口	万人
	X₇	人均建设用地面积	km²		X₂₆	城镇人口	万人
	X₈	人均城市道路面积	m²	生态承载系统	X₁₉	人均绿地面积	m²
	X₉	人均耕地面积	m²		X₂₀	森林覆盖率	%
	X₁₀	建设用地面积	km²		X₂₁		工业废水排放量	万t
经济承载系统	X₁₁	人均GRP	元/人		X₂₂	工业烟尘排放量	t
经济承载系统	X₁₂	GRP	亿元	X₂₃		工业SO₂排放量	t
	X₁₃	地区生产总值增长率	%	X₂₄	城市环境设施投资额	万元

变量	主成份
变量	C₁	C₂	C₃
用水总量X₁	0.517	0.791	-0.133
水资源总量X₂	0.312	0.048	0.927
人均水资源量X₃	-0.088	-0.353	0.902
人均用水量X₄	-0.822	-0.554	-0.056
万元产值耗水量X₅	-0.858	-0.500	-0.036
年末耕地总资源X₆	-0.671	-0.717	0.010
人均建设用地面积X₇	-0.848	-0.296	-0.153
人均城市道路面积X₈	-0.731	-0.055	-0.039
人均耕地面积X₉	-0.785	-0.614	-0.022
建设用地面积X₁₀	0.594	0.770	-0.082
人均GRP X₁₁	0.691	0.713	-0.001
GRP X₁₂	0.648	0.756	-0.006
地区GDP增长率X₁₃	-0.551	-0.629	-0.234
三产占GRP比重X₁₄	0.882	0.334	-0.058
固定资产投资额X₁₅	0.661	0.743	-0.067
恩格尔系数X₁₆	0.180	-0.696	0.254
消费品零售总额X₁₇	0.625	0.778	-0.003
人均可支配收入X₁₈	0.629	0.767	-0.030
人均绿地面积X₁₉	0.413	0.616	-0.503
森林覆盖率X₂₀	0.589	0.726	-0.188
工业废水排放量X₂₁	-0.980	0.047	-0.013
工业烟尘排放量X₂₂	-0.034	0.656	0.499
工业SO₂排放量X₂₃	-0.900	-0.392	0.019
环境设施投资额X₂₄	0.277	0.835	-0.245
常住人口X₂₅	0.736	0.673	0.019
城镇人口X₂₆	0.761	0.645	0.014

年份	生态承载力/万hm²	人均生态足迹/hm²	生态承载人口/万人	富余或超载状态	富余或超载率
2004	284.46	0.40	717.38	超载	-0.52
2005	285.89	0.43	669.68	超载	-0.56
2006	291.90	0.42	699.53	超载	-0.56
2007	306.84	0.44	692.58	超载	-0.59
2008	301.00	0.46	657.01	超载	-0.63
2009	309.82	0.47	662.45	超载	-0.64
2010	314.49	0.42	754.70	超载	-0.62
2011	318.64	0.43	742.33	超载	-0.63
2012	329.94	0.44	753.55	超载	-0.64
2013	319.18	0.44	731.60	超载	-0.65
2014	304.20	0.40	753.14	超载	-0.65

年份	GRP承载人口/万人	第二产业承载人口/万人	第三产业承载人口/万人	经济承载人口/万人	富余或超载状态	富余或超载率
2004	7378.36	3262.53	8045.27	5297.18	富余	2.55
2005	4937.29	3027.31	8267.04	4588.35	富余	1.98
2006	4914.05	2775.02	8440.02	4396.64	富余	1.75
2007	4843.25	2633.07	8327.31	4247.22	富余	1.53
2008	4631.08	2325.10	8218.55	3907.79	富余	1.21
2009	4700.29	2370.73	8019.59	3951.23	富余	1.12
2010	4648.32	2361.94	7912.36	3922.10	富余	1.00
2011	4565.91	2218.34	7810.78	3760.20	富余	0.86
2012	4543.20	2233.77	7671.22	3758.74	富余	0.82
2013	4619.94	2274.45	7570.18	3806.06	富余	0.80
2014	4601.69	2287.45	7431.34	3802.06	富余	0.77

年份	土地资源承载人口/万人	水资源承载人口/万人	资源承载人口/万人	富余或超载状态	富余或超载率
2004	251.00	115.28	158.00	超载	-0.89
2005	249.98	108.14	150.97	超载	-0.90
2006	251.00	114.69	157.44	超载	-0.90
2007	252.02	124.52	166.68	超载	-0.90
2008	252.79	165.55	200.08	超载	-0.89
2009	223.92	120.53	156.71	超载	-0.92
2010	221.83	100.22	138.07	超载	-0.93
2011	221.13	155.32	182.47	超载	-0.91
2012	221.26	181.14	199.20	超载	-0.90
2013	222.64	120.75	156.58	超载	-0.93
2014	223.13	101.58	139.61	超载	-0.94

基于综合承载力的北京市适度人口研究

Study on Optimum Population of Beijing Based on the Comprehensive Carrying Capacity

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年份	适度人口/万人	富余或超载人数/万人	富余或超载状态	富余或超载率
2004	2031.15	538.45	富余	0.36
2005	1780.98	242.98	富余	0.16
2006	1731.15	130.15	富余	0.08
2007	1682.94	6.94	富余	0.00
2008	1570.39	-200.61	超载	-0.11
2009	1572.61	-287.39	超载	-0.15
2010	1589.85	-372.05	超载	-0.19
2011	1546.90	-471.70	超载	-0.23
2012	1555.74	-513.56	超载	-0.25
2013	1549.77	-565.03	超载	-0.27
2014	1550.67	-600.93	超载	-0.28

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