基于洪峰模数的山洪灾害雨量预警指标研究

doi:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01643

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

山洪灾害预警是防御山洪的重要非工程措施,雨量预警指标是山洪灾害预警的关键。目前的雨量预警指标计算方法对水文气象资料条件以及模型建模率定都有很高的要求,并不适用于基层防汛人员。因此,本文基于全国山洪灾害调查评价成果数据,提出了一种运用洪峰模数计算雨量预警指标的简便、易用的方法。该方法以小流域洪水计算推理公式为基础,将公式中流量与流域面积的比值用洪峰模数表示,得到基于洪峰模数的临界雨量估算公式,并考虑流域土壤含水量等因素,分析临界雨量变化阈值,最终得到雨量预警指标。本文以云南省绥江县双河小流域为例,计算结果显示不同时段（1 h、3 h、6 h）净雨量和预警时段呈线性关系。降雨损失计算中洼地蓄水和植被截留在不同时段相同,土壤下渗在不同的时段不相同。在此基础上,计算不同土壤含水量条件下,不同时段的雨量预警指标。最后,对临界流量、降雨损失和预警指标进行了合理性分析,结果显示预警指标和调查评价结果及实测降雨都比较接近,计算的预警指标合理。本研究为基层山洪灾害预警提供了一种快速、便捷的预警指标计算方法,为预警指标计算提供技术支持。

关键词: 洪峰模数, 雨量预警指标, 山洪, 云南省, 双河小流域

Abstract:

Flash flood early warning is an important non-structural measure for flash flood prevention in China. Also, rainfall threshold is the key for flash flood early warning. At present, the method of calculating rainfall thresholds need a large amount of meteorological and hydrological data. Meanwhile, building the hydrological model and calibrating parameters are difficult, which are not suitable for the flood control personnel. A simple and easy method, using flood peak modulus to calculate rainfall threshold, was proposed in this study based on national flash flood investigation and evaluation results. Rational equation is the basis of the calculation method. The flood peak modulus in rational equation is expressed as a ratio of the flow to watershed area. Then, the critical rainfall formula is obtained. Using the Manning formula and national investigation and evaluation results, the flood peak modulus on the condition of critical flow is obtained, and the net rainfall is calculated. Based on the research results of the scholars, three aspects about the rainfall loss calculation are considered. They are depression storage, vegetation interception and soil infiltration. The sum of the net rainfall and the rainfall loss is the critical rainfall. Considering the factors such as soil water content of watershed, the rainfall threshold was finally obtained. In order to demonstrate this method, Shuanghe catchment in Suijiang County of Yunnan Province was chosen as the study area, of which the area is 89.12 km². The calculated concentration time was 5.2 h. Thus, the duration was estimated to be 1 h, 3 h, and 6 h. The results indicated there was a linear correlation between the net rain amount and different rainfall durations. Depression storage and canopy interception was invariant during different rainfall durations, but the infiltration was variable. For 1 h duration, initial infiltration was the main factor to consider; for 3 h, both initial infiltration and mid-term infiltration were considered; and for 6 h, steady infiltration also needed consideration besides the initial and medium-term infiltration. The calculated critical rainfall for 1 h, 3 h, and 6 h were 38.6 mm, 64.8 mm, and 96.9 mm, respectively. Rainfall thresholds of different durations for flash flood early warning were estimated on basis of critical rainfall considering three different soil moisture conditions. Under dry soil moisture condition, large rainfall loss leads to a large rainfall threshold; under wet soil moisture condition, contrary to the dry condition, small rainfall threshold is caused by small rainfall loss; and under medium soil moisture condition, the rainfall threshold was in medium. The rationality analysis on critical runoff, rainfall losses, and rainfall threshold was carried out in the end of this study. The results showed the calculated rainfall threshold by flood peak modulus method was approximated to the rainfall threshold obtained from national flash flood investigation and evaluation project. Also, they are in accord with the observed rainfall during flash flood events. Thus, the calculated results are reasonable in this study. This study provided a quick and convenient way of calculating rainfall threshold of flash flood warning for the grass root staffs and offered technical support for estimating rainfall threshold correctly.

Key words: flood peak modulus, rainfall threshold, flash flood early warning, Yunnan province, the watershed of Shuanghe

李青, 王雅莉, 李海辰, 张淼, 李昌志, 陈星. 基于洪峰模数的山洪灾害雨量预警指标研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2017, 19(12): 1643-1652.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01643

LI Qing,WANG Yali,LI Haichen,ZHANG Miao,LI Changzhi,CHEN Xing. Rainfall Threshold for Flash Flood Early Warning Based on Flood Peak Modulus[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2017, 19(12): 1643-1652.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2017.01643

图/表 23

图1

表1

表2

表3

表4

图2

图3

图4

图5

表5

表6

表7

表8

表9

图6

表1

表3

表4

表1

参考文献 22

[1]	World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Flash flood forecasting, operational hydrology report: No.18,(WMO-No.577)[M]. Geneva:WMO.47,1981.
[2]	World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Guide to hydrological practices (WMO-No.168).Volume Ⅱ[M]. Geneva:WMO.765,1994.
[3]	孙东亚,张红萍.欧美山洪灾害防治研究进展及实践[J].中国水利,2012(23):16-17.
	[ Sun D Y, Zhang H P.Research progress and practice of flash flood prevention in Europe and America[J]. China Water Resources, 2012,23:16-17. ]
[4]	陈桂亚,袁雅鸣.山洪灾害临界雨量分析计算方法研究[J].人民长江,2004,36(4):40-43. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4179.2005.12.016
	[ Chen G Y, Yuan Y M.Research on critical precipitation amount computation method of mountain torrential flood disaster[J]. Yangtze River, 2004,36(4):40-43. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4179.2005.12.016
[5]	李红霞,覃光华,王欣,等.山洪预报预警技术研究进展[J].水文,2014,34(5):12-16. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2014.05.003
	[ Li H X, Qin G H, Wang X, et al.Advances in study on flash flood forecast and warning[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2014,34(5):12-16. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2014.05.003
[6]	程卫帅. 山洪灾害临界雨量研究综述[J].水科学进展,2013,24(6):901-908.
	[ Cheng W S.A review of rainfall thresholds for triggering flash floods[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2013,24(6):901-908. ]
[7]	Hapuarachchi H, Wang Q J, Pagano T C.A review of advances in flash flood forecasting[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2011,25(18):2771-2784. doi: 10.1002/hyp.8040
[8]	Norbiato D, Borga M, Dinale R.Flash flood warning in ungauged basins by use of the flash flood guidance and model-based runoff thresholds[J]. Meteorological Applications, 2009,16(1):65-75. doi: 10.1002/met.126
[9]	李昌志,郭良.山洪临界雨量确定方法述评[J].中国防汛抗旱,2013(6):23-28. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-9264.2013.06.010
	[ Li C Z, Guo L.Methods of rainfall indicator for flash flood[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2013,6:23-28. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-9264.2013.06.010
[10]	刘志雨. 山洪预警预报技术研究与应用[J].中国防汛抗旱,2012,22(2):41-45.
	[ Liu Z Y.Research and application of flash flood warning and forecasting technology[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2012,22(2):41-45. ]
[11]	郭良,刘昌军,丁留谦,等.开展全国山洪灾害调查评价的工作设想[J].中国水利,2012(23):10-12.
	[ Guo L, Liu C J, Ding L Q, et al.Working plan for mountain flood investigation and evaluation in China[J]. China Water Resources, 2012,23:10-12. ]
[12]	陈家琦,张恭肃.小流域暴雨洪水计算[M].北京:水利水电出版社,1983.
	[ Chen J Q, Zhang G S.Storm flood calculation of small basin[M]. Beijing: Water Power Press, 1983. ]
[13]	詹道江,叶守泽.工程水文学[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2000.
	[ Zhan D J, Ye S Z.Project application of hydrology[M]. Beijing: China Water Power Press, 2000. ]
[14]	谢平,陈广才,李德,等.乌鲁木齐地区小流域设计山洪推理公式的参数规律[J].山地学报, 2006,24(4):410-415.
	[ Xie P, Chen G C, Li D, et al.Study on the parameter laws of rational formula for designed flash flood calculation of small basins in Gurmukhi Region[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2006,24(4):410-415. ]
[15]	段生荣. 典型小流域山洪灾害临界雨量计算分析[J].水利规划与设计,2009(2):20-21. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-2469.2009.02.008
	[ Duan S R.Calculation of rainfall threshold in flash flood of typical small watershed[J]. Water Resources Planning and Design, 2009,2:20-21. ] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-2469.2009.02.008
[16]	徐在庸. 山洪及其防治[M].北京:水利出版社,1981.
	[ Xu Z Y.Flash flood and prevention[M]. Beijing: Water Press, 1981. ]
[17]	李光敦. 水文学[M].中国台北:五南图书出版社,2005.
	[ Li G D.Hydrology[M]. Chinese Taibei: Wu-Nan Book Inc, 2005. ]
[18]	国家防汛抗旱总指挥部办公室,中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所. 山洪泥石流滑坡灾害及防治[M].北京:科学出版社,1994.
	[ Office of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment. Mountain torrents, debris flow, landslide disaster and preventions[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 1994. ]
[19]	李向新,和红强. HEC-HMS水文建模系统原理方法应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2015.
	[ Li X X, He H Q.HEC-HMS hydrological modeling principle, method, and application[M]. Beijing: China Water & Power Press, 2015. ]
[20]	云南省水利水电厅.云南省暴雨洪水查算实用手册[M].Kunming,1992.
	[ Yunnan Provincial Water Resources Department. Practical handbook for rainstorm and flood calculation in Yunnan[M]. Kunming, 1992. ]
[21]	Miao Q, Yang D, Yang H, et al.Establishing a rainfall threshold for flash flood warnings in China’s mountainous areas based on a distributed hydrological model[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2016,541:371-386. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.054
[22]	陈瑜彬,杨文发,许银山.不同土壤含水量的动态临界雨量拟定方法研究[J].人民长江,2015(12):21-26. doi: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2015.12.006
	[ Chen Y B, Yang W F, Xu Y S.Study of dynamic critical precipitation drafted method under different soil moisture content levels[J]. Yangtze River, 2015,12:21-26. ] doi: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2015.12.006

洼地描述	蓄水量/mm	备注
非常不平的地面	15	当山坡坡度在100‰以下时,可采用上述数值;当山坡坡度在100~300‰之间,上述截流水量应减少30%;当山坡坡度>300‰时,上述截流水量应减少50%
一般的地面、铺砌面	10
极平坦的地面、沥青面	3

土壤类型		描述	损失率范围/（mm/h）
沙土	A	较厚的沙地、黄土以及聚合的泥沙	7.62~11.43
沙壤土	B	较浅的砂质黄土、砂壤土、壤土	3.81~7.62
壤土、粘土	C	粘质壤土、浅砂质壤土、低有机物含量的土壤、高粘土含量的土壤	1.27~3.81
湿土、盐碱土	D	因湿润、高塑性粘土含量、或高含盐量而明显膨胀的土壤	0~1.27

村落名称	历时/min	重现期雨量值（Hp）
村落名称	历时/min	100年（H1%）	50年（H2%）	20年（H5%）	10年（H10%）	5年（H20%）
双河村双1组	10	29.6	27.0	23.3	20.5	17.4
	60	90.9	81.6	69.1	59.3	49.1
	360	160.7	142.4	118.1	99.3	80.0
	180	128.6	114.6	95.8	81.2	66.1

时段序号	5年一遇重现期雨量值
时段序号	1 h	3 h	6 h
1	34.3	49.4	47.0
2	41.9	59.5	61.9
3	45.6	66.1	68.2
4	49.1	-	72.8
5	-	-	76.7
6	-	-	80.0

过水面积A				湿周L
A1	A2	A		L1	L2	L3	L4	L5	L
25	19.6	44.6		8.06	2.24	6.14	6.14	8	30.6