洪涝灾害是我国影响范围最广、持续时间最长、造成损失最大的一类自然灾害。暴雨是洪涝灾害的最主要致灾因素,所以,暴雨洪涝灾害风险预警研究是洪涝灾害防灾减灾的重要基础。本文立足洪涝灾害应急管理工作要求,对洪涝灾害系统空间仿真模拟研究模式进行改进,采用流域地表径流模拟代替控制断面水位模拟,彻底解决流域地表产流及河道水位模拟限制,建立"地表径流—流域淹没分析—灾害损失预评估"风险预警模型,提高模型适应性。该模型具有较高的准确性、时效性、可操作性,能够为防灾避难提供科学依据。
Along with global warming, rainstorm flood disaster is increasing, and the loss is more and more serious, so the warning of flood disaster risk is an important foundation for flood disaster prevention and mitigation. In order to meet the demands of flood risk warning and flood emergency management, we improved the spatial simulation of flood system in this study. Based on the combination of numerical simulation technology and spatial technology, such as remote sensing and geographic information systems, we established a risk warning model to improve the model adaptation, which is "surface runoff-basin submerged analysis-disaster risk assessment", using watershed surface runoff simulation instead of water level simulation in controlling section, that completely broke the constraints of watershed surface runoff and river water level simulation. Through the case study, this model shows higher accuracy and better timeliness. It would supply reliable and efficient method for flood disaster prevention and reduction.
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