本文对近20年来中国地表气温变化估算方法进行了全面的总结,并对不同研究者所采用的资料、时间尺度及研究结果进行了对比分析。结合当前国际上应用较多的几种升温估算方法,本文以1970-2007年的气温数据为基础,分别应用直接算术平均法、逐站计算法、区域面积加权法、一级差分法和空间插值法,对中国大陆近40年的升温幅度分别进行了估算,从结果的对比分析中揭示中国地表气温变化估算中存在的不确定性:中国大陆地区近40年来的增温趋势在0.30~0.43℃/10a之间,升温幅度在1.16~1.56℃之间;冬季升温最为显著,夏季升温最少;整体上北方升温幅度高于南方。不同计算方法计算得到的增温速率在绝对值上有着一定差异,但整体趋势是相同的。
The methods used in surface air temperature change estimation in Chinese Mainland during recent 20 years are summarized in this paper, and data materials, temporal scale and results in different researcher's study are contrastively analyzed. Based on the meteorological observation air temperature data from 1970 to 2007 and several popular warming estimation methods internationally used, we estimated the warming trend in recent 40 years. The results of direct average method, calculation by station method, regional area weighted method, first difference method and spatial interpolation method show the same warming trend in recent years and every season in Chinese Mainland, but vary in quantities clearly. The uncertainties in warming estimation with different methods are analyzed and it is concluded that the warming trend in recent 40 years ranges from 0.30-0.43℃/10a, the warming amplitude is between 1.16 and 1.56℃, warming is most apparent in winter and slightest in summer, warming in the northern part is more than in the southern part.
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