滑坡是最常见的一种地质灾害,其主要诱因是降雨。滑坡灾害多发生在雨量充沛地域或洪水季节。南京市受自然环境和地质环境的影响,滑坡是其最主要的地质灾害类型之一,为了有效地预测滑坡的发生情况并最大限度地减少滑坡灾害为南京带来的损失,本文在已有的南京市地质灾害易发区等研究的成果上,结合南京市历史滑坡数据、气象资料和地质灾害预测数学模型构建了南京市滑坡灾害预测方法并确定了南京市滑坡灾害预测预报技术流程。在该预测方法和技术流程的基础上,本文同时应用了数据库技术、ArcGIS Server技术、AJAX远程调用技术、网页局部刷新技术和地图缓存技术等,融合地理信息系统功能与滑坡灾害预测预报业务功能,开发了南京市滑坡灾害预测预报信息共享平台。该平台可以对滑坡灾害基础数据和实时气象数据动态、科学地管理,结合南京市实时降雨数据可实现滑坡灾害预测预报并将灾害信息实时在线发布,同时提供对滑坡灾害信息的查询、检索、统计分析等功能,最终通过该信息共享平台,为南京市滑坡灾害的防灾减灾提供决策支持,为其他需要建立滑坡灾害预测信息共享平台的城市提供参考。

Landslide is the most common form of geological disasters. Its main incentive is rainfall, so landslide often occurs in areas with abundant rainfall or occurs in flood season. Due to natural environmental and geological characteristics of Nanjing City, landslide is a major geological disaster there. In order to forecast landslide hazards effectively and minimize the loss caused by the unexpected landslide hazards, this paper established the landslide hazards weather forecast information sharing platform. On the basis of the existing data of geological hazards-prone areas, we use historic landslide data of Nanjing, meteorological data (rainfall) and the model of geological hazard forecast to establish the method of landslide hazards weather forecast and determine the landslide hazards weather forecast technique in Nanjing City. Then a forecasting information sharing platform is developed. Based on the method and the technology process of landslide hazards forecast, this platform uses C# as the development language and applies the following techniques: the database technology, the ArcGIS Server technology, the.NET technology, the remote call technology, the partial refresh technology of AJAX and the map cache technology. It also merges the geographic information system functions and landslide hazards forecast business functions together. This platform can achieve a dynamic and scientific management of the basic data of landslide hazards and the real-time meteorological data. It also can combine the real-time rainfall data to achieve the prediction of landslide hazard in Nanjing, and then it publishes the landslide hazards information on line in real time. At the same time, it provides the functions of landslide hazards information retrieval and statistical analysis and so on. Ultimately we hope this platform can provide a decision support for the landslide hazards prevention and mitigation and references for other cities which need to build a landslide hazards prediction platform.