人口集疏过程及其空间格局变化是人口空间分布最直观的表现。以1982-2010年4期人口普查数据为基础,采用人口总量和人口密度指标,结合人口增减变化分级、人口商度等方法,定量分析了京津冀都市圈人口集疏过程及其空间格局变化。研究表明:近30年来,京津冀都市圈人口总量呈现持续增长趋势,人口空间分布日益不均衡,区域人口分布存在明显的南北、东西差异;人口增加是主要特征,人口集聚效应凸显,人口增加地区的县域单元比例在80%以上,以人口显著增加为主;人口减少只是零星分布,人口减少地区的县域单元比例占不到20%;人口流动比较频繁,以人口流入为主,主要流向北京、天津和河北的市辖区,人口流出地区仅是散落分布在张家口和承德的山区贫困县域;无论从静态人口指标还是动态人口分析方法,都表明京津冀都市圈人口地域集疏特征十分明显,已形成以北京、天津、石家庄为中心,其他地市(县域)人口分别向外依次扩展的人口多中心分布的圈层结构。

The process of population agglomeration/shrinking and changes in spatial pattern are the most intuitive presentation of the spatial distribution of population. This study focused on the pattern of population agglomeration/shrinking and the overall population evolution trend. In view of this, we took the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region as an example, based on 1982-2010 census data, using the degree of concentration of the population, population increase-decrease change, population migration methods, quantitatively studied the process of population agglomeration/shrinking and changes of spatial pattern in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region. The study shows that the total population continues to grow, but rendering uneven growth in over different areas during nearly 30 years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region. The regional distribution differences of population are obvious, especially between north to south, east to west of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region. Population increase is a main character, more than 80% of the counties possessing a population growth, reflecting the effect of population concentration. Population decrease is just scattered, less than 20% of the counties possessing a population decrease. The population flow is more frequent in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region. Population flow into the region is located in the urban areas of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Population outflow is mainly from the impoverished mountainous counties of Zhangjiakou and Chengde. Both the static demographic indicators and the dynamic analysis method show that the population agglomeration/shrinking and changes of spatial pattern are very obvious. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region has already formed the Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang and other cities as the centers, holding population flow from adjacent counties, i.e., presenting a multi-center structure of population distribution.