基于改进logistic-CA的城市形态多情景模拟预测分析——以天津滨海地区为例
收稿日期: 2013-01-07
修回日期: 2013-03-19
网络出版日期: 2013-06-17
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(1278330)
A Method of Simulation and Prediction of Urban Morphology under Multiscenarios
Received date: 2013-01-07
Revised date: 2013-03-19
Online published: 2013-06-17
logistic-CA模型在城市分析应用中,发挥了重要作用,但该模型仅能模拟历史演化趋势下的城市形态演化,无法准确模拟既定年份的城市面积,更无法模拟预测多情景城市形态演化。因此,本文对logistic-CA模型进行了改进:一是嵌入了灰色不等时距预测模型;二是增加不同情景中驱动力的logistic回归系数计算方法。改进后的logistic-CA模型,具备了模拟多情景城市形态演化的能力,模拟预测了天津市滨海地区2011-2020年3种情景的城市形态的演化空间过程特征,即历史外推、内生发展、外生发展3种情景。从而掌握城市形态扩展的必然性、可能性、特定区域的空间扩展影响因素,实现对城市发展过程的有效控制。
关键词： 预测; 城市形态; logistic-CA; 模拟; 多情景
黄焕春, 运迎霞 . 基于改进logistic-CA的城市形态多情景模拟预测分析——以天津滨海地区为例[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2013 , 15(3) : 380 -388 . DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2013.00380
As one type of CA, logistic-CA now has been successfully adopted in urban studies. But logistic-CA model can only be applied to simulation according to historical evolution trend. Besides, the quantity of prediction in a certain year cannot be correctly obtained. In this study, we have carried out two modifications on the lo-gistic-CA model, one is to insert grey prediction; the other is making the model capable of simulating urban morphology evolution under multi-scenarios. Then we applied this model to simulate and predict urban morphology evolution of the coastal area in Tianjin Municipality, in order to investigate the regularity and characteristics under three scenarios, e.g. historical extrapolation, endogenous development and exogenous development, so as to better grasp urban morphology evolution regularities. The simulation of three scenarios shows that urban morphology inevitably grows followed a cross form,but the characteristic of three scenarios are a lots of differences. Modified logistic-CA model gives full play to the advantage of CA, that is, bottom-up simulation of urban spatial process under multi-scenarios. Through examination, the modified model has a high accuracy in simulation and prediction, which achieves the goal of quantitative simulation and prediction of urban morphology evolution under multi-scenarios. It is necessary for urban planning to master the expansion of the inevitability of urban form, in order to grasp the possibility of a specific area to achieve effective control of the urban development process.
Key words： simulation; logistic-CA; prediction; urban morphology; multi-scenarios
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