黄河三角洲是我国重要的土地后备资源集中分布区,对黄河河口滩地的开垦成为了保持山东省乃至全国耕地动态平衡的关键。本文以东营市、垦利县、河口区和利津县作为研究区,利用6 期(1984、1995、2000、2004、2008和2010年)TM影像,对黄河三角洲地区的耕地资源动态变化和耕地年龄进行了遥感监测和推定,并利用熵权法以植被指数(EVI 和MSAVI)、植被覆盖度(Fv)和温度植被干燥指数(TVDI)为指标因子的耕地生产能力指数构建了评价模型。研究结果表明:在1984-2010 年的26 年时间里,研究区的耕地动态变化显著,新垦耕地面积达到77 362.33hm²,大部分来源于草地的开垦。其中,耕地年龄在8-12年期间的新垦耕地面积最多,占了新垦耕地面积的34.47%;研究区新垦耕地的生产能力指数呈现随着耕作时间的增加而增加的趋势,耕作时间在2-4 年之内的新垦耕地平均生产能力指数,仅有传统耕地平均指数的67.66%;研究区传统耕地的生产能力指数大体上也在随着耕作时间的增加而提高,传统耕地在2010年的平均生产能力指数比1984 年提高了76.51%。

Yellow River Delta is the mainly distribution region of land reserve resources in China. The reclamation at the estuary of the Yellow River beach is becoming the key point of maintaining cultivated land dynamic balance in Shandong Province, even the whole nation. Taking Dongying City, Kenli County, Hekou District and Lijin County as a study area, this paper monitored the dynamic change and retrieved the cultivation age of cultivated land in Yellow River Delta, using TM images of 6 different periods ( 1984, 1995, 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2010 ). Based on cultivation age data, an assessment model of cultivated land productivity was built up by entropy weight method. This model used vegetation index (EVI and MSAVI), vegetation coverage (Fv) and temperature- vegetation dryness index (TVDI) as factors indicating land productivity. Results show that: significant dynamic changes of cultivated land had been occurred from 1984 to 2010 in the study area. During 26 years, 77362.33 ha newly-reclaimed cultivated land, most of which came from grassland, had been reclaimed. In the newly-reclaimed cultivated land, the land at cultivation age during 8 to 12 years had most area, which accounted for 34.47%. The newly-reclaimed cultivated land productivity in the study area presented that productivity increased with the cultivation time increased. Average productivity of newly-reclaimed cultivated land at age during 2 to 4 years had lowest productivity, which was only 67.66% of traditional cultivated land. The traditional cultivated land productivity in the study area also presented that productivity increased with the cultivation time increased. Average productivity of traditional cultivated land in 2010 had increased 76.51% than in 1984.